本文關(guān)鍵詞：香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展研究　出處：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 人民幣離岸市場 即期市場 遠(yuǎn)期市場 套利 套匯

【摘要】：香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展,初期是市場自發(fā)啟動,我國中央政府對香港特別行政區(qū)的人民幣業(yè)務(wù)的政策支持也主要是為了支持個人居民跨境流動消費(fèi)所需,如內(nèi)地居民在香港地區(qū)使用人民幣購物。但是,2008年金融危機(jī)以來,對于以美元為基礎(chǔ)的國際貨幣體系有較多的批評,我國政府確立了“推進(jìn)人民幣國際化,加快東亞區(qū)域貨幣合作和倡導(dǎo)實(shí)施國際貨幣體系改革”的戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo),而香港人民幣離岸市場是人民幣國際化的重要內(nèi)容和支撐,香港人民幣離岸市場取得了迅速的發(fā)展,目前已經(jīng)成為境外最大的人民幣離岸中心,初步建立了較完整的離岸市場體系,并為境外人民幣業(yè)務(wù)提供重要的支付結(jié)算、投資支持。但在此過程中,也產(chǎn)生了跨境套利、影響中國內(nèi)地貨幣政策等問題,進(jìn)一步影響到我國中央政府對于人民幣國際化政策的決策。而香港人民幣離岸市場屬于政策推動型的離岸市場,其發(fā)展受到我國中央政府政策的直接影響,因此這些問題及爭議必須影響香港人民幣離岸市場的未來發(fā)展。本文對于香港人民幣離岸市場的構(gòu)成、發(fā)展背景、發(fā)展過程、目前成果、當(dāng)前的主要問題和影響進(jìn)行了比較全面的論述和分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了相關(guān)政策建議。 香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展具有一定優(yōu)勢。從現(xiàn)有對于離岸市場發(fā)展的研究成果來看,一般認(rèn)為地理位置、經(jīng)濟(jì)水平、法律體系、政治穩(wěn)定、政府政策支持等因素影響離岸市場的發(fā)展。現(xiàn)有研究同時認(rèn)為香港具備發(fā)展人民幣離岸市場的條件,并且其發(fā)展對于內(nèi)地的影響包括增加熱錢進(jìn)入內(nèi)地渠道、影響內(nèi)地利率和匯率、影響內(nèi)地貨幣供應(yīng)量、影響香港金融市場穩(wěn)定等方面,但是整體來看風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是可控的。本文在這些研究的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展的背景及優(yōu)勢,認(rèn)為香港具有完善的金融制度和監(jiān)管,金融市場發(fā)達(dá),并已經(jīng)有美元等離岸市場的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。進(jìn)一步分析了我國中央政府對于人民幣國際化的政策發(fā)展過程,在謹(jǐn)慎推進(jìn)的同時對于香港有較多的傾斜支持。但是我國中央政府內(nèi)部各部門之間對于人民幣國際化的政策取向不同,也擴(kuò)大了套利問題的爭議,影響了人民幣國際化和香港人民幣離岸市場的未來發(fā)展方向和速度。 香港人民幣離岸市場已經(jīng)初步建立了完整的離岸市場體系,具備了一定的市場深度,本文從清算體系、投資市場、外匯市場三個方面進(jìn)行了深入分析。首先,在支付結(jié)算體系方面,已經(jīng)基本建成覆蓋全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的人民幣清算網(wǎng)絡(luò),能夠?yàn)槿蛉嗣駧烹x岸之間、離岸和在岸之間提供支付結(jié)算服務(wù)。其次,投資市場已經(jīng)具備一定的規(guī)模,發(fā)債主體多元化。第三,建立了兩個外匯市場：一是CNY匯率市場,由具備跨境貿(mào)易背景的企業(yè)參與；第二個是完全自由的CNH匯率市場,由香港和全球的市場參與者自由競價(jià),形成香港市場化的人民幣匯率,并且沒有任何交易背景限制。兩個市場發(fā)展已經(jīng)具備一定規(guī)模,可以向全球人民幣投資者提供即期、遠(yuǎn)期、NDF、IRS等全面的人民幣外匯及衍生品,在內(nèi)地人民幣不可自由兌換的情況下,為境外人民幣市場參與者提供了支持。 香港人民幣離岸市場發(fā)展當(dāng)前遇到的最大問題是離岸市場和在岸市場之間的跨境套利,并引起社會輿論和我國中央政府內(nèi)部的爭議,影響了離岸市場的發(fā)展進(jìn)程。本文分析了人民幣跨境套利的三種模式及其影響,其正面影響一是迅速推動人民幣跨境貿(mào)易結(jié)算的發(fā)展；二是顯著增加了香港市場貿(mào)易融資的規(guī)模,加速了香港離岸人民幣市場的發(fā)展。其負(fù)面影響一是熱錢借道跨境貿(mào)易人民幣結(jié)算流入內(nèi)地,影響內(nèi)地貨幣供應(yīng)量和宏觀調(diào)控效果；二是離岸市場影響在岸市場人民幣匯率。從實(shí)際結(jié)果來看,首先,香港人民幣離岸市場的規(guī)模仍很有限,熱錢對內(nèi)地貨幣供應(yīng)量和宏觀調(diào)控的影響非常��；其次,通過對香港人民幣離岸市場NDF匯率、內(nèi)地遠(yuǎn)期市場匯率和人民幣即期匯率三組時間序列的分析,證明人民幣在岸即期匯率與離岸NDF各期限品種的匯率存在明顯的協(xié)整關(guān)系,并且在岸市場匯率更具信息優(yōu)勢,對離岸市場存在影響,因此現(xiàn)階段套利行為對在岸市場匯率的影響很小。綜合來看,套利行為的負(fù)面影響有限,而對于推進(jìn)香港人民幣離岸市場建設(shè)和人民幣國際化有較大幫助。 綜合以上分析,提出相關(guān)政策建議：首先,我國政府可以發(fā)揮套利行為的積極作用加速人民幣國際化和香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展；其次,在香港人民幣債券、股票、基金等投資市場的發(fā)展過程中,來自于內(nèi)地的市場參與者起到重要作用,而香港作為自由經(jīng)濟(jì)體采取投資者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)自負(fù)的市場原則,建議我國中央政府可以進(jìn)一步放松對于內(nèi)地企業(yè)到香港進(jìn)行人民幣IPO、發(fā)行人民幣債券的各類政策限制,支持香港投資市場規(guī)�？焖贁U(kuò)大；第三,在香港人民幣離岸市場的發(fā)展過程充分發(fā)揮了市場力量的作用,我國中央政府可以借鑒香港人民幣離岸市場的市場機(jī)制,推進(jìn)內(nèi)地債券市場的市場化、遠(yuǎn)期外匯市場建設(shè),并實(shí)現(xiàn)在岸市場和離岸市場的良性循環(huán)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market, the market is at the early stage of spontaneous initiation, RMB business on the Hongkong Special Administrative Region of China's central government policy support is mainly to support the individual residents of the cross-border flow of consumer needs, such as mainland residents in the Hongkong area to use RMB shopping. However, since the 2008 financial crisis, there is more criticism the dollar based international monetary system, our government has established "to promote the internationalization of RMB, accelerate the strategic goal of regional monetary cooperation in East Asia and promote the implementation of the reform of the international monetary system, while the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is an important content and support the internationalization of the RMB, the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong has achieved rapid development, has now become overseas the largest offshore RMB center, initially established a relatively complete system and for the offshore market, offshore RMB business The payment and settlement, an important investment support. But in the process, also produced a cross-border arbitrage effect China mainland monetary policy, and further affect the central government of China for RMB internationalization policy decisions. Hongkong offshore RMB market belongs to the policy driven offshore market, its development has a direct impact on China's central government policy therefore, these problems and disputes must affect the future development of the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong. The Hongkong offshore RMB market structure, development background, development process, present achievements, main problems and influence the current of a more comprehensive exposition and analysis, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.
