【摘要】：目的：了解蘭州市氣象因素變化規(guī)律,探討氣象因素對(duì)居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦系血管疾病日入院人數(shù)的影響,建立暴露反應(yīng)關(guān)系,為疾病預(yù)防控制提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 方法：用SPSS13.0對(duì)氣象因素和疾病資料進(jìn)行Pearson相關(guān)分析,用時(shí)間序列GAM模型,在控制時(shí)間、“星期幾”效應(yīng)、污染物等混在因素的基礎(chǔ)上,分析氣象因素對(duì)居民健康(不同性別、年齡別及疾病別)的影響。 結(jié)果：(1)氣溫(包括日最高氣溫、最低氣溫及平均氣溫)、相對(duì)濕度、露點(diǎn)溫度、能見(jiàn)度、風(fēng)速等氣象因素年際變化呈現(xiàn)倒“V”型；平均氣壓、相對(duì)濕度在春季最低秋季最高其他氣象因素則在冬季最低、夏季最高；日平均氣溫、日最高氣溫、平均氣壓、相對(duì)濕度、風(fēng)速有逐年上升趨勢(shì),日最低氣溫、露點(diǎn)溫度和能見(jiàn)度呈現(xiàn)降低趨勢(shì)。(2)Pearson相關(guān)分析結(jié)果顯示,呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病與氣溫、相對(duì)濕度、露點(diǎn)溫度、能見(jiàn)度等呈顯著相關(guān)(P0.01),與能見(jiàn)度相關(guān)性最強(qiáng),相關(guān)系數(shù)為-0.189；心腦血管疾病與氣溫、相對(duì)濕度、風(fēng)速等呈現(xiàn)顯著相關(guān)(P0.01),與風(fēng)速相關(guān)性最強(qiáng),相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.136。(3)蘭州市氣象因素對(duì)呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦血管疾病的影響多表現(xiàn)為滯后效應(yīng),比較不同因素對(duì)疾病RR值發(fā)現(xiàn),所有人群中,女性、兒童及老年人群相對(duì)其他人群更為敏感(RR較大),日平均氣溫對(duì)女性呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦血管疾病影響最大,RR分別為1.182和1.289,日最低氣溫對(duì)兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病影響最大,RR為1.263,日最高氣溫和日平均氣溫分別對(duì)老年人群呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦血管疾病影響最大,RR分別為1.155和1.135。 結(jié)論：蘭州市氣象因素均表現(xiàn)出明顯的周期性變化,且對(duì)呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦血管疾病的影響多表現(xiàn)為滯后效應(yīng)。根據(jù)GAM模型計(jì)算出的RR值可以對(duì)呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和心腦血管疾病的發(fā)病率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),為疾病的防治提供依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the changes of meteorological factors in Lanzhou City, and to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the number of people admitted to hospital on the day of respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular diseases of heart and brain system, and to establish the relationship of exposure response to provide scientific basis for disease prevention and control. Methods: SPSS13.0 was used to analyze the Pearson correlation between meteorological factors and disease data. The time series GAM model was used to control the time, the "day of the week" effect, the pollutant and so on, on the basis of the factors, such as the control time, the "day of the week" effect, the pollutant, etc. To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on residents' health (sex, age and disease). Results: (1) the interannual variation of temperature (including daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and mean temperature), relative humidity, dew point temperature, visibility, wind speed and other meteorological factors showed an inverted "V" pattern; The mean pressure and relative humidity are the lowest in spring and the highest in autumn. Other meteorological factors are the lowest in winter and the highest in summer. The daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, mean air pressure, relative humidity and wind speed increased year by year, and the daily minimum temperature, dew point temperature and visibility showed a decreasing trend. (2) Pearson correlation analysis showed that respiratory diseases and air temperature, Relative humidity, dew temperature and visibility were significantly correlated (P0.01), and the correlation coefficient was -0.189; Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were significantly correlated with air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed (P0.01), and had the strongest correlation with wind speed. The correlation coefficient is 0.136. (3) the effects of meteorological factors on respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Lanzhou City are mostly lagged effects. Comparing the RR values of different factors on diseases, we found that, in all population, women, Children and elderly people were more sensitive (RR) than other populations. The daily mean temperature had the greatest effect on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in women, RR was 1.182 and 1.289 respectively. The effects of daily minimum temperature on respiratory diseases of children were the greatest, RR was 1.263, and daily maximum temperature and daily mean temperature had the greatest influence on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in the elderly, RR were 1.155 and 1.135 respectively. Conclusion: the meteorological factors in Lanzhou have obvious periodic changes, and the effects on respiratory diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are mostly lag effects. The RR values calculated by GAM model can predict the incidence of respiratory system diseases and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and provide basis for the prevention and treatment of diseases.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：X16;R122.26

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本文編號(hào)：2313208