本文關(guān)鍵詞：人民幣匯率對我國房地產(chǎn)價格的影響：理論與實證　出處：《華東師范大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣匯率 房地產(chǎn)價格 傳導機制 協(xié)整檢驗 格蘭杰因果檢驗

【摘要】：近幾年,隨著我國匯率制度的調(diào)整,人民幣持續(xù)升值,國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)攀升,已經(jīng)成為我國經(jīng)濟兩大熱點話題。2003年以來,中央出臺了一系列房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策,旨在抑制房價過快上漲和房地產(chǎn)投資過熱,但效果并不顯著。另一方面,2005年7月21日,中國人民銀行公布匯率改革方案,從此,人民幣匯率不再釘住單一美元,而開始以外匯市場供求為基礎(chǔ)實行參考一籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)、施行有管理的浮動匯率制度。隨著中國經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)增長以及我國匯率制度的市場化改革,人民幣升值預期重啟,2005年7月至2012年12月31日,人民幣對美元中間匯率由8.1(直接標價法)降低至6.28,人民幣升值幅度近23%。 本文結(jié)合人民幣升值和中國房價高企的背景,在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,從資本市場、商品市場、貨幣市場三方面歸納總結(jié)了匯率對房地產(chǎn)價格的傳導機制。在一般均衡的分析框架下,根據(jù)我國的具體國情,從供需兩個層面出發(fā),建立了匯率和房地產(chǎn)價格模型,通過單位根、協(xié)整及格蘭杰因果檢驗對匯改后的人民幣匯率與中國房地產(chǎn)價格的關(guān)聯(lián)效應進行了實證研究,并得到以下主要結(jié)論：1)匯率(間接標價法)與房地產(chǎn)價格存在長期正向影響關(guān)系；2)匯率是房地產(chǎn)價格及一般物價水平的格蘭杰原因,匯率的預期傳導及貨幣傳導機制同時作用于我國房地產(chǎn)價格市場。最后,本文結(jié)合實證結(jié)論嘗試性地重點從匯率角度提出相應政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the adjustment of China's exchange rate system, the RMB continues to appreciate, the domestic real estate asset prices continue to rise, has become two hot topics in our economy. Since 2003. The central government has introduced a series of real estate regulation and control policies aimed at curbing excessive housing prices and overheated real estate investment, but the effect is not significant. On the other hand, July 21st 2005. The people's Bank of China announced its exchange rate reform plan. From then on, the RMB exchange rate was no longer pegged to a single dollar, but began to be adjusted on the basis of the supply and demand of foreign exchange markets with reference to a basket of currencies. Implementation of managed floating exchange rate regime. With the sustained growth of China's economy and the market-oriented reform of China's exchange rate regime, the expectation of RMB appreciation restarts, from July 2005 to December 31st 2012. The yuan fell to 6.28 against the dollar from 8.1, and the yuan appreciated nearly 23 cents. This paper combines the background of RMB appreciation and high house prices in China, on the basis of previous studies, from the capital market, commodity market. The paper summarizes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate to real estate price from three aspects. Under the framework of general equilibrium analysis, according to the specific conditions of our country, from the two levels of supply and demand. This paper establishes the exchange rate and real estate price model, and through unit root, cointegration and Granger causality test, makes an empirical study on the correlation effect between RMB exchange rate and Chinese real estate price after the exchange rate reform. And get the following main conclusion: 1) Exchange rate (indirect pricing method) has a long-term positive relationship with real estate prices; 2) Exchange rate is the Granger reason of real estate price and general price level. Combined with empirical conclusions, this paper tries to put forward corresponding policy recommendations from the point of view of exchange rate.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.6

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