Has certain advantages in the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market. From the existing research results for the development of the offshore market, generally considered the geographical position, economic level, legal system, political stability, government policy support and other factors affecting the development of the offshore market. At the same time, the existing research argues that Hongkong has the development of offshore RMB market conditions, and for its development the effects include increased hot money into the mainland mainland channels, interest rate and exchange rate, money supply affect the mainland, affecting the stability of Hongkong financial market, but the overall risk is controllable. In this paper, on the basis of the research, analyzes the background and advantages of Hongkong offshore RMB market development, that Hongkong has the financial system and to improve the supervision of the financial market has developed, and US dollar offshore market experience. Further analysis of the Chinese Central Government Office of policy development process for the internationalization of the RMB, the cautious while pushing for Hongkong is more inclined to support. But between the internal departments of the central government of China for RMB internationalization policy orientation is different, also expanded the arbitrage controversy over the impact of the internationalization of RMB and Hongkong offshore RMB market in the future development direction and speed.
Hongkong offshore RMB market has established a complete offshore market system, with the market depth, the investment from the clearing system, the market, the three aspects of the foreign exchange market is analyzed. Firstly, in terms of payment and settlement system has been basically completed RMB clearing network covering the world's major economies, to global RMB offshore, offshore and onshore to provide payment and settlement services. Secondly, the investment market already has a certain scale, diversification of bonds. Third, set up two foreign exchange market: one is the CNY exchange market, with participation by the cross-border trade background of the enterprise; the second is completely free of CNH exchange market by free competition Hongkong and the global market participants, the formation of the RMB exchange rate in Hongkong market, and no trading background restrictions. Two market development has A certain scale can provide global RMB investors with immediate, long-term, NDF, IRS and other comprehensive RMB foreign exchange and derivatives, and provide support for overseas RMB market participants in the case of the mainland RMB can not be freely convertible.
The biggest problem in Hongkong the development of offshore RMB market is currently experiencing offshore and onshore market between the cross-border arbitrage, and caused controversy and public opinion within the central government of China, influenced the development process of the offshore market. This paper analyzes the three modes of cross-border RMB arbitrage and its effects, its positive effect is to promote the development of a rapid RMB cross-border trade settlement; two is a significant increase in the Hongkong market trade financing scale, accelerate the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market. Its negative influence is a hot money via the cross-border RMB trade settlement into the mainland, the mainland influence the money supply and the effect of macro-control; two is the impact of RMB offshore market in the offshore market from the actual exchange rate. The results, first of all, the offshore renminbi market in Hongkong is still very limited, hot money to the mainland money supply and macroeconomic regulation. Sound is very small; secondly, based on the Hongkong NDF exchange rate of RMB offshore market, the mainland market analysis long-term RMB exchange rate and the spot rate of three time series, prove that the yuan cointegration exists obviously in the onshore spot rate and offshore NDF varieties of the period of the exchange rate, and the exchange rate in the offshore market has more information advantage, have influence on the offshore market, it has very little influence on the exchange rate at this stage of arbitrage in the offshore market. Overall, the negative impact of arbitrage is limited, which is of great help to promote the construction of Hongkong offshore RMB market and the internationalization of the RMB.
Based on the above analysis, puts forward relevant policy suggestions: first, the Chinese government can play a positive role in accelerating arbitrage RMB internationalization and the development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market; secondly, shares in Hongkong, the development process of RMB bonds, funds and other investment markets, from the mainland market participants play an important role, but as Hongkong free market economies to take the principle of the investor's own risk, suggested that our central government can further relax for mainland enterprises in Hongkong to RMB IPO, the policy limit the issuance of RMB bonds, to support the rapid expansion of the scale of the investment market in Hongkong; third, in the process of development of Hongkong's offshore RMB market and give full play to the role of market forces, I the central government can learn from the market mechanism of Hongkong offshore RMB market, promote the mainland bond market The development of the forward foreign exchange market and a benign circular development in the shore and offshore markets.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 徐劍剛;李治國;張曉蓉;;人民幣NDF與即期匯率的動態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)性研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2007年09期

