本文選題：案例推理 + 群體性事件��； 參考：《情報(bào)雜志》2017年04期

【摘要】：[目的/意義]我國(guó)進(jìn)入全面深化改革的攻堅(jiān)階段,國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)形勢(shì)空前復(fù)雜。隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,群體性事件又出現(xiàn)了諸多值得關(guān)注的新特點(diǎn),要求決策者做到面對(duì)事件,實(shí)時(shí)解算、隨機(jī)應(yīng)變、因地制宜,當(dāng)前群體性事件計(jì)算機(jī)輔助決策的應(yīng)用非常有限,基于WEB服務(wù)的決策系統(tǒng)亟待研究和開發(fā)。[方法/過程]針對(duì)群體性事件涉及到的非結(jié)構(gòu)化數(shù)據(jù),采用基于案例推理的智能決策支持方法,提取群體性事件的特征要素,整理建立案例數(shù)據(jù)庫,用層次分析法和貝葉斯理論確定特征要素權(quán)重,用K-最近鄰法進(jìn)行相似度計(jì)算,綜合利用信息技術(shù)與智能決策技術(shù),對(duì)事件信息進(jìn)行有效處理,預(yù)測(cè)其發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)及未來可能的發(fā)展情景,并實(shí)時(shí)形成可操作性的應(yīng)急決策方案,預(yù)防和控制群體性事件進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,實(shí)現(xiàn)有效應(yīng)急決策管理。[結(jié)果/結(jié)論]設(shè)計(jì)基于.net平臺(tái)的SQL Server+WCF+Silverlight的Web服務(wù)系統(tǒng),包含案例管理、案例推理、用戶管理、交流學(xué)習(xí)和系統(tǒng)幫助5個(gè)模塊,以求成為政府管理者,決策處置群體性事件,整理總結(jié)相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)原則和學(xué)習(xí)的助手。
[Abstract]:Objective / significance: China has entered the critical stage of deepening reform in an all-round way, and the international and domestic situation is unprecedented and complex. With the development of Internet technology, group events have many new characteristics that deserve attention. They require decision-makers to face events, solve them in real time, adapt to the situation and adapt to local conditions. At present, the application of group event computer aided decision is very limited, and the decision system based on Web service needs to be researched and developed urgently. [method / process] in view of the unstructured data involved in group events, an intelligent decision support method based on case-based reasoning is used to extract the characteristic elements of group events and to organize and establish case database. The weights of feature elements are determined by analytic hierarchy process and Bayesian theory, and the similarity degree is calculated by using K-nearest neighbor method, and the event information is effectively processed by using information technology and intelligent decision technology. It predicts its development situation and possible development scenarios in the future and forms an operational emergency decision plan in real time to prevent and control the further development of group events and to realize effective emergency decision management. [results / conclusion] A Web service system of SQL Server WCF Silverlight based on .net platform is designed, which includes five modules: case management, case-based reasoning, user management, communication learning and system help, in order to become a government administrator and make decisions to deal with mass events. Collate and summarize relevant experience principles and learning assistants.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民武裝警察部隊(duì)學(xué)院;天津交通職業(yè)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目“公共安全視角下網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模與對(duì)策研究”(編號(hào):15CXW015) 公安部理論與軟科學(xué)項(xiàng)目“基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情綜合研判的群體性事件預(yù)警研究”(編號(hào):2015LLYJWJXY034) 河北統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究計(jì)劃重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“大數(shù)據(jù)環(huán)境下網(wǎng)絡(luò)輿情數(shù)據(jù)分析與決策研究”(編號(hào):2016HZ09) 武警學(xué)院博士科研創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃課題“面向突發(fā)事件的微博輿情數(shù)據(jù)監(jiān)測(cè)與分析模型研究”(編號(hào):BSCX201608)
【分類號(hào)】：D631.43

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