本文關鍵詞：中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策研究　出處：《南開大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策 美聯(lián)儲 歐洲央行 中國人民銀行 外匯儲備

【摘要】：2007-2009年的全球金融危機中,以美聯(lián)儲和歐洲央行為首的全球各大央行首次運用中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策,通過改變其資產(chǎn)負債表科目種類和規(guī)模來調節(jié)金融市場和實體經(jīng)濟。本研究從該政策的國際差異入手,創(chuàng)新性地系統(tǒng)揭示了美歐中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策在運用條件、政策影響以及傳導渠道有效性之間的國際差異原因及最優(yōu)政策規(guī)模。同時,在揭示中國人民銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策特點的基礎上,本研究提出了將中國人民銀行龐大的外匯儲備作為一種具有中國特色的中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策的設想。 從實證經(jīng)驗分析來看,本研究發(fā)現(xiàn)美聯(lián)儲與歐洲央行實施中央銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策的積極性存在顯著區(qū)別,原因是利率寬松政策與該擴張政策的相互作用機制不同。美聯(lián)儲表現(xiàn)為“寬松-寬松”循環(huán),歐洲央行為“寬松-緊縮”循環(huán)。其次,該政策的傳導渠道有效性存在很大差異,美聯(lián)儲的資產(chǎn)重新配置渠道比歐洲央行更加有效,信號渠道在短期和中期有效；歐洲央行的信號渠道短期有效,長期則出現(xiàn)反作用。此外,該擴張政策短期內使通脹迅速上升,但長期CPI逐步恢復到均衡水平。同時,該政策對金融市場的調控能力遠強于對實體經(jīng)濟的調控。 從理論研究來看,首先,健康銀行杠桿率對中央銀行信貸政策規(guī)模的影響存在拐點。問題銀行對信貸政策規(guī)模的影響是單調的,影響方向取決于外生的健康銀行杠桿率水平。當需要救助的銀行比例較低時,問題銀行杠桿率越大,越應減少信貸寬松政策規(guī)模。其次,財政部對該政策的最優(yōu)支持力度由無風險收益率、風險溢價、健康銀行杠桿率以及問題銀行杠桿率等因素共同決定。 中國人民銀行資產(chǎn)負債表政策以負債科目種類和規(guī)模調整為主,側重短期微調。由于中國投資于美國國債和風險資產(chǎn)的外匯儲備可以間接轉化為美國對中國實體經(jīng)濟的國外直接投資,以增加中國實體經(jīng)濟的資金供給,因此外匯儲備可以作為資產(chǎn)科目政策工具豐富我國貨幣政策工具。本文發(fā)現(xiàn),只有在滿足一定條件的情況下,中國外匯儲備投資于美國股權越多,則其對外風險資產(chǎn)投資間接轉化為本國私人部門FDI的比例越高。
[Abstract]:In the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the world's major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, used central bank balance sheet policies for the first time. This study starts with the international differences of the policy by changing the types and scale of the balance sheet subjects to regulate the financial markets and the real economy. Innovatively and systematically reveals the reasons for the international difference and the optimal policy scale between the balance sheet policy of the Central Bank of the United States and Europe in terms of the application conditions, the policy impact and the effectiveness of the transmission channel. On the basis of revealing the characteristics of the balance sheet policy of the people's Bank of China, this study puts forward the assumption that the huge foreign exchange reserves of the people's Bank of China should be regarded as a balance sheet policy of the Central Bank with Chinese characteristics. From the empirical analysis, this study found that there are significant differences between the central bank balance sheet policy initiative between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The reason is that interest rate easing interacts with that expansion differently. The Fed performs a "loose-easing" cycle, the ECB a "loose-tightening" cycle. The effectiveness of the transmission channel of this policy varies greatly. The asset reallocation channel of the Federal Reserve is more effective than that of the European Central Bank, and the signal channel is effective in the short and medium term. The ECB's signaling channels are effective in the short term and counterproductive in the long run. In addition, the expansion policy has caused inflation to rise rapidly in the short term, but CPI has gradually returned to equilibrium in the long run. At the same time. The policy's ability to regulate the financial market is much stronger than that of the real economy. From the theoretical point of view, first of all, the impact of health bank leverage ratio on the scale of central bank credit policy has inflection point. The impact of problem banks on the scale of credit policy is monotonous. The direction of influence depends on the level of leverage of exogenous healthy banks. When the proportion of banks in need of rescue is low, the greater the leverage ratio of problem banks, the smaller the scale of credit easing. The Treasury's optimal support for the policy is determined by risk-free yields, risk premiums, leverage ratios of healthy banks and problem banks. The balance sheet policy of the people's Bank of China is dominated by the adjustment of the types and scale of liabilities. Focus on short-term fine-tuning. Since China's foreign exchange reserves invested in US Treasuries and risky assets can be indirectly converted into US foreign direct investment in China's real economy to increase the supply of funds to China's real economy. Therefore, foreign exchange reserves can be used as an asset subject policy tool to enrich China's monetary policy. This paper finds that only if certain conditions are met, the more China's foreign exchange reserves invest in American equity. The higher the ratio of foreign venture capital investment to domestic private sector FDI.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F231.1;F832.31

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