【摘要】：目前,改水降氟是飲水型氟中毒病區(qū)的基本防治策略。它通常包括打深井、引水、理化除氟等多種形式。在改水降氟工程竣工以后進(jìn)行的運(yùn)行現(xiàn)狀和效果評(píng)估調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),有一定數(shù)量的工程水氟超標(biāo)或者已經(jīng)報(bào)廢。這種情況直接導(dǎo)致的后果為病區(qū)居民繼續(xù)飲用高氟水,面臨氟中毒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,分析非正常運(yùn)行改水降氟工程成因及其經(jīng)濟(jì)影響具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 目的 分析改水降氟工程水氟超標(biāo)或報(bào)廢的原因；收集改水降氟工程建設(shè)成本和經(jīng)常性成本信息,對(duì)改水降氟工程進(jìn)行相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析。 方法 按照分層隨機(jī)抽樣的方法,在已查明防病改水地區(qū)范圍內(nèi)抽取一定數(shù)量的水氟超標(biāo)工程和報(bào)廢工程。通過(guò)查閱歷史資料、現(xiàn)場(chǎng)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查等方式獲取所需信息。分析造成改水降氟工程非正常運(yùn)行的原因,對(duì)改水降氟工程的成本和使用情況作描述性研究,并進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)評(píng)價(jià)。 結(jié)果 4.1在39處改水降氟工程中,水氟超標(biāo)主要原因?yàn)榫谄屏押统O(shè)備老化,分別占到51.28%和41.03%；其次為無(wú)人管理和缺乏除氟藥劑,各占5.13%和2.56%。 4.28處改水降氟工程的主要報(bào)廢原因?yàn)槌^(guò)使用年限和管壁破裂,各占50.00%和25.00%；其次為水質(zhì)太差和水量不足,分別占12.50%和12.50%。 4.318處水氟超標(biāo)工程既往正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)狀態(tài)下提供低氟水的平均年限為16.86±7.94年,8處已報(bào)廢工程的平均使用壽命為15.76±5.01年,均超過(guò)工程設(shè)計(jì)使用年限15年。 4.4本次調(diào)查選取的18處水氟超標(biāo)工程的建設(shè)成本均值為21.11±6.50萬(wàn)元,經(jīng)常性成本均值為1.74±1.45萬(wàn)元/年：8處報(bào)廢工程的建設(shè)成本均值為14.19±3.69萬(wàn)元,經(jīng)常性成本均值為0.98±0.45萬(wàn)元/年。 4.5改水降氟工程水氟超標(biāo)后,所在自然村多數(shù)選取再次改水,極少數(shù)采取在原工程基礎(chǔ)上更換設(shè)備的方式。經(jīng)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)分析,再次改水和更換設(shè)備在建設(shè)成本、經(jīng)常性成本、年均總成本和人均年成本上均無(wú)顯著性差異。 4.6改水降氟工程報(bào)廢后,多數(shù)自然村選擇建造單村工程,少數(shù)建造聯(lián)合工程。單村工程時(shí)在建設(shè)成本、經(jīng)常性成本和年均總成本上均小于村聯(lián)合工程,但在人均年成本上二者無(wú)顯著統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)差異。 4.78處報(bào)廢改水降氟工程的實(shí)際服務(wù)效益年為1806.63萬(wàn)元·年,預(yù)期服務(wù)效益年為1702.50萬(wàn)元·年,實(shí)際值為預(yù)期值的106.12%。 結(jié)論 5.1改水降氟工程的水氟超標(biāo)問(wèn)題主要出現(xiàn)在除氟設(shè)備老化和井壁破裂這兩個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)上,少數(shù)由管理不當(dāng)和資金缺乏所致。 5.2使用年限過(guò)長(zhǎng)和因各種原因?qū)е碌墓鼙谄屏咽歉乃捣こ虉?bào)廢的主要原因。 5.3在發(fā)現(xiàn)改水降氟工程水氟超標(biāo)以后,無(wú)論選擇再次改水或原工程基礎(chǔ)上更換設(shè)備,其成本投入沒有差別。 5.4建造單村工程和村聯(lián)合工程的人均年成本投入沒有差異。 5.5改水降氟對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到積極的促進(jìn)作用。
[Abstract]:At present, improving water and reducing fluoride is the basic control strategy of drinking water fluorosis area. It usually includes drilling deep wells, water diversion, physical and chemical defluorination and other forms. After the completion of the fluorine reduction project, it is found that a certain number of project water fluorine exceeds the standard or has been abandoned. The direct consequence of this situation is that residents continue to drink high-fluorine water and face the risk of fluorosis. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze the causes and the economic impact of the abnormal operation of water reform and fluorine reduction project. Objective to analyze the reasons of water fluorine exceeding the standard or waste, to collect the information of construction cost and recurrent cost of water fluorine reduction project, and to analyze the relevant economics of water fluorine reduction project. Methods according to the method of stratified random sampling, a certain number of water fluorine exceeding standard engineering and scrapping project were extracted in the area of disease prevention and water improvement. Access to historical materials, field surveys and other ways to obtain the required information. This paper analyzes on the causes of abnormal operation of water modification and fluorine reduction project, studies the cost and usage of the water improvement and fluoride reduction project, and carries out an economic evaluation. Results in 39 water defluorination projects, the main causes of water fluorine excess were well wall rupture and defluorination equipment aging, accounting for 51.28% and 41.03% respectively. The second was unmanaged and lack of defluorides, accounting for 5.13% and 2.56% respectively. 4.28 the main reasons of waste rejection were over service life and pipe wall rupture, accounting for 50.00% and 25.00% respectively, followed by poor water quality and insufficient water quantity, accounting for 12.50% and 12.50% respectively. The average life of providing low fluorine water in the past normal operation state of 4.318 water fluorine exceeding standard projects is 16.86 鹵7.94 years, and the average service life of 8 abandoned projects is 15.76 鹵5.01, which is more than 15 years of engineering design life. 4.4 the average construction cost and recurrent cost of the 18 water fluorine exceeding standard projects selected in this investigation are 21.11 鹵65000 yuan, 1.74 鹵14500 yuan / year and 14.19 鹵36900 yuan respectively. The average recurrent cost was 0.98 鹵4500 yuan per year. 4.5 after the fluorine reduction project exceeded the standard, most of the villages in the natural village chose to change the water again, and a few of them adopted the method of replacing the equipment on the basis of the original project. The statistical analysis showed that there was no significant difference in construction cost, recurrent cost, annual total cost and per capita annual cost. 4.6 after the project was scrapped, most natural villages chose to build single village projects and a few to build joint projects. The construction cost, recurrent cost and annual total cost of single village project are smaller than those of village joint project, but there is no significant difference in per capita annual cost. 4.78 the actual service benefit year is 18.0663 million yuan years and the expected service benefit year is 17.025 million yuan year. The actual value is 106.12 yuan of the expected value. Conclusion the problem of water fluorine exceeding standard in 5.1 water fluorine reduction project mainly occurs in the two links of defluorination equipment aging and wellbore rupture, and a few are caused by improper management and lack of funds. 5.2 long service life and pipe wall breakage caused by various reasons are the main reasons for the waste of fluorine reduction project. 5.3 after it was found that the fluorine in the water of the water improvement project exceeded the standard, the cost of the equipment was not different whether the water was changed again or the equipment was replaced on the basis of the original project. 5.4 there is no difference in per capita annual cost input between single village project and village joint project. 5.5 improving water and reducing fluorine play a positive role in promoting local economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：R123.9;F323.213

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