【摘要】：為探究氣象環(huán)境條件對消化系統(tǒng)疾病的影響,結(jié)合分布滯后非線性模型與廣義相加模型,分析了2009~2011年氣象環(huán)境要素與北京市消化系統(tǒng)疾病急診人數(shù)的暴露-反應(yīng)關(guān)系.結(jié)果顯示,氣溫對消化系統(tǒng)疾病的影響主要體現(xiàn)為"高溫效應(yīng)",高于25℃的氣溫其危險(xiǎn)度RR隨氣溫升高而增加,且滯后效應(yīng)能達(dá)到10d以上.較為極端的濕度(RH10%或RH90%)會顯著增加消化系統(tǒng)疾病的發(fā)病,并有持久的作用,其與高溫結(jié)合會形成"高溫低濕"和"高溫高濕"2種讓人不適的情況.0~2m/s的風(fēng)速在短的滯后期(5d)最能增加發(fā)病危險(xiǎn)性.而3~4m/s的風(fēng)速對疾病的危險(xiǎn)性小,說明適度的風(fēng)速不影響健康.濃度高于200μg/m~3的PM_(10)和濃度高于70μg/m~3的NO_2具有即時(shí)的危險(xiǎn)性(5d內(nèi)顯著);而較高濃度(55μg/m3)的SO_2滯后一定時(shí)期后效應(yīng)更加明顯.
[Abstract]:In order to investigate the influence of meteorological environmental conditions on digestive system diseases, the relationship between exposure and response of meteorological environmental elements and emergency population of digestive system diseases in Beijing from 2009 to 2011 was analyzed by combining the nonlinear model of distribution lag with the generalized additive model. The results showed that the effect of temperature on digestive system diseases was mainly "high temperature effect". The RR of temperature above 25 鈩，

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