本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)量M1M2剪刀差與通貨膨脹相關(guān)關(guān)系的實(shí)證及應(yīng)用分析　出處：《青島科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟(jì)金融管理 貨幣供應(yīng)量通貨膨脹 宏觀調(diào)控 實(shí)證分析

【摘要】：本文通過闡述貨幣供應(yīng)量以及貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,分析探討貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化與通貨膨脹現(xiàn)象的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,從而研究以貨幣供應(yīng)量結(jié)構(gòu)變化預(yù)測(cè)通貨膨脹率趨勢(shì)的可行性和可靠性,為中央銀行事先制定和執(zhí)行貨幣政策提供參考。作者通過實(shí)證分析和數(shù)據(jù)模型分析方法對(duì)M1M2剪刀差與通貨膨脹率(CPI)的相關(guān)關(guān)系進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,證明了： 1、貨幣供應(yīng)量與通貨膨脹率之間存在密切的相關(guān)關(guān)系,但貨幣供應(yīng)量指標(biāo)對(duì)作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的作用在逐漸下降。 2、回顧歷史,論證了貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)變化與通貨膨脹率變動(dòng),尤其是周期性的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)有著明顯的前后關(guān)系。 3、通過分析貨幣政策變化對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)了貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化反映了經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中客觀變化,在一定程度上是市場(chǎng)的“自發(fā)行為”。 4、通過實(shí)證分析,證明了M1M2剪刀差與CPI有著密切的相關(guān)關(guān)系,二者具有長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,能夠以線性回歸的方式得到驗(yàn)證。M1M2指標(biāo)對(duì)CPI產(chǎn)生影響的長(zhǎng)期性,決定了它能夠?yàn)閻盒酝浕蛲ǹs提供明顯的預(yù)警信號(hào),為貨幣政策提前干預(yù)創(chuàng)造時(shí)機(jī)。 本文的實(shí)踐意義在于,通過理論分析和數(shù)據(jù)論證,M1M2剪刀差指標(biāo)可以作為預(yù)測(cè)通貨膨脹率變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)的一個(gè)先行指標(biāo),通過密切關(guān)注并監(jiān)測(cè)M1M2剪刀差的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),可以提前對(duì)未來物價(jià)走勢(shì)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),從而及時(shí)調(diào)整貨幣政策的方向和力度,完善中央銀行逆周期宏觀調(diào)控行為。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the relationship between the change of money supply structure and the phenomenon of inflation by expounding the influence of money supply and the structure of money supply on the macro economy. Therefore, the feasibility and reliability of predicting the trend of inflation with the change of the structure of money supply are studied. The author verifies the correlation between M1M2 scissors difference and inflation rate (CPI) by empirical analysis and data model analysis. Proved: 1. There is a close correlation between money supply and inflation rate, but the effect of money supply index on the intermediate target of monetary policy is decreasing gradually. 2. Reviewing the history, it is proved that the change of money supply structure is closely related to the change of inflation rate, especially the trend of cyclical change. 3. By analyzing the influence of the change of monetary policy on the structure of money supply, it is found that the change of the structure of money supply reflects the objective changes in economic operation, and to some extent is the "spontaneous behavior" of the market. 4. Through the empirical analysis, it is proved that the M1M2 scissors difference has a close correlation with CPI, and they have a long-term equilibrium relationship. The long-term effect of the .M1M2 index on CPI can be verified by linear regression, which determines that it can provide a clear warning signal for hyperinflation or deflation. Create opportunities for early intervention in monetary policy. The practical significance of this paper lies in the theoretical analysis and data proof that the M1M2 scissors difference index can be used as a leading indicator to predict the trend of inflation rate change. By paying close attention to and monitoring the change trend of M1M2 scissors difference, we can forecast the future price trend in advance and adjust the direction and intensity of monetary policy in time. We will improve the countercyclical macro-control behavior of central banks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.2;F822.5

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