本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融危機(jī)視角下的貨幣政策決策研究　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融危機(jī) 貨幣政策 決策時(shí)機(jī) 決策機(jī)制 決策效果

【摘要】：全球金融危機(jī)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)烈沖擊使作為金融核心的貨幣政策決策研究成為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)問(wèn)題之一。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明：虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)在現(xiàn)代社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的份量越來(lái)越大，其對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的推動(dòng)和破壞作用均是巨大的，，在進(jìn)行政策決策時(shí)必須予以充分關(guān)注和考慮。因此，深入總結(jié)和研究歷次金融危機(jī)中各國(guó)貨幣政策的操作及其成效，優(yōu)化我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)的貨幣政策決策機(jī)制，成為我國(guó)貨幣政策理論研究的一項(xiàng)重要課題。 本文研究基于貨幣政策非中性的理論前提，綜合運(yùn)用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、金融市場(chǎng)學(xué)、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)等相關(guān)學(xué)科知識(shí)，從貨幣政策決策的概念出發(fā)，在回顧總結(jié)近百年來(lái)歷次金融危機(jī)中各國(guó)貨幣政策決策經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，深入探討貨幣政策決策的機(jī)制和依據(jù)，并且對(duì)貨幣政策決策的有效性進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。全文遵循“理論推演——實(shí)證分析——國(guó)際比較——對(duì)策建議”的研究范式，多角度、多層面、深入系統(tǒng)地剖析金融危機(jī)視角下的貨幣政策決策問(wèn)題，并提出一整套切實(shí)可行的優(yōu)化我國(guó)貨幣政策操作策略，提高我國(guó)貨幣政策決策有效性的創(chuàng)新策略。 概括起來(lái)，貨幣政策理論的主要爭(zhēng)議在于其決策究竟是“相機(jī)抉擇”還是“按規(guī)則行事”。在1977年以前，似乎是相機(jī)抉擇優(yōu)越于規(guī)則行事，但當(dāng)動(dòng)態(tài)非一致性概念引入到宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域后，“按規(guī)則行事”第一次有了堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論支撐。金融危機(jī)期間一國(guó)央行應(yīng)采取怎樣的貨幣政策以緩解危機(jī)、促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)盡快復(fù)蘇，學(xué)者們就危機(jī)期間實(shí)行緊縮性還是擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策展開(kāi)了激烈爭(zhēng)論。2008年全球金融危機(jī)中，國(guó)際上又出現(xiàn)將包括非常規(guī)貨幣政策在內(nèi)的量化寬松和信貸寬松貨幣政策納入央行政策工具的創(chuàng)新舉措，大大豐富了貨幣政策決策理論研究。 就貨幣政策決策的時(shí)機(jī)選擇而言，文章運(yùn)用實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的分析方法，旨在為貨幣政策決策的時(shí)間窗口判斷提供可靠依據(jù)。在決策主體的高效決策及政策規(guī)則的恰當(dāng)選擇下，通過(guò)構(gòu)建基于MS-VAR的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型，綜合貨幣危機(jī)指數(shù)、銀行危機(jī)指數(shù)和資產(chǎn)泡沫危機(jī)指數(shù)三個(gè)指標(biāo)衡量我國(guó)金融體系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，預(yù)測(cè)貨幣政策執(zhí)行的時(shí)間點(diǎn)，保障貨幣政策制定與執(zhí)行的適時(shí)、適度。 在分析幾次大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中各國(guó)貨幣政策操作策略的基礎(chǔ)上，文章重點(diǎn)研究了金融危機(jī)視角下我國(guó)貨幣政策的決策機(jī)制。通過(guò)分析貨幣政策決策主體的獨(dú)立性特征及貨幣政策決策主體的行為特征，發(fā)現(xiàn)強(qiáng)化中央銀行決策的獨(dú)立性依然是現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)央行的總體發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。梳理貨幣政策的工具規(guī)則與目標(biāo)規(guī)則，在金融危機(jī)背景下探索適合我國(guó)貨幣政策的決策規(guī)則，分析認(rèn)為通貨膨脹目標(biāo)規(guī)則是我國(guó)貨幣政策規(guī)則未來(lái)的較好選擇。 從有效性評(píng)價(jià)和檢驗(yàn)來(lái)看，一方面，常規(guī)貨幣政策對(duì)物價(jià)穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都有一定的作用。金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前后，貨幣政策效應(yīng)都具有明顯的非對(duì)稱(chēng)性，貨幣政策緊縮效應(yīng)大于擴(kuò)張效應(yīng)。另一方面，非常規(guī)貨幣政策在金融危機(jī)背景下對(duì)穩(wěn)定金融市場(chǎng)起到一定的作用。通過(guò)對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)三大類(lèi)創(chuàng)新性貨幣政策工具有效性的檢驗(yàn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)定期拍賣(mài)便利（TAF）、主經(jīng)紀(jì)商融資便利（PDCF）和資產(chǎn)支持商業(yè)票據(jù)貨幣市場(chǎng)共同基金流動(dòng)便利（AMLF）等信貸類(lèi)的貨幣政策工具有顯著的有效性，而其他資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)類(lèi)的貨幣政策工具效果不佳。 比較分析在上世紀(jì)30年代美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)“大蕭條”、20世紀(jì)90年代日本金融危機(jī)、1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)以及2008年國(guó)際金融危機(jī)中代表性國(guó)家的貨幣政策決策，深刻總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)與啟示。在全球金融危機(jī)的視角下，論述提高我國(guó)貨幣政策決策有效性的一系列政策措施，包括：強(qiáng)化我國(guó)貨幣政策決策主體的獨(dú)立性、實(shí)行彈性的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制、提高貨幣政策透明度、增強(qiáng)非常規(guī)政策的有效性等，使我國(guó)貨幣政策決策的規(guī)則選擇更加完善，充分發(fā)揮貨幣政策的承諾效應(yīng)，以便中央銀行的貨幣政策決策能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)獨(dú)立、高效。 本文研究兼具理論性和實(shí)用性，是理論指導(dǎo)實(shí)踐的研究成果，其理論上的貢獻(xiàn)是首次系統(tǒng)定義貨幣政策決策，厘清金融危機(jī)環(huán)境下貨幣政策決策的作用機(jī)理，構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)的理論分析框架；實(shí)踐中的貢獻(xiàn)則是嘗試建立有普遍適用意義的識(shí)別、化解和救助金融危機(jī)的貨幣政策決策一般模型和方法，并對(duì)我國(guó)的貨幣政策決策與金融危機(jī)進(jìn)行仿真分析，為完善我國(guó)貨幣政策操作策略提供智力支持。
