本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)湖南省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易的影響　出處：《湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 湖南省 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率 反J曲線效應(yīng) 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易

【摘要】：湖南省在農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)面的發(fā)展水平一直領(lǐng)先于全國(guó),自從改革開(kāi)放以后,湖南省的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易業(yè)飛速發(fā)展,湖南省的出口貿(mào)易中,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易為重要貿(mào)易部分,它不但加快了湖南地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度,使生活或生產(chǎn)資料得以滿足,而更為重要的意義在于使農(nóng)民的收入增長(zhǎng)更加穩(wěn)定。然而影響農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差起伏的因素,隨著時(shí)間的發(fā)展,也有著較為微妙的轉(zhuǎn)變,其中一個(gè)極其重要的因素就是匯率,湖南省的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易就在一定程度上受到了人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的影響。通過(guò)進(jìn)出口數(shù)量、出口利潤(rùn)、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格等方面的變化途徑,人民幣匯率較大的影響了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易收支,而且湖南省大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品在世界各國(guó)中的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力相對(duì)偏弱,所以,匯率的杠桿作用在國(guó)際貿(mào)易中就極其明顯。一般而言,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易在人民幣持續(xù)升值的情況下,出口將減少,而進(jìn)口會(huì)增加,進(jìn)而農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的國(guó)內(nèi)供需關(guān)系也會(huì)受其影響而改變,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模和價(jià)格也會(huì)隨之受到影響。 本文的研究對(duì)象是湖南省的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口,運(yùn)用實(shí)證和理論共同分析了湖南省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易究竟怎樣受匯率變動(dòng)的影響,筆者經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算得出,湖南省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口受當(dāng)期的匯率影響十分明顯。原因就是匯率變動(dòng)的影響是有著滯后性的,馬上顯現(xiàn)的可能性不大。湖南省農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易受實(shí)際匯率變動(dòng)的影響也有時(shí)滯效應(yīng),本文經(jīng)過(guò)縝密的研究分析發(fā)現(xiàn),將滯后一期的實(shí)際匯率加入研究后,人民幣升值明顯的抑制了湖南省的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口,但不存在“反J曲線效應(yīng)”。假如,實(shí)際匯率不斷升值,湖南省的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易逆差會(huì)更加擴(kuò)大。最后,筆者得出了,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易以加工貿(mào)易方式為主則受匯率變動(dòng)影響相對(duì)不大,而以一般貿(mào)易方式為主則明顯受匯率影響；加工農(nóng)產(chǎn)品比初級(jí)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口受到匯率變動(dòng)的影響更小。 最后,本文還針對(duì)匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等問(wèn)題提出了自己的建議與政策意見(jiàn),企業(yè)和政府都應(yīng)該為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展而提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品自身的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和質(zhì)量。企業(yè)可以調(diào)整自己的經(jīng)營(yíng)理念,完善農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的品牌建設(shè)和經(jīng)營(yíng)模式,使產(chǎn)品的附加值得以提升；而政府可以對(duì)企業(yè)提供相應(yīng)的福利和幫助,讓企業(yè)的成本有所降低,相應(yīng)的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品管理體系和無(wú)公害農(nóng)產(chǎn)品基地也應(yīng)該盡快的完善和建立起來(lái)。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the agricultural product trade of Hunan Province has developed rapidly. In the export trade of Hunan Province, agricultural product trade is an important part of trade. It not only accelerates the economic growth in Hunan, but also satisfies the living and production resources. The more important significance is to make farmers' income growth more stable. However, the factors that affect the fluctuation of agricultural trade deficit also have a more subtle change with the development of time. One of the most important factors is the exchange rate. Trade in agricultural products in Hunan Province is affected to a certain extent by the RMB exchange rate changes. Through the volume of imports and exports, export profits. The change of agricultural products price and other ways, RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on agricultural trade income and expenditure, and the competitiveness of large agricultural products in Hunan Province in the world is relatively weak, so. The leverage of exchange rate is very obvious in international trade. Generally speaking, trade in agricultural products will reduce exports and increase imports when the RMB continues to appreciate. Furthermore, the domestic supply and demand relationship of agricultural products will be affected by it, and the scale and price of agricultural products will also be affected. The research object of this paper is the agricultural product export of Hunan province. The author analyzes how the agricultural product export trade of Hunan Province is affected by the change of exchange rate with the help of empirical and theoretical analysis. The export of Hunan agricultural products is obviously affected by the exchange rate in the current period. The reason is that the effect of the exchange rate change is lagging behind. Hunan agricultural product trade is affected by the real exchange rate changes also has the time delay effect, this article through the careful research analysis discovers, will lag one period of real exchange rate to add after the research. The appreciation of RMB has obviously restrained the agricultural product export of Hunan province, but there is no "anti-J curve effect". If the real exchange rate is continuously rising, the trade deficit of agricultural products in Hunan Province will be enlarged. Finally. The author draws the conclusion that the main way of agricultural product trade is processing trade, but the influence of exchange rate is relatively small, while the general trade mode is obviously affected by exchange rate. Processed agricultural products are less affected by exchange rate movements than primary agricultural exports. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions and policy suggestions on exchange rate risk. Enterprises and governments should improve the competitiveness and quality of agricultural products for the development of agricultural trade. Enterprises can adjust their own management ideas and improve the brand construction and management mode of agricultural products. Increase the added value of products; And the government can provide the corresponding welfare and help to the enterprise, so that the cost of the enterprise can be reduced, the corresponding agricultural product management system and the pollution-free agricultural product base should also be improved and established as soon as possible.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F832.6

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