本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的我國鈷資源需求預(yù)測分析　出處：《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 鈷資源 消耗預(yù)測 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)

【摘要】：鈷資源是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的一種重要的戰(zhàn)略礦產(chǎn)資源,它被應(yīng)用在包括電池制造、電子產(chǎn)品制造以及硬質(zhì)合金制造在內(nèi)的多項(xiàng)領(lǐng)域。隨著我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)不斷發(fā)展,我國鈷資源消費(fèi)水平也隨之日益提高,同時因?yàn)榄h(huán)保意識以及移動設(shè)備逐漸普及,近年來鈷的消耗量進(jìn)入了快速增長期。自2007年以來,我國一直保持著鈷資源最大消費(fèi)國的地位,并且在可預(yù)見的未來我國鈷資源的消耗量將會一直保持在高位運(yùn)行。但是同時,我國鈷資源的儲量僅占世界總儲量的1%左右。目前來看,我國鈷資源的供應(yīng)存在著較大的潛在風(fēng)險,這不僅影響著我國鈷資源相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的正常運(yùn)行,同時有可能威脅到我國整體國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。在這一背景下,對鈷資源未來的消耗量和可供應(yīng)量進(jìn)行預(yù)測,同時明確鈷資源應(yīng)用的范圍與數(shù)量,能夠?qū)ξ覈磥礅捹Y源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃起到指導(dǎo)作用,對我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著重要意義。本文首先對鈷資源的相關(guān)資料進(jìn)行了收集與分析,研究并指出了全球范圍內(nèi)與中國的鈷資源以及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷史及現(xiàn)狀,并對其儲量、產(chǎn)量、消費(fèi)量、貿(mào)易量、價格變動進(jìn)行了分別描述分析。在此基礎(chǔ)之上,我們以礦產(chǎn)資源需求理論以及經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)供需理論為指導(dǎo),通過系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的理論方法,對我國鈷資源的消耗與供給進(jìn)行了分析,尋找了與其相關(guān)的主要因素,并以此為框架建立了鈷資源消耗量系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。模型當(dāng)中含有鈷的生產(chǎn)、消耗、進(jìn)口以及供需四個子系統(tǒng)。我們以2006-2015年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)對系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行了模擬仿真檢驗(yàn),并運(yùn)用通過檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ蛯︹捹Y源2016-2026年消耗量以及供應(yīng)量在不同的假設(shè)情景下進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。通過模型靈敏度檢驗(yàn)與不同情景下鈷資源消耗量預(yù)測我們可以得知,對我國鈷資源消耗量影響較大的有GDP增長率、人口自然增長率以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的比率,其中影響最大的為GDP增長率且其與GDP增長率的大小呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系同時,通過基準(zhǔn)情景下的預(yù)測我們可以得知,鈷資源消耗量與可供應(yīng)量量在未來會保持較為良好的增長趨勢,但消耗量的增幅會超過可供應(yīng)量的增幅,導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)鈷資源逐漸出現(xiàn)供需缺口并逐漸變大。另外,基準(zhǔn)情景下,我國鈷的主要消耗部門為電池領(lǐng)域,而主要供應(yīng)部門為進(jìn)口。文章在最后基于以上狀況,提出了相應(yīng)的結(jié)論與政策建議。
[Abstract]:Cobalt resource is an important strategic mineral resource in economic and social development. It has been used in many fields, including battery manufacturing, electronic products manufacturing and cemented carbide manufacturing. The consumption level of cobalt resource in our country is also increasing day by day, at the same time, because of the environmental protection consciousness and the gradual popularization of mobile equipment, the consumption of cobalt has entered a period of rapid growth in recent years. Since 2007. China has always maintained its position as the largest consumer of cobalt resources, and the consumption of cobalt resources will remain at a high level in the foreseeable future. But at the same time. The reserves of cobalt resources in China only account for about 1% of the total reserves in the world. At present, the supply of cobalt resources in China has great potential risks, which not only affects the normal operation of the related industries of cobalt resources in China. At the same time, it may threaten the healthy development of the whole national economy in China. Under this background, the future consumption and available supply of cobalt resources are predicted, and the scope and quantity of the application of cobalt resources are defined. Can play a guiding role in the future cobalt resources industry development planning, the sustainable development of China's national economy is of great significance. Firstly, this paper collected and analyzed the related data of cobalt resources. This paper studies and points out the development history and present situation of cobalt resources and related industries in the world with China, and analyzes its reserves, production, consumption and trade volume. On the basis of this, we use the theory of mineral resource demand and the theory of economic supply and demand as the guidance, through the theoretical method of system dynamics. This paper analyzes the consumption and supply of cobalt resources in China, finds out the main factors related to it, and establishes a system dynamic model of cobalt resource consumption based on this framework. The model includes the production and consumption of cobalt. Four subsystems of import and supply and demand. Based on the relevant data from 2006 to 2015, we simulated and tested the system dynamics model. The consumption and supply of cobalt resources in 2016-2026 are predicted under different scenarios by using the test model. The sensitivity test of the model and the consumption of cobalt resources in different scenarios are used to predict the consumption of cobalt resources. You will know. The GDP growth rate, the natural population growth rate and the ratio of industrial structure have great influence on the consumption of cobalt resources in China. Among them, the GDP growth rate is the most important and it has a positive correlation with the GDP growth rate. At the same time, we can know through the forecast under the benchmark scenario. The consumption of cobalt resources and the amount of available supply will keep a good growth trend in the future, but the increase of consumption will exceed the increase of available supply, which leads to the domestic cobalt resources gradually appear supply and demand gap and gradually become larger. In the base scenario, the main consuming department of cobalt in China is battery field, while the main supply department is import. Based on the above situation, the paper puts forward the corresponding conclusions and policy suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：N941.3;F426.1
，

本文編號：1429319