【摘要】：目的探討我國(guó)手足口病發(fā)病與氣象因素的關(guān)系,建立基于氣象因素的手足口病發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)模型。方法收集2010-2014年全國(guó)31個(gè)省市手足口病月發(fā)病率資料和當(dāng)?shù)赝跉庀筚Y料;利用Spearman相關(guān)分析、Logistic回歸分析篩選影響手足口病發(fā)病的氣象危險(xiǎn)因素;應(yīng)用哈佛疾病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)模型建立預(yù)測(cè)模型;采用ROC曲線下面積評(píng)價(jià)模型優(yōu)劣。結(jié)果影響手足口病高發(fā)的氣象危險(xiǎn)因素分別為月平均氣溫12~22℃(OR=13.922)、月平均氣溫大于22℃(OR=25.932)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)大氣壓地區(qū)(OR=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(OR=1.439)及月平均濕度大于70%(OR=1.597)。根據(jù)以上氣象因素建立手足口病發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)模型,并繪制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估圖,模型的ROC曲線下面積為0.810。結(jié)論氣象因素對(duì)手足口病的發(fā)生、發(fā)展過程存在影響;成功建立了基于氣象因素的手足口病發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)模型。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors in China and to establish a prediction model of HFMD risk based on meteorological factors. Methods monthly morbidity data of HFMD and local meteorological data were collected from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2014. The meteorological risk factors affecting HFMD were screened by Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis. The prediction model is established by using the Harvard disease risk index model, and the area evaluation model under the ROC curve is used. Results the meteorological risk factors affecting the high incidence of HFMD were monthly mean temperature 1222 鈩，

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