本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于主成分分析法的中國貨幣錯(cuò)配測度研究　出處：《長沙理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：在當(dāng)今以美元為主要貨幣的國際貨幣體系下，發(fā)展中國家出現(xiàn)貨幣錯(cuò)配現(xiàn)象是客觀而又難以回避的事實(shí)。國內(nèi)外大量文獻(xiàn)顯示，歷次出現(xiàn)的貨幣危機(jī)都與危機(jī)發(fā)生國國內(nèi)嚴(yán)重的貨幣錯(cuò)配密切相關(guān)。貨幣錯(cuò)配不僅令這些國家陷入危機(jī)，還會(huì)對危機(jī)發(fā)生國的市場建設(shè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生長遠(yuǎn)影響。自20世紀(jì)90年代以來，我國貨幣錯(cuò)配問題開始凸顯，如何降低貨幣錯(cuò)配對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響成為國內(nèi)學(xué)者研究的議題，其所達(dá)到的共識是，妥善解決貨幣錯(cuò)配帶來的問題只有基于準(zhǔn)確的貨幣錯(cuò)配度量才能實(shí)現(xiàn)，但國內(nèi)學(xué)者對于中國貨幣錯(cuò)配的測度還沒有形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的意見，要么測度模型不夠合理，要么指標(biāo)選取不夠全面。本文通過對比分析國內(nèi)外主要貨幣錯(cuò)配測度模型，基于優(yōu)化測度模型和健全指標(biāo)變量體系的研究目的，提出利用主成分分析法作為我國貨幣錯(cuò)配測度的方法，根據(jù)貨幣錯(cuò)配基本定義，將我國貨幣錯(cuò)配的成因作為測度變量指標(biāo)，實(shí)現(xiàn)對中國貨幣錯(cuò)配的測度，并根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的弱化貨幣錯(cuò)配的建議。 本文首先從貨幣錯(cuò)配理論出發(fā)對貨幣錯(cuò)配的定義和類型進(jìn)行了闡述，其次介紹了國內(nèi)外主要的貨幣錯(cuò)配的測度模型，并對這些測度模型的假設(shè)條件、適用性及存在的缺陷進(jìn)行分析，著重介紹了主成分分析法的基本原理，，并分析了其作為貨幣錯(cuò)配測度模型的優(yōu)勢。 然后，通過縱向?qū)Ρ确治隽酥袊泿佩e(cuò)配現(xiàn)狀，指明我國貨幣錯(cuò)配程度已經(jīng)比較嚴(yán)重。根據(jù)中國現(xiàn)狀分析出我國貨幣錯(cuò)配的成因可以概括為兩類：一是資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債不匹配；二是不匹配的部分受匯率波動(dòng)影響非常大。然后本文將這兩類成因細(xì)分為11個(gè)指標(biāo)來測度我國貨幣錯(cuò)配程度。 最后，本文采用主成分分析法對我國貨幣錯(cuò)配程度進(jìn)行了測算，根據(jù)計(jì)算結(jié)果得出：我國貨幣錯(cuò)配程度整體呈上升態(tài)勢。在初期貨幣錯(cuò)配呈現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)，緩慢上升狀態(tài)。在中期貨幣錯(cuò)配表現(xiàn)為加速上升態(tài)勢。在中后期貨幣錯(cuò)配快速上漲的情況得到了較大遏制，出現(xiàn)了短暫的下降現(xiàn)象。到了后期，貨幣錯(cuò)配程度又開始上升，但上升幅度相比中期有了明顯的下降。 貨幣錯(cuò)配會(huì)帶來通貨膨脹，抑制國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。本文認(rèn)為在中國現(xiàn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下，為減輕貨幣錯(cuò)配需要轉(zhuǎn)變出口導(dǎo)向政策；優(yōu)化外匯儲備政策；深化匯率制度改革，積極發(fā)展國內(nèi)外匯市場；提升人民幣國際化地位；完善國內(nèi)財(cái)政體制，確保財(cái)政收入對社會(huì)保障基金的投入力度，促進(jìn)國內(nèi)消費(fèi)。
[Abstract]:In today's dollar as the main currency of the international monetary system, developing countries currency mismatch is objective and unavoidable fact. A large number of domestic and foreign literature shows that the previous currency crisis occurred in the domestic currency crisis with serious fault and closely related to currency mismatch not only makes these countries in crisis will happen in the crisis of the construction market, the long-term impact of economic development. Since 1990s, China's currency mismatch began to highlight the problem, how to reduce the impact of currency mismatch on China's economy has become a research topic, which reached the consensus is that only the accurate measure of currency based mismatch can be achieved to properly resolve the wrong currency with the problem, but the measure of domestic scholars for the Chinese currency mismatch has not formed a unified opinion, or measure model is not reasonable, to What index selection is not comprehensive enough. Through comparative analysis of the main domestic and foreign currency mismatches with the measure model, optimization model and measure sound objective indicators system based on the analysis, proposed as a method of China's currency mismatch measure using principal component according to the basic definition of currency mismatch, the causes of currency mismatch in China as index variables, implementation measure of China currency mismatch, and put forward the corresponding weakening currency mismatch is proposed according to the empirical results.
This paper starts from the theory of currency mismatch on currency mismatch of the definition and types are described, followed by the introduction of the measure model of the main domestic and foreign currency mismatches with, and these measure model assumptions, applicability and defects analysis, emphatically introduces the basic principle of principal component analysis, and the analysis of currency mismatch measure model.
Then, through the longitudinal comparative analysis of Chinese currency mismatch situation, indicating the degree of currency mismatch in China has been more serious. According to the analysis of the current situation of Chinese causes of currency mismatch in China can be divided into two categories: one is the asset and liability mismatch; two is not, in part by exchange rate fluctuations is very big. Then the two kinds of causes are divided into 11 indicators to measure the degree of currency mismatch in China.
Finally, this paper uses principal component analysis on China's currency mismatch degree was calculated, the result indicates that China's currency mismatch degree of the overall upward trend. In the early stage of currency mismatch show a steady rise in the state. In the interim, slow currency mismatch is accelerating upward trend. With the rapid rise in in the late period of currency mismatches is greatly curbed, there appears the phenomenon of transient decline. In the later stage, the degree of currency mismatch began to rise, but the increase rate is compared to mid has decreased significantly.
Currency mismatch will bring inflation, curb domestic economic growth. This paper argues that in the current economic situation China, need to change the export-oriented policies to reduce the currency mismatch; optimal reserve policy; deepening the reform of exchange rate system, the positive development of the domestic foreign exchange market; improve the RMB internationalization; improve the domestic financial system, to ensure that the fiscal revenue of social security the fund's investment, promote domestic consumption.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F822

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