本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國對外貿(mào)易差額與貨幣供給關(guān)系研究　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 對外貿(mào)易差額 貨幣供給 人口結(jié)構(gòu)

【摘要】：改革開放以來，中國對外貿(mào)易高速發(fā)展，1994年前對外貿(mào)易呈逆差與順差交錯出現(xiàn)的特征，1994年后中國對外貿(mào)易持續(xù)順差。中國由“雙缺口”型國家逐步轉(zhuǎn)變成“反向雙缺口”型國家，中國國內(nèi)儲蓄過剩、對外貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)增加。 隨著貿(mào)易順差持續(xù)增加和外匯儲備不斷累積，中國貨幣供應(yīng)量快速增長，貨幣化率也由1978年的31.8%上升到2012年的187.58%。與此同時，外匯占款替代商業(yè)銀行再貸款成為基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放的主要渠道，改變了貨幣供給機(jī)制。1994到2012年間，商業(yè)銀行再貸款在基礎(chǔ)貨幣中所占比重從60.70%下降到了6.62%，而外匯占款在基礎(chǔ)貨幣中所占比重從26.03%上升到了93.79%。 基于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)基本模型分析表明，對外貿(mào)易差額與貨幣供給相互作用，且在不同特定條件下，兩者之間相互影響的程度不同。嵌入人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動的分析表明，人口結(jié)構(gòu)變動將導(dǎo)致居民跨期消費(fèi)決策的前提條件改變，并使得經(jīng)濟(jì)增長偏向當(dāng)期消費(fèi)品，推動貿(mào)易順差的增長，進(jìn)而影響貨幣供給。 以1991-2010年中國及全球22個主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的國別面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，運(yùn)用截面加權(quán)廣義最小二乘法進(jìn)行計量檢驗，證實貿(mào)易伙伴國國民收入水平、中國國民收入水平、貿(mào)易伙伴國一般物價水平、人民幣名義匯率以及前期外貿(mào)差額等因素對中國對外貿(mào)易差額產(chǎn)生影響。以中國1996年1月至2011年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本進(jìn)行計量檢驗，證實在2009年1月之前，中國對外貿(mào)易差額對廣義貨幣供給、狹義貨幣供給、流通中現(xiàn)金具有顯著的影響，2009年1月-2011年12月間短期內(nèi)貿(mào)易差額的變化明顯地推動了流通中現(xiàn)金的變化。以包括中國在內(nèi)的15個國家和地區(qū)的1991-2010年國別面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本進(jìn)行計量分析，證實貿(mào)易差額與貨幣供給之間不僅存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，而且貿(mào)易差額的變化在一定程度上推動了廣義貨幣、狹義貨幣的變化；短期內(nèi)，貿(mào)易差額與廣義貨幣具有共同的變化趨勢。 以1989-2010年中國大陸30個省級面板數(shù)據(jù)及1989-2010年全球20個主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的國別面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，建立面板協(xié)整和面板誤差修正模型進(jìn)行計量檢驗，，證實勞動年齡人口比重對貿(mào)易差額的長期影響和短期影響均為正，且相對于世界主要20個經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國勞動年齡人口比重對貿(mào)易差額的短期影響更為顯著。以1989-2010年中國省級面板數(shù)據(jù)和世界18個主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的國別面板數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，設(shè)定包含人口結(jié)構(gòu)與對外貿(mào)易差額交互項的回歸方程，進(jìn)行計量檢驗，證實勞動年齡人口是影響貨幣供給的主要因素，而且對外貿(mào)易順差越大，勞動年齡人口比重增加會使貨幣供給增加越多。 當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)過熱時，中央銀行可確立浮動的匯率目標(biāo)，以減緩貿(mào)易收支所帶來的貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張，緩解國內(nèi)通貨膨脹的壓力，維護(hù)國內(nèi)市場的均衡。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度減緩時，中央銀行可確立有管理的浮動匯率目標(biāo)，一方面可以維持貿(mào)易順差，另一方面可以保持貨幣供給的擴(kuò)張，促進(jìn)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)出的增加和國民收入水平的提高，從而保障經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)穩(wěn)定的增長。并在適宜時期內(nèi)適當(dāng)調(diào)整人口生育政策，避免人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化帶來的貿(mào)易收支問題。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade before 1994, foreign trade deficit and a surplus of staggered characteristics, foreign trade surplus China after 1994. Chinese by "double gap" country gradually transformed into "double reverse gap" state, Chinese domestic savings surplus, foreign trade surplus continued to increase.
With the continuous increase of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate, the rapid growth of China money supply, currency rate has increased from 31.8% in 1978 to 187.58%. in 2012 at the same time, foreign exchange to replace the commercial bank loans become the main channel of base money, change the.1994 money supply mechanism 2012, commercial bank loans and in the monetary base in proportion decreased from 60.70% to 6.62%, while the foreign exchange accounts for the monetary base in proportion rose from 26.03% to 93.79%.
The basic model of macro economics analysis shows that based on the balance of trade and currency supply, interaction, and in different specific conditions, the interaction between different levels. Analysis of changes in embedded population structure showed that demographic changes will lead to changes in conditions of residents' intertemporal consumption decisions, and makes the economic growth to the current consumer goods to promote the growth of trade surplus, thereby affecting the money supply.
The country panel data of 1991-2010 Chinese and the world's 22 major economies as samples, using the weighted generalized least squares method for cross section measurement test, confirmed that the trading partners Chinese the level of national income, the level of national income, trading partners in the general price level, the RMB nominal exchange rate and the foreign trade balance and other factors Chinese balance on international trade the monthly data Chinese. From January 1996 to December 2011 for the measurement of test samples, confirmed before January 2009, Chinese trade balance on the broad money supply, narrow money supply, has significant influence on the cash in circulation, January 2009 -2011 year in December between the short term trade balance change significantly promoted the change of cash in circulation. In 15 countries and regions including Chinese, 1991-2010 country panel data as sample analysis, certificate There is not only a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the real trade balance and the money supply, but also to a certain extent, the change of the trade balance promotes the change of the broad currency and the narrow money. In the short run, the trade gap has a common trend with the broad money.
In China, country panel data of 30 years 1989-2010 years and 1989-2010 provincial panel data of 20 major economies in the world as a sample, a panel cointegration and panel error correction model of measurement test, confirmed that the long-term effects of the proportion of working age population on the trade balance and short-term effects are positive, and compared with the world's 20 major economies the body, the short-term impact of the proportion of labor age population China on the trade balance is more significant. The country panel data of 18 major economies 1989-2010 Chinese provincial panel data and the world as a sample, the set contains the regression equation of population structure and the balance of trade interaction, empirically, that the working age population is the main factor the impact of monetary supply, and foreign trade surplus is greater, the proportion of working age population increase in the money supply will increase more.
When the economy is overheating, the central bank can establish floating exchange rate target, in order to reduce the trade balance caused by the expansion of the money supply, alleviate the pressure of domestic inflation, maintain domestic market equilibrium. When economic growth slowed down, the central bank can establish a managed floating exchange rate target, on the one hand to maintain a trade surplus, the other on the one hand can keep the money supply expansion, increase domestic output and raise the level of national income, so as to ensure the sustained and stable economic growth. And in the appropriate period adjust fertility policy, avoid trade balance problems caused the change of population structure.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752;F822.2

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