【摘要】：通過收集蘭州市2010—2013年每日腦卒中發(fā)病資料,結(jié)合同一時間段的氣象資料,利用分布滯后非線性模型分析氣溫與人群腦卒中發(fā)病的關(guān)聯(lián)性,分析不同氣溫和不同滯后天數(shù)對腦卒中發(fā)病可能的影響。結(jié)果表明腦卒中發(fā)病與氣象因素關(guān)系密切,氣象因素與腦卒中病例數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)分析表明蘭州市腦卒中每日發(fā)病人數(shù)與氣溫、氣壓和相對濕度均存在相關(guān)性,氣溫在不同滯后日與腦卒中的關(guān)聯(lián)呈非線性,不同類型腦卒中與氣溫的關(guān)聯(lián)強度存在差異。對于腦出血患者而言,低溫在當(dāng)天就表現(xiàn)出危害效應(yīng),隨后發(fā)病風(fēng)險不斷增加,滯后2~3 d時達(dá)到最大,可持續(xù)至低溫發(fā)生后的第30天。腦梗塞的發(fā)病過程與腦出血存在一定差異,高溫和低溫均會引起發(fā)病風(fēng)險增大,并且氣溫效應(yīng)在當(dāng)天就能發(fā)生,在滯后3~5 d內(nèi)最強。低溫對女性或者19~64歲者的影響更大,而高溫對≥65歲者的影響更大;低溫對不同類型腦卒中發(fā)病均有影響,高溫僅對缺血性腦卒中發(fā)病有影響。氣溫對不同年齡、性別人群的腦卒中發(fā)病影響存在差異,對不同類型的腦卒中發(fā)病影響也有所不同。氣溫是作為外因通過影響機體功能而致人發(fā)病的。
[Abstract]:Through collecting daily stroke incidence data from 2010 to 2013 in Lanzhou City and combining meteorological data of the same time period, the relationship between air temperature and the incidence of stroke was analyzed by using distributed lag nonlinear model. To analyze the influence of different temperature and different lag days on the incidence of stroke. The results showed that the incidence of stroke was closely related to meteorological factors, and the correlation analysis between meteorological factors and stroke case data showed that the daily incidence of stroke in Lanzhou City was correlated with temperature, air pressure and relative humidity. The correlation between temperature and stroke was nonlinear in different lag days, and the correlation intensity between different types of stroke and temperature was different. For patients with intracerebral hemorrhage, hypothermia showed a harmful effect on the same day, and the risk of hypothermia increased continuously, reaching the maximum at 3 days after the onset of hypothermia, which lasted until the 30th day after hypothermia occurred. The pathogenesis of cerebral infarction is different from that of cerebral hemorrhage. Both high temperature and low temperature can increase the risk of cerebral infarction, and the temperature effect can occur on the same day, which is strongest within 3 days. The effect of hypothermia on female or 19- 64 years old was greater than that on hyperthermia over 65 years old, hypothermia on different types of stroke, and hyperthermia on ischemic stroke. Temperature had different effects on stroke in different age and gender groups, and had different effects on different types of stroke. Temperature is an external cause of disease by affecting the body's function.
【作者單位】： 蘭州大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;上海市氣象與健康重點實驗室;成都信息工程大學(xué)大氣科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：上海市氣象與健康重點實驗室開放基金項目(QXJK201505) 2015年度蘭州大學(xué)“中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金”項目(lzujbky.2015.264)
【分類號】：R122.26;R743.3

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