本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國上市公司股票價(jià)格與財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)相關(guān)性研究　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：股票價(jià)格的不斷波動(dòng)是股票市場的重要特征，而對股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)造成影響的因素有諸多方面，其中上市公司財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對股票價(jià)格的影響最為重要。國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對上市公司財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與股票價(jià)格的相關(guān)性均做了大量研究，對兩者的關(guān)系有了較為透徹的認(rèn)知，在投資實(shí)踐中具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。但是，國外的研究主要針對成熟的證券市場，對于新興市場較少涉及，未有深入研究；國內(nèi)的研究僅僅單獨(dú)針對股票市場研究，未聯(lián)系到我國整個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。 在我國這個(gè)未成熟的股票市場中，財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與股票價(jià)格的相關(guān)性是否會(huì)隨時(shí)間的延長而變化？財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對于不同行業(yè)的影響相同嗎？財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的穩(wěn)定性會(huì)對股票收益造成影響嗎？通過對這些問題的研究，可以預(yù)測未來股票市場的變化趨勢，，有助于投資者做出正確的投資決策，具有一定的實(shí)際意義。 本文正是從上述幾個(gè)問題出發(fā)，選取了滬深兩市22個(gè)行業(yè)220家A股上市公司作為本文的研究樣本，對其2006年至2011年的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)與其下一年度即2007年至2012年股票價(jià)格之間的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。本文共分為六個(gè)部分：第一部分是引言，提出了本文的選題背景及意義，并簡述了本文的研究思路及方法，概括了本文的主要工作及創(chuàng)新之處；第二部分是文獻(xiàn)綜述，包括國內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)研究及國外文獻(xiàn)研究這兩個(gè)部分；第三部分是相關(guān)理論介紹，分別簡述了影響股票價(jià)格的因素、有效市場理論、財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)作用于股票市場的機(jī)理及股票的定價(jià)模型；第四部分是實(shí)證假設(shè)與設(shè)計(jì)，在對理論概括的基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出了六個(gè)實(shí)證假設(shè)，試圖從產(chǎn)業(yè)升級趨勢及財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)穩(wěn)定性方面來尋找未來的投資對象，隨后分別進(jìn)行了樣本的選擇及數(shù)據(jù)來源、樣本變量的選取與定義和變量的描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析這三個(gè)步驟，并為模型實(shí)證打下了堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)；第五部分是實(shí)證分析，針對本文之前提出的六個(gè)實(shí)證假設(shè)，通過總體樣本實(shí)證、分行業(yè)樣本實(shí)證及財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)穩(wěn)定性與收益實(shí)證這三個(gè)步驟進(jìn)行模型驗(yàn)證；第六部分為本文通過研究得出的結(jié)論與提出的建議。 通過對本文提出的實(shí)證假設(shè)進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證，本文得出了以下的研究結(jié)論：在總體樣本情況下，歷年的最優(yōu)模型表明，每股收益、托賓Q比率及每股凈資產(chǎn)對股票價(jià)格存在的正向的影響；在分行業(yè)研究方面，財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)對新興及大消費(fèi)行業(yè)和傳統(tǒng)及重化工行業(yè)的股票價(jià)格影響確實(shí)具有差異性，在其他條件不變的情況下，每股收益對新興及大消費(fèi)的行業(yè)股票價(jià)格的影響大于對傳統(tǒng)及重化工業(yè)股票價(jià)格的影響，每股凈資產(chǎn)對新興及大消費(fèi)行業(yè)股票價(jià)格的影響小于對傳統(tǒng)及重化工業(yè)股票價(jià)格的影響；低增長組合公司的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)穩(wěn)定性與股票收益之間存在著顯著正相關(guān)，但高增長組合公司的財(cái)務(wù)穩(wěn)定性和股票收益之間的關(guān)系并不顯著。 并對投資者提出以下投資建議：投資者在選擇未來的投資對象時(shí)，應(yīng)對新興及大消費(fèi)行業(yè)予以重點(diǎn)關(guān)注；針對新興及大消費(fèi)行業(yè)應(yīng)選取每股收益較高且有良好發(fā)展前景的上市公司，針對傳統(tǒng)及重化工行業(yè)應(yīng)選取每股凈資產(chǎn)較高抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力較強(qiáng)的上市公司；投資者應(yīng)在財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)穩(wěn)定低增長的上市公司中挖掘投資對象。
[Abstract]:Keep the stock price volatility is an important feature of the stock market, and the factors affect the stock price fluctuation has many aspects, which influence the financial index of listed companies on the stock price is the most important. Domestic and foreign scholars on the financial indicators and stock price correlation have done a lot of research on the relationship between them. Have a more thorough cognition, has certain guiding significance in investment practice. However, foreign studies mainly focus on the mature securities market, for emerging markets less involved, not in-depth study; the domestic research solely for the stock market research, not linked to changes in China's overall macroeconomic structure.
In this immature Chinese stock market, whether the relationship between financial index and stock price will change with time? Financial indicators for the effects of different industries vary? The financial stability index will affect the stock return? Based on these studies, can forecast the future trend of the stock market. To help investors make the right investment decisions, it has a certain practical significance.
This paper is starting from the above-mentioned problems, chooses 22 industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen two city 220 A shares of listed companies as a sample of this study, on the financial index from 2006 to 2011 and the next year between 2007 to 2012 the stock price correlation analysis. This paper is divided into six parts: the first part is an introduction, presents the background and significance of this paper, and introduces the ideas and methods of this study, summarizes the main work and innovation; the second part is literature review, including the domestic and foreign literature research and literature research of the two parts; the third part introduces the related theories, the influence factors of stock the price of this paper, the theory of effective market, the pricing model of financial index mechanism in the stock market and stock; the fourth part is the empirical hypothesis and design, on the general theory On the basis, this paper puts forward six hypotheses, attempts from the industry to upgrade the stability and financial indicators for the future trend of the investment object, then choose the sample selection and data sources, and descriptive statistical analysis of variables and define the three steps of sample variables, and lays a solid foundation for the empirical model; the fifth part is the empirical analysis, based on six empirical hypotheses proposed by the overall sample, empirical, empirical and financial industry sample stability index and return the three steps model of empirical verification; the sixth part is the research conclusions and suggestions.
Verified by the empirical hypothesis to put forward in this paper, we draw the following conclusion: in the overall sample, the optimal model shows that over the years, Tobin Q earnings per share, and net assets per share on the stock price have a positive influence; in industry research, financial indicators of the emerging high consumption industry and the traditional heavy chemical industry and the influence of stock price has the difference, in other conditions remain unchanged, the impact of the industry earnings per share of the emerging high consumption of stock prices is greater than the impact on the traditional heavy chemical industry and the stock price impact, net assets per share of the emerging high consumption industry stock price is less than the impact on the traditional and the heavy chemical industry stock price; there is a significant correlation between financial stability index and stock returns low growth portfolio companies, but the combination of high growth company property The relationship between business stability and stock returns is not significant.
And put forward the following investment advice to investors: investors in the choice of future investment targets, with the emerging high consumption industry to focus on; for the emerging high consumption industry should select the earnings per share is high and there are good prospects for development of listed companies, according to the traditional heavy chemical industry anti risk ability to select the net assets per share higher listed companies; investors should mining investments in the financial indicators of low and stable growth of listed companies.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F832.51

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