2 吳成頌;;香港發(fā)行人民幣債券的效應(yīng)與對策分析[J];科技和產(chǎn)業(yè);2008年02期

3 朱孟楠;姜占英;;試析區(qū)域范圍內(nèi)的人民幣化[J];廣東行政學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2006年05期

4 巴曙松;香港:人民幣離岸金融中心[J];改革與理論;2002年07期

5 張誼浩;裴平;沈曉華;;香港離岸金融發(fā)展對大陸金融深化的效應(yīng)——基于離岸金融中心的實(shí)證研究[J];國際金融研究;2009年06期

6 王曦;鄭雪峰;;境內(nèi)外人民幣遠(yuǎn)期匯率信息傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系的演變:一個實(shí)證分析[J];國際金融研究;2009年11期

7 王信;;發(fā)展香港人民幣離岸市場,促進(jìn)上海金融中心建設(shè)[J];國際貿(mào)易;2010年06期

8 李揚(yáng),尹中立;深圳與香港之間地下金融(匯兌)市場分析[J];國際經(jīng)濟(jì)評論;2004年03期

9 何帆;張斌;張明;徐奇淵;鄭聯(lián)盛;;香港離岸人民幣金融市場的現(xiàn)狀、前景、問題與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[J];國際經(jīng)濟(jì)評論;2011年03期

10 徐洪水;人民幣國際化的理論分析及戰(zhàn)略思考——基于人民幣周邊流通的分析[J];國際經(jīng)貿(mào)探索;2004年05期

，

本文編號：1359483