發(fā)布時間：2018-01-20 02:14

  本文關鍵詞： 亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體 國際資本流動管理 效果　出處：《遼寧大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：國際資本流動管理是當前國際經(jīng)濟領域研究的熱點問題，但關注點始終局限于某一具體政策，尤其是資本管制。但實際上，國際資本流動管理是一個系統(tǒng)性工作，除資本管制外，還涉及宏觀領域和金融領域，即世界上并沒有一項政策能夠單獨成為應對資本流入激增的靈丹妙藥。本文選擇國際資本流動管理的政策框架作為新視角，結合亞洲各國的具體情況，分別從宏觀經(jīng)濟政策調(diào)整、金融體系改革以及資本管制等幾個方面，考察了1997年金融危機后亞洲各國的國際資本流動管理措施，以期為亞洲以及我國在未來制定國際資本流動管理政策提供借鑒。 首先，國際資本流動管理是有其理論支撐的，那便是對國際資本流動的影響機制以及產(chǎn)生的風險的認識。國際資本流入對東道國經(jīng)濟的影響機制包括匯率機制、資產(chǎn)價格機制、財富效應機制、聲譽機制和政策效應機制。國際資本流入在給東道國帶來各種經(jīng)濟利益的同時，也會給東道國宏觀經(jīng)濟和金融穩(wěn)定帶來諸多風險。如果風險沒有得到恰當管理，那么經(jīng)濟體系的風險會不斷積聚，一旦外部沖擊到來或者僅僅是由于預期的突然改變，積累于經(jīng)濟體系內(nèi)的風險會集中釋放，最終引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性的金融危機。 其次，結合亞洲各國的具體情況，分別從宏觀經(jīng)濟政策調(diào)整、金融體系改革以及資本管制等幾個方面，考察了1997年金融危機后亞洲各國的國際資本流動管理措施，并著重探討了各項治理措施的成效。在國際資本大規(guī)模流入時，各國短期內(nèi)都優(yōu)先采用沖銷干預，長期依靠推行更有彈性的匯率制度、加強宏觀經(jīng)濟政策和完善金融體系等。但由于沖銷干預的成本會不斷攀升，且容易陷入內(nèi)外均衡的兩難選擇—選擇穩(wěn)定利率還是選擇穩(wěn)定匯率，而匯率制度、完善金融體系等改革往往需要較長的時期才能收到效果，因此，各國會在中短期內(nèi)使用資本管制措施彌補以上兩種措施的不足。亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)驗表明，資本流動管理并沒有“放之四海而皆準”的且一成不變的固定模式，而且?guī)缀趺恳豁椯Y本流動管理政策都有其局限性。資本流動管理要想達到預期效果，，就必須要根據(jù)各國具體情況（包括政策目標、資本流入的原因和持續(xù)性、資本流動管理工具使用的政治及其他局限性）進行適當權衡，以決定應對資本流入的合適的政策體系。亞洲新興經(jīng)濟體的經(jīng)驗還告訴我們，資本流動管理要想達到預期效果不僅僅需要對各種政策工具的開發(fā)和利用，更需要政策制定者的智慧與勇氣。 最后，本文對全球金融危機后國際資本流動管理的挑戰(zhàn)及其未來努力方向做出了分析。全球金融危機對亞洲進出口貿(mào)易造成沖擊，進而影響其經(jīng)濟增長，再加上外部經(jīng)濟條件的不確定性給亞洲國際資本流動管理提出挑戰(zhàn)。亞洲各國除繼續(xù)強化前期措施外，還應積極利用財政政策和努力推動經(jīng)濟增長，在全球和區(qū)域?qū)用嫱苿蛹w合作。
[Abstract]:International capital flow management is a hot issue in the field of international economy, but the focus is always limited to a specific policy, especially capital control, but in fact. The management of international capital flows is a systematic work, which involves not only the capital control, but also the macro and financial fields. That is, there is no single policy in the world can be a panacea for the surge of capital inflow. This paper chooses the policy framework of international capital flow management as a new perspective, combined with the specific situation of Asian countries. From the aspects of macroeconomic policy adjustment, financial system reform and capital control, this paper examines the international capital flow management measures of Asian countries after the financial crisis in 1997. In order to provide reference for Asia and China to formulate international capital flow management policy in the future. First of all, the management of international capital flows has its theoretical support. The influence mechanism of international capital flow on host economy includes exchange rate mechanism, asset price mechanism and wealth effect mechanism. Reputation mechanism and policy effect mechanism. While bringing various economic benefits to the host country, international capital inflow will also bring many risks to the macroeconomic and financial stability of the host country, if the risk is not properly managed. Then the risks of the economic system will accumulate continuously. Once the external shocks come or simply because of the sudden change of expectations, the risks accumulated in the economic system will be concentrated and released, which will eventually lead to a systemic financial crisis. Secondly, according to the specific conditions of Asian countries, from the macroeconomic policy adjustment, financial system reform and capital control and other aspects. This paper examines the management measures of international capital flows in Asian countries after the financial crisis in 1997, and focuses on the effectiveness of various governance measures. Countries give priority to sterilisation in the short term, rely on a more flexible exchange rate system for a long time, strengthen macroeconomic policies and improve the financial system, etc. However, the cost of sterilisation intervention will continue to rise. And it is easy to fall into the dilemma of internal and external equilibrium-to choose a stable interest rate or a stable exchange rate, and the exchange rate system, improve the financial system and other reforms often take a long time to achieve results, so. Countries will use capital controls in the short and medium term to make up for these two measures. Capital flow management does not have a fixed pattern of "one and all", and almost every capital flow management policy has its limitations. Capital flow management wants to achieve the desired results. Appropriate trade-offs must be made against country-specific circumstances (including policy objectives, the causes and sustainability of capital inflows, and the political and other limitations of the use of capital flow management tools). The experience of emerging Asian economies has also taught us that capital flow management needs more than the development and use of policy tools to achieve the desired results. The wisdom and courage of policy makers are also needed. Finally, this paper analyzes the challenges of the management of international capital flows after the global financial crisis and the direction of its future efforts. The global financial crisis has an impact on Asian import and export trade, thus affecting its economic growth. In addition to the uncertainty of external economic conditions, the management of international capital flows in Asia is challenging. In addition to continuing to strengthen early measures, Asian countries should also actively use fiscal policies and efforts to promote economic growth. Promoting collective cooperation at the global and regional levels.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F831.7

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