本文選題：假說 + 偵查假設(shè)��； 參考：《西南政法大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：偵查假設(shè)貫穿于整個(gè)偵查破案的全過程，為偵查活動(dòng)指明了方向，并促進(jìn)偵查工作的不斷發(fā)展和深入。因此，偵查假設(shè)的建立過程也是偵查人員對(duì)案件不斷深化認(rèn)識(shí)的過程。面對(duì)一些高科技高智商犯罪的復(fù)雜情形，要保證破案的質(zhì)量和效率，在建立偵查假設(shè)的過程中就有必要借助于決策理論以改善偵查假設(shè)的認(rèn)識(shí)過程。因此，本文將試從決策理論的角度去審視偵查假設(shè)。 本文結(jié)合相關(guān)決策理論，通過分析決策理論的思維方式和決策方法，并從決策理論的視野中探討了偵查假設(shè)所面臨的實(shí)際情形，進(jìn)而把決策理論的相關(guān)決策模型應(yīng)用在偵查假設(shè)的建立過程中，從而指導(dǎo)偵查人員深化對(duì)案件的認(rèn)識(shí)。本文分為三個(gè)部分： 第一部分：偵查假設(shè)之模式分析 首先運(yùn)用了比較分析的方法詳細(xì)地闡述了假說的定義和偵查假設(shè)的涵義以及二者的區(qū)別，指出偵查假設(shè)對(duì)偵查工作的指導(dǎo)作用；其次討論了偵查假設(shè)的提出，通過對(duì)偵查假設(shè)提出的路徑進(jìn)行分析后，指出非邏輯方法對(duì)偵查假設(shè)的提出具有重要的意義；再次討論了偵查假設(shè)的驗(yàn)證，指出偵查假設(shè)的建立是提出假設(shè)和驗(yàn)證假設(shè)的往復(fù)循環(huán)過程；最后，探討了決策和認(rèn)識(shí)的關(guān)系，指出偵查假設(shè)與決策理論具有邏輯相關(guān)性。 第二部分：決策理論 首先從決策的基本要素開始討論，，然后分析了歸納邏輯中所討論的決策類型；其次討論了古典決策理論中最有影響力的貝葉斯決策理論，通過對(duì)貝葉斯決策模式的分析，引出了貝葉斯決策的兩大核心概念：效用和主觀概率，并指出了貝葉斯決策假定的缺陷；最后討論了現(xiàn)代決策理論，從“理性”出發(fā)，逐步分析了有限理性理論、前景理論和自然決策理論的決策模式，并以“理性”為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，分析了現(xiàn)代決策理論對(duì)貝葉斯決策理論的修正，然后指出現(xiàn)代決策理論是在修正后的貝葉斯決策理論的理論背景下發(fā)展起來的。 第三部分：決策理論在偵查假設(shè)中的應(yīng)用 這部分是本文的核心所在，筆者一開始從決策理論的視野去審視偵查假設(shè)，指出偵查假設(shè)的建立是一種專業(yè)化、信息不充分、時(shí)間緊迫、環(huán)境不確定的決策。并討論了偵查人員作為決策者應(yīng)當(dāng)充分運(yùn)用決策理論的相關(guān)思維方式和模型去高效、合理、正確的建立偵查假設(shè)。 接著探討了貝葉斯決策理論在偵查假設(shè)中的應(yīng)用，用案例分析的方法分析了最大期望效用原則在偵查假設(shè)中的具體應(yīng)用，并討論了貝葉斯決策理論對(duì)偵查假設(shè)的借鑒意義。 最后重點(diǎn)探討了現(xiàn)代決策理論中的自然決策理論在偵查假設(shè)中的應(yīng)用，由于自然決策理論主要是研究時(shí)間緊迫、情形不確定的真實(shí)決策過程，所以它非常符合偵查假設(shè)所面臨的實(shí)際決策情形。因此，筆者把自然決策理論在偵查假設(shè)中的應(yīng)用作為本部分的重中之重進(jìn)行探討，同樣運(yùn)用了案例分析的方法分析了自然決策理論中最重要的RPD模型在偵查假設(shè)中的應(yīng)用，并進(jìn)一步討論了現(xiàn)代決策理論在實(shí)踐中對(duì)偵查假設(shè)的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The investigation hypothesis runs through the whole process of the whole investigation, points out the direction for the investigation activities and promotes the continuous development and deepening of the investigation work. Therefore, the establishment process of the investigation hypothesis is also the process of the investigators' deepening the understanding of the cases. Efficiency, in the process of establishing investigation hypothesis, it is necessary to use decision theory to improve the cognitive process of investigation hypothesis. Therefore, this paper will try to examine the hypothesis of investigation from the perspective of decision theory.
This paper analyzes the thinking mode and decision-making method of decision theory, and probes into the actual situation of the investigation hypothesis in the view of decision theory, and then applies the decision model of decision theory to the establishment process of the investigation hypothesis, and guides the investigators to deepen the understanding of the case. It is divided into three parts:
The first part: an analysis of the mode of investigation hypothesis
Firstly, it expounds the definition of the hypothesis and the meaning of the hypothesis of investigation and the difference between the two, and points out the guiding role of the investigation hypothesis to the investigation work. Secondly, it discusses the hypothesis of the investigation, and points out that the non logical method has put forward the hypothesis of the investigation after the analysis of the path of the investigation hypothesis. It is of great significance; again, it discusses the verification of the hypothesis of investigation, and points out that the establishment of the investigation hypothesis is the reciprocal cycle of the hypothesis and the hypothesis, and finally, the relationship between decision and cognition is discussed, and the logical relevance of the investigation hypothesis and the decision theory is pointed out.
The second part: the decision theory
First of all, it starts from the basic elements of decision making, then analyzes the type of decision discussed in the inductive logic. Secondly, it discusses the most influential Bias decision theory in the classical decision-making theory. Through the analysis of the Bias decision-making model, it leads to the two core concepts of Bias's decision making: utility and subjective probability, and points out that In the end, Bias's decision theory is discussed. Finally, the modern decision theory is discussed. Starting from "rationality", the theory of finite rationality, the prospect theory and the decision-making model of natural decision theory are gradually analyzed. And based on the "reason", the amendment of the modern decision theory to Bias's decision theory is analyzed, and then the modern decision theory is pointed out. Under the background of the modified Bayesian decision theory, the theory has been developed.
The third part: the application of decision theory in investigation hypothesis.
This part is the core of this article. I begin to examine the hypothesis of investigation from the perspective of decision-making theory, and point out that the establishment of investigation hypothesis is a kind of decision making with specialization, insufficient information, urgent time and uncertain environment. High efficiency, reasonable and correct establishment of investigation hypothesis.
Then the application of Bayesian decision theory in the investigation hypothesis is discussed, and the application of the maximum expected utility principle in the investigation hypothesis is analyzed with the method of case analysis, and the significance of the Bayesian decision theory to the investigation hypothesis is discussed.
Finally, the application of the natural decision theory in the modern decision-making theory in the investigation hypothesis is discussed. Because the natural decision theory is mainly a real decision making process that studies the time pressing and the uncertainty of the situation, it is very consistent with the actual decision situation of the investigation hypothesis. As the most important part of this part, the application of the case analysis is also used to analyze the application of the most important RPD model in the natural decision theory in the investigation hypothesis, and further discuss the significance of the modern decision theory to the investigation hypothesis in practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：D90-051

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