[Abstract]:The strong impact of the global financial crisis on the macro - economy has made the research on monetary policy decision - making as the core of the financial industry a key problem that the economic academic community pays attention to . The experience of developed countries shows that the virtual economy is more and more important in the modern social economy , and it must pay close attention and consideration when making policy decision - making . Therefore , it is an important topic in the study of monetary policy in China to sum up and study the operation and effectiveness of monetary policy in the past financial crisis and optimize our country ' s monetary policy decision - making mechanism to deal with the financial crisis . Based on the non - neutral theory premise of monetary policy , this paper discusses the mechanism and basis of monetary policy decision - making based on the concept of macro - economics , financial market science , econometrics and statistics , and makes an empirical test on the effectiveness of monetary policy decision - making . Generally speaking , the main dispute of monetary policy theory is whether its decision is " camera choice " or " act according to rules " . Before 1977 , it appeared to be the choice of camera to be superior to the rule , but when the concept of dynamic non - consistency was introduced into the field of macro economics , " acting on the rules " for the first time had a strong theoretical support . In the global financial crisis in 2008 , scholars have taken quantitative easing and credit easing monetary policy , including non - conventional monetary policy , into the innovation of central bank policy tools , which greatly enriched the theoretical study of monetary policy decision - making . Based on MS - VAR financial risk pre - warning model , comprehensive money crisis index , bank crisis index and asset bubble crisis index , the paper analyzes the risk situation of China ' s financial system , predicts the time point of monetary policy implementation , and guarantees the timely and moderate monetary policy making and implementation . On the basis of analyzing the operation strategies of monetary policy in several large - scale economic crises , this paper focuses on the decision - making mechanism of monetary policy in our country from the perspective of financial crisis . Through analyzing the characteristics of the independence of monetary policy decision - making body and the behavioral characteristics of monetary policy decision - making body , it is found that strengthening the independence of the decision - making of the central bank is still the general trend of the central bank in China . On the one hand , conventional monetary policy plays an important role in price stability and economic growth on the one hand . Monetary policy effect has obvious asymmetry before and after the outbreak of financial crisis , and monetary policy tightening effect is greater than expansion effect . On the other hand , non - conventional monetary policy plays a certain role in stabilizing financial market in the background of financial crisis . A Comparative Analysis of the Great Depression of the American Economy in the 1930s In the view of the global financial crisis , the paper discusses a series of policy measures to improve the policy - making effectiveness of China ' s monetary policy . This paper studies the theory and practicability , which is the research result of theory guiding practice . The theoretical contribution is to define monetary policy decision - making in the first system , to clarify the mechanism of monetary policy decision - making in the financial crisis , and to construct the theoretical analysis framework of the system . The contribution in practice is to try to establish the general model and method of monetary policy decision - making with universal application meaning , and to analyze the monetary policy decision - making and financial crisis in our country , and provide intellectual support for perfecting the policy operation strategy in China .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.59;F822.0

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