本文選題：肺癌 + 死亡率�。� 參考：《中國公共衛(wèi)生》2017年01期

【摘要】：目的分析中國居民1987—2014年肺癌死亡的時間變化趨勢。方法匯總中國居民1987—2014年肺癌死亡率數(shù)據(jù),利用Joinpoint模型估算各年齡組人群肺癌死亡率的時間變化趨勢,負(fù)二項回歸模型探索肺癌死亡在人群水平上的危險因素。結(jié)果肺癌死亡的風(fēng)險比值,城市居民是農(nóng)村居民的1.43倍(95%CI=1.35~1.50,P0.01),男性是女性的2.28倍(95%CI=2.17~2.41,P0.01),每增加5歲,肺癌死亡風(fēng)險平均增大62%(OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60~1.63,P0.01),每過一年平均增大1%(OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00~1.01,P0.01);農(nóng)村居民肺癌中標(biāo)死亡率上升明顯[男性死亡率年度變化百分比(APC)=2.58%,女性APC=2.54%:P0.01],城市女性略有下降(APC=-0.74%,P0.01),城市男性無明顯趨勢(APC=-0.23%,P=0.11);城市居民在20~74歲肺癌死亡率逐年下降,≥75歲逐年上升;農(nóng)村低齡組居民無明顯下降趨勢,農(nóng)村男性≥40歲、農(nóng)村女性≥50歲呈明顯上升趨勢。結(jié)論中國肺癌死亡率的變化趨勢有年齡差異;農(nóng)村地區(qū)肺癌死亡率逐年增加。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the temporal change trend of lung cancer death in Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014. Methods the lung cancer mortality data of Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014 were collected, and the temporal trends of lung cancer mortality in different age groups were estimated by Joinpoint model. The negative binomial regression model was used to explore the risk factors of lung cancer mortality at population level. Results the risk ratio of lung cancer death in urban residents was 1.43 times as high as that in rural residents (95CII 1.35 1.50% P0.01), and in men 2.28 times that in women (95CII 2.172.41% P0.01). Every increase of 5 years old, the risk of lung cancer death in urban residents was 1.43 times higher than that in rural residents. The risk of lung cancer death increased by 62% on average (OR1.62C95CII 1.60 / 1.63P0.01) and by 1% every year (OR1.0195 CIQ 1.001.01 P0.01); the mortality rate of lung cancer in rural residents increased significantly [APC 2.5858%, APC-2.54% P0.01], urban women decreased slightly (APC-0.74P0.01), urban males showed no obvious trend. (APC-0.23); the mortality rate of lung cancer among urban residents at 20 to 74 years old decreased year by year. The age of 鈮，

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