本文選題：RCP. + 人口��； 參考：《地理研究》2016年12期

【摘要】：基于CMIP5的逐日最高溫度模擬資料、GGI情景數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)逐年代人口數(shù)據(jù),在RCP4.5情景下,以對(duì)應(yīng)柵格高溫日數(shù)與人口數(shù)量的乘積作為人口對(duì)高溫的暴露度指標(biāo),通過(guò)多模式集合平均預(yù)估未來(lái)中國(guó)人口對(duì)不同強(qiáng)度高溫的暴露度變化。結(jié)果表明:相比于基準(zhǔn)時(shí)段(1981-2010年),中國(guó)人口對(duì)高溫和強(qiáng)危害性高溫的暴露度從2021-2040年開(kāi)始明顯增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分別增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中國(guó)西部部分地區(qū)外,全國(guó)大部地區(qū)人群均受高溫的影響,在21世紀(jì)中后期中東部大部人口對(duì)高溫的暴露度超過(guò)10.0×106人?d;相比基準(zhǔn)時(shí)段,隨著年代的增長(zhǎng),中國(guó)人口對(duì)強(qiáng)危害性高溫的暴露度在范圍和強(qiáng)度上均有明顯增加;2081-2100年,人口對(duì)高溫和強(qiáng)危害性高溫的暴露度增幅減緩。從氣象地理區(qū)域上看,未來(lái)各時(shí)段人口對(duì)高溫、強(qiáng)危害性高溫的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明顯的區(qū)域主要集中在華北、黃淮、江南和江淮地區(qū),華南地區(qū)對(duì)強(qiáng)危害性高溫的暴露度增幅較小。高溫日數(shù)變化對(duì)全國(guó)人口對(duì)高溫暴露度的變化所產(chǎn)生的作用最明顯。多模式集合的預(yù)估結(jié)果可以為防控未來(lái)高溫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供重要的參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily maximum temperature simulation data of CMIP5, the annual population data of GGI-scenario database is introduced. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the product of the corresponding raster high-temperature days and the number of population is taken as the index of population exposure to high temperature. The variation of population exposure to high temperature with different intensities in China is estimated by multi-model set average. The results show that, compared with the baseline period of 1981-2010, the exposure of Chinese population to high temperature and severe hazardous high temperature increased significantly from 2021-2040 to 2081-2100 by 5.7 times and 17.5 times respectively, except in some parts of western China. Most people in most parts of the country are affected by high temperature. In the middle and late 21st century, the exposure to high temperature of the majority of the population in the middle and eastern part of the century exceeded 10.0 脳 106 people / d, compared with the growth of the reference period, The population exposure to high hazardous high temperature in China has obviously increased in the range and intensity of 2081-2100, and the increase of population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature has slowed down. From the point of view of the meteorological and geographical regions, the population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature will increase to a certain extent in the future, but the areas with obvious increase are mainly in North China, Huanghuai, South Yangtze River and Jianghuai areas. The increase of exposure to strong hazardous high temperature in South China is relatively small. The change of the number of days of high temperature has the most obvious effect on the change of population's exposure to high temperature. The prediction results of multi-model set can provide important reference value for preventing and controlling the future high temperature risk.
【作者單位】： 國(guó)家氣象中心;國(guó)家氣候中心;南京信息工程大學(xué)氣象災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)與評(píng)估協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;國(guó)家衛(wèi)星氣象中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41101517)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R122.21
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本文編號(hào)：1902993