本文選題：RCP. + 人口��； 參考：《地理研究》2016年12期

【摘要】：基于CMIP5的逐日最高溫度模擬資料、GGI情景數(shù)據(jù)庫逐年代人口數(shù)據(jù),在RCP4.5情景下,以對應(yīng)柵格高溫日數(shù)與人口數(shù)量的乘積作為人口對高溫的暴露度指標(biāo),通過多模式集合平均預(yù)估未來中國人口對不同強度高溫的暴露度變化。結(jié)果表明:相比于基準(zhǔn)時段(1981-2010年),中國人口對高溫和強危害性高溫的暴露度從2021-2040年開始明顯增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分別增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中國西部部分地區(qū)外,全國大部地區(qū)人群均受高溫的影響,在21世紀(jì)中后期中東部大部人口對高溫的暴露度超過10.0×106人?d;相比基準(zhǔn)時段,隨著年代的增長,中國人口對強危害性高溫的暴露度在范圍和強度上均有明顯增加;2081-2100年,人口對高溫和強危害性高溫的暴露度增幅減緩。從氣象地理區(qū)域上看,未來各時段人口對高溫、強危害性高溫的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明顯的區(qū)域主要集中在華北、黃淮、江南和江淮地區(qū),華南地區(qū)對強危害性高溫的暴露度增幅較小。高溫日數(shù)變化對全國人口對高溫暴露度的變化所產(chǎn)生的作用最明顯。多模式集合的預(yù)估結(jié)果可以為防控未來高溫風(fēng)險提供重要的參考價值。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily maximum temperature simulation data of CMIP5, the annual population data of GGI-scenario database is introduced. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the product of the corresponding raster high-temperature days and the number of population is taken as the index of population exposure to high temperature. The variation of population exposure to high temperature with different intensities in China is estimated by multi-model set average. The results show that, compared with the baseline period of 1981-2010, the exposure of Chinese population to high temperature and severe hazardous high temperature increased significantly from 2021-2040 to 2081-2100 by 5.7 times and 17.5 times respectively, except in some parts of western China. Most people in most parts of the country are affected by high temperature. In the middle and late 21st century, the exposure to high temperature of the majority of the population in the middle and eastern part of the century exceeded 10.0 脳 106 people / d, compared with the growth of the reference period, The population exposure to high hazardous high temperature in China has obviously increased in the range and intensity of 2081-2100, and the increase of population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature has slowed down. From the point of view of the meteorological and geographical regions, the population exposure to high temperature and strong hazardous high temperature will increase to a certain extent in the future, but the areas with obvious increase are mainly in North China, Huanghuai, South Yangtze River and Jianghuai areas. The increase of exposure to strong hazardous high temperature in South China is relatively small. The change of the number of days of high temperature has the most obvious effect on the change of population's exposure to high temperature. The prediction results of multi-model set can provide important reference value for preventing and controlling the future high temperature risk.
【作者單位】： 國家氣象中心;國家氣候中心;南京信息工程大學(xué)氣象災(zāi)害預(yù)警預(yù)報與評估協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;國家衛(wèi)星氣象中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41101517)
【分類號】：R122.21
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本文編號：1902993