本文關(guān)鍵詞： 物流產(chǎn)業(yè) 能源消費(fèi) 格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn) 脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù) 方差分解　出處：《預(yù)測》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：基于我國1995~2014年相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),采用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法檢驗(yàn)物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與物流能源消費(fèi)間的關(guān)系。研究表明:我國物流產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與能源消費(fèi)間存在著長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系,客貨周轉(zhuǎn)量和全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)能源消費(fèi)有負(fù)向影響,物流產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值與能源消費(fèi)同向變動(dòng)。能源消費(fèi)和產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值是客貨周轉(zhuǎn)量的格蘭杰原因、客貨周轉(zhuǎn)量是全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資的格蘭杰原因。客貨周轉(zhuǎn)量、產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值和全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)物流能源消費(fèi)均有正向沖擊。能源消費(fèi)對(duì)客貨周轉(zhuǎn)量、產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值和全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資的貢獻(xiàn)率均持續(xù)上升。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data from 1995 to 2014 in China, the relationship between the development of logistics industry and the consumption of logistics energy is tested by econometrics method. The results show that there is a long and stable equilibrium relationship between the development of logistics industry and energy consumption in China. The turnover of passenger and goods and the investment in fixed assets of the whole society have a negative effect on energy consumption, and the added value of logistics industry changes in the same direction as energy consumption. Energy consumption and industry added value are the Granger reasons for the turnover of passenger and goods. Passenger and cargo turnover is the Granger cause of fixed asset investment in the whole society. The volume of passenger and cargo turnover, the added value of industry and the investment of fixed assets of the whole society have a positive impact on the consumption of logistics energy. The contribution rate of industry added value and the whole society fixed assets investment is rising continuously.
【作者單位】： 天津大學(xué)管理與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)部;天津理工大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(15BGL013)
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F259.2;F426.2
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本文編號(hào)：1500347