【摘要】：目的探討我國手足口病發(fā)病與氣象因素的關系,建立基于氣象因素的手足口病發(fā)病風險預測模型。方法收集2010-2014年全國31個省市手足口病月發(fā)病率資料和當?shù)赝跉庀筚Y料;利用Spearman相關分析、Logistic回歸分析篩選影響手足口病發(fā)病的氣象危險因素;應用哈佛疾病風險指數(shù)模型建立預測模型;采用ROC曲線下面積評價模型優(yōu)劣。結果影響手足口病高發(fā)的氣象危險因素分別為月平均氣溫12~22℃(OR=13.922)、月平均氣溫大于22℃(OR=25.932)、標準大氣壓地區(qū)(OR=7.953)、月降水量大于100 mm(OR=1.439)及月平均濕度大于70%(OR=1.597)。根據(jù)以上氣象因素建立手足口病發(fā)病風險預測模型,并繪制風險評估圖,模型的ROC曲線下面積為0.810。結論氣象因素對手足口病的發(fā)生、發(fā)展過程存在影響;成功建立了基于氣象因素的手足口病發(fā)病風險預測模型。
[Abstract]:Objective to explore the relationship between HFMD and meteorological factors in China and to establish a prediction model of HFMD risk based on meteorological factors. Methods monthly morbidity data of HFMD and local meteorological data were collected from 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2014. The meteorological risk factors affecting HFMD were screened by Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis. The prediction model is established by using the Harvard disease risk index model, and the area evaluation model under the ROC curve is used. Results the meteorological risk factors affecting the high incidence of HFMD were monthly mean temperature 1222 鈩，

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