本文關(guān)鍵詞：歐債危機(jī)影響外匯市場(chǎng)的貿(mào)易渠道研究　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：自改革開放以來，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速發(fā)展，特別是對(duì)外貿(mào)易得到很大程度的提高。我國外貿(mào)依存度大，這既有利于我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，也存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2007年美國次貸危機(jī)以來，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度放緩，中國也不例外，，出口下降，股市下跌等問題一一顯現(xiàn)。因此，對(duì)歐債危機(jī)通過國際貿(mào)易渠道對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的影響的研究就顯得十分必要。復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論利用數(shù)學(xué)矩陣能夠直觀、形象的描述國際貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)，通過進(jìn)一步計(jì)算可以得出歐債危機(jī)通過國際貿(mào)易渠道的傳播系數(shù)。 本文在復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論的基礎(chǔ)上，通過國際貿(mào)易的出口數(shù)據(jù)，主要考慮每個(gè)國家的主要出口目的國，刻畫了國際貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)。同時(shí)考慮了GDP、GDP平減指數(shù)、貨幣和準(zhǔn)貨幣的增長率等每個(gè)國家的自身因素，提煉出歐債危機(jī)通過國際貿(mào)易渠道影響外匯市場(chǎng)的因素。首先系統(tǒng)的介紹了歐債危機(jī)影響外匯市場(chǎng)的渠道并對(duì)國際貿(mào)易渠道進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的闡述，并且運(yùn)用復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論是來描述國際貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)；其次利用每個(gè)國家前五個(gè)出口目的國數(shù)據(jù)，利用數(shù)學(xué)矩陣描述了國際貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)；最后通過相關(guān)計(jì)算得出歐債危機(jī)通過國際貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)的影響和傳播系數(shù)，并通過因子分析得出影響傳播效應(yīng)的因素。 總之，本文是將復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論與債務(wù)危機(jī)傳播理論相結(jié)合，得出比較直觀的結(jié)果，在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)我國如何阻斷歐債危機(jī)傳播給予了指導(dǎo)性的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, especially the foreign trade has been greatly improved. China's foreign trade has a large degree of dependence, which is conducive to the development of our economy. Since 2007, the global economic growth has slowed down, China is no exception, exports are falling, the stock market is falling, and so on. It is necessary to study the influence of the European debt crisis on the foreign exchange market through international trade channels. The complex network theory can describe the international trade network intuitively and vividly by using the mathematical matrix. Through further calculation, we can get the transmission coefficient of European debt crisis through international trade channel. On the basis of complex network theory, this paper mainly considers the main export destination countries of each country through the export data of international trade, and describes the international trade network. At the same time, it takes GDP into account. The GDP deflator, the growth rate of currencies and quasi currencies, and so on each country's own factors. The factors that the European debt crisis affects the foreign exchange market through the international trade channel are refined. Firstly, the channel of the European debt crisis affecting the foreign exchange market is introduced systematically and the international trade channel is elaborated in detail. And use the complex network theory to describe the international trade network; Secondly, using the data of the top five export destination countries of each country, the international trade network is described by using the mathematical matrix; Finally, the influence and transmission coefficient of European debt crisis on foreign exchange market through international trade network are obtained by correlation calculation, and the factors influencing transmission effect are obtained by factor analysis. In a word, this paper combines the theory of complex network with the theory of debt crisis communication, and draws a more intuitive result. On this basis, it gives some instructive suggestions on how to block the spread of European debt crisis in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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