本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國貨幣政策中介目標的選擇研究　出處：《石河子大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 中介目標 可測性 可控性 相關(guān)性

【摘要】：貨幣政策作為校正宏觀經(jīng)濟層面失靈的一種主要的經(jīng)濟政策，其操作框架主要包括四個部分：貨幣政策工具、操作目標、中介目標和最終目標。由于貨幣政策作用機理具有滯后性與動態(tài)性，貨幣政策工具不能直接對最終目標產(chǎn)生影響，而是要通過一些能夠迅速反映經(jīng)濟狀況變化的變量來衡量貨幣政策的效果，以便貨幣當局及時修正貨幣政策操作，這組變量即是貨幣政策的中介目標．因此,貨幣政策中介目標選擇的恰當與否對于一國的貨幣政策的效果有著重要的經(jīng)濟意義。 本文首先明確了我國貨幣政策中介目標研究的背景和意義，對貨幣政策中介目標的定義和選擇標準做了界定，在借鑒貨幣政策中介目標選擇標準的基礎(chǔ)上，對當前我國現(xiàn)階段的貨幣政策中介目標——貨幣供應(yīng)量做了檢驗.由于貨幣供應(yīng)量作為中介目標的有效性值得懷疑,因此基于我國的國情，探討了我國貨幣政策中介目標變更的可行性。當前現(xiàn)階段，我國并不具備變更中介目標的可行性，應(yīng)繼續(xù)采用貨幣供應(yīng)量作為貨幣政策的中介目標，因此從金融創(chuàng)新、匯率制度和貨幣需求函數(shù)的穩(wěn)定性角度分析了貨幣供應(yīng)量作為中介目標適宜性下降的原因。最后根據(jù)原因的分析，提出相應(yīng)的對策建議，以提高貨幣供應(yīng)量作為貨幣政策中介目標的有效性。 根據(jù)文章的寫作思路，得出以下主要結(jié)論：貨幣供應(yīng)量作為我國貨幣政策中介目標的有效性在逐步下降，其可測性和可控性較差，與最終目標的相關(guān)性程度不高;目前我國的經(jīng)濟金融環(huán)境使得我國并不具備變更中介目標的條件。我國在目前尚不能使采用利率和通脹目標制，同時由于社會融資規(guī)模在統(tǒng)計上的固有缺陷和其可控性較差，這一指標也不能作為貨幣政策的中介目標；從長遠來看，由于我國經(jīng)濟金融形勢的不斷變化，我國貨幣政策的中介目標勢必要發(fā)生調(diào)整，但是短期內(nèi)，還應(yīng)當繼續(xù)采用貨幣供應(yīng)量作為我國貨幣政策的中介目標，同時要做好相應(yīng)的配套措施：提高央行的獨立性，增強匯率制度的靈活性，擴大貨幣供應(yīng)量的統(tǒng)計口徑，采用新的貨幣數(shù)量指標，，從而提高貨幣供應(yīng)量作為中介目標的有效性。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy as a major economic policy to correct macroeconomic failure, its operational framework mainly consists of four parts: monetary policy tools, operational objectives. Because the mechanism of monetary policy is lagging and dynamic, monetary policy tools can not directly affect the final goal. It is necessary to measure the effect of monetary policy through some variables which can reflect the change of economic situation quickly, so that the monetary authority can correct the operation of monetary policy in time. This set of variables is the intermediate target of monetary policy. Whether the intermediate target of monetary policy is appropriate or not is of great economic significance to the effect of monetary policy of a country. Firstly, this paper defines the background and significance of the study on the intermediate target of monetary policy in China, and defines the definition and selection criteria of the intermediate target of monetary policy, on the basis of drawing lessons from the criteria for the selection of the intermediate target of monetary policy. This paper tests the intermediate target of monetary policy in our country at present-money supply. Because the validity of money supply as intermediary target is doubtful, it is based on the situation of our country. This paper discusses the feasibility of the change of the intermediate target of monetary policy in China. At present, China does not have the feasibility of changing the intermediate target, and should continue to adopt the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. Therefore, from the perspective of financial innovation, exchange rate system and stability of money demand function, this paper analyzes the reasons for the decline of the suitability of money supply as an intermediary target. Finally, according to the analysis of the reasons, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. To improve the effectiveness of money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy. According to the writing ideas, the following main conclusions are drawn: the effectiveness of money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy in China is gradually declining, and its testability and controllability are poor. The degree of relevance to the final goal is not high; At present, the economic and financial environment of our country makes our country do not have the condition to change the intermediary target. At present, our country can not adopt the interest rate and inflation target system. At the same time, because of the inherent defects of social financing scale in statistics and its poor controllability, this index can not be used as the intermediate target of monetary policy; In the long run, due to the constant changes of our country's economic and financial situation, the intermediate target of our monetary policy is bound to be adjusted, but in the short term. We should also continue to use money supply as the intermediate target of our monetary policy, at the same time, we should do a good job of supporting measures: to improve the independence of the central bank, enhance the flexibility of the exchange rate system. Expand the statistical caliber of money supply, adopt new monetary quantity index, so as to improve the effectiveness of money supply as intermediary target.
【學位授予單位】：石河子大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.0;F224

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