本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動對我國與東盟六國貿(mào)易收支的影響研究　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率 貿(mào)易收支 東盟六國 面板模型

【摘要】：在國際貿(mào)易中最重要的調(diào)節(jié)杠桿是匯率,匯率變動是影響國際收支的重要因素之一同時,匯率變動影響貿(mào)易收支的研究也一直是國際金融學(xué)界研究的熱點(diǎn)和難點(diǎn)問題之一當(dāng)前我國面臨著由貿(mào)易收支順差積累的巨額國際儲備和巨大人民幣升值壓力,所以本文選擇當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)熱點(diǎn)問題——人民幣匯率波動對我國貿(mào)易收支的問題為切入點(diǎn),參考國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),對人民幣匯率波動對我國與東盟貿(mào)易收支的影響進(jìn)行研究。本文擬在理論、數(shù)理統(tǒng)計和實(shí)證角度來研究自2005年7月21日匯改以來人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動對我國與東盟貿(mào)易收支的影響,主要選取東盟中六國(即印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、新加坡、越南、泰國和菲律賓)為代表進(jìn)行研究。目前東盟已超越日本成為中國第三大貿(mào)易伙伴,中國也是東盟的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴,因此東盟在中國對外貿(mào)易中占有重要地位。 本文采用GARCH模型、最小二乘估計法和面板模型分析了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)波動和我國與東盟六國貿(mào)易收支狀況。由GARCH模型測得人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)的波動性具有很高的持續(xù)性,當(dāng)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)受到?jīng)_擊時,在短期內(nèi)難以消除。本文采取2005年第一季度至2012年第四季度的數(shù)據(jù),通過最小二乘估計法所得的我國與東盟六國的進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易方程,進(jìn)一步采用面板模型在整體上研究我國與東盟六國貿(mào)易收支總量的關(guān)系,得到我國與東盟六國的貿(mào)易收支受到人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動的影響較大的結(jié)論。 通過實(shí)證研究分析的結(jié)論,得知人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率升高(即人民幣升值),會縮小我國貿(mào)易收支順差,人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率波動對中國與東盟六國的貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生國別效應(yīng)。對中國而言,在努力擴(kuò)大出口促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同時應(yīng)該兼顧國家發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,可采取的措施有完善匯率政策、對貿(mào)易政策的調(diào)整和對產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的調(diào)整等。
[Abstract]:The most important regulating lever in international trade is the exchange rate, and the exchange rate change is one of the important factors affecting the balance of payments at the same time. The research on the effect of exchange rate change on trade balance has always been one of the hot and difficult issues in international financial circles. At present, our country is faced with huge international reserves accumulated by trade balance surplus and huge pressure of RMB appreciation. So this article chooses the current economic hot issue-RMB exchange rate fluctuation to our country trade income and expenditure question as the breakthrough point, consults the domestic and foreign related literature. This paper studies the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the trade balance between China and ASEAN. From the point of view of mathematical statistics and empirical analysis, this paper studies the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on the trade balance between China and ASEAN since the exchange rate reform in July 21st 2005, and mainly selects six ASEAN countries (namely Indonesia). ASEAN has overtaken Japan as China's third largest trading partner and China is ASEAN's largest trading partner. So ASEAN occupies an important position in China's foreign trade. GARCH model is used in this paper. The volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate index and the trade balance between China and ASEAN are analyzed by least square estimation method and panel model. The volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate index is obtained by GARCH model. High persistence. When the real effective exchange rate index of RMB is hit, it is difficult to eliminate in the short term. This paper adopts the data from in the first quarter of 2005 to in the fourth quarter of 2012. Through the least square estimation of the import and export trade equation between China and ASEAN six countries, the panel model is used to study the overall relationship between China and ASEAN six countries' total trade balance. It is concluded that the trade balance between China and ASEAN countries is greatly affected by the fluctuation of RMB real effective exchange rate. Through the conclusion of the empirical analysis, we know that the increase of the real effective exchange rate of RMB (that is, the appreciation of RMB) will reduce the surplus of China's trade balance. The fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a country-specific effect on the trade balance between China and the six ASEAN countries. For China, the national development strategy should be taken into account while trying to expand exports to promote economic growth. Some measures can be taken, such as perfecting exchange rate policy, adjusting trade policy and adjusting industrial policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7

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