本文選題：心腦血管疾病 + 呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病�。� 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：為了有效分析南京地區(qū)氣象條件對(duì)天氣敏感性疾病的影響,提高居民健康氣象服務(wù)水平,論文根據(jù)南京市2004-2010年常住人口每日死亡資料和氣象觀(guān)測(cè)資料,分別描述了南京市心腦血管疾病、呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡情況和寒潮天氣發(fā)生的時(shí)間分布特征。將寒潮作為危險(xiǎn)因素,時(shí)間序列的節(jié)假日效應(yīng)、長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)和短期趨勢(shì)作為混雜因素,利用廣義相加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)研究寒潮天氣的發(fā)生對(duì)天氣敏感性疾病死亡的影響作用,使用相對(duì)危險(xiǎn)度(relative risk, RR)將這種滯后性影響進(jìn)行量化,并且針對(duì)兩種不同疾病分別進(jìn)行了性別差異和年齡差異的分析。 結(jié)論如下： (1)南京市心腦血管疾病死亡每年冬季1月最高,夏季6月或7月最低；25歲以下、25-44歲、45-59歲三個(gè)年齡組所占比例均呈下降趨勢(shì),其中男性比例均高于女性；60歲以上人群所占比例上升,其中女性比例高于男性。呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡在冬季高發(fā),夏季最低,總體呈下降趨勢(shì),25歲以下、60歲以上人群比例下降,25-44歲和45-59歲人群比例上升,其中25-44歲人群,女性比例高于男性。 (2)日最低溫對(duì)心腦血管疾病全部死亡、男性死亡、女性死亡的滯后影響期均為2d,60歲以上人群的滯后響應(yīng)期為4d,該要素的變化對(duì)女性影響最大,對(duì)60歲以上人群的影響次之,再次為男性心腦血管疾病患者。日平均溫度對(duì)呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病全部死亡、女性和60歲以上人群死亡的滯后影響期均為4d,該要素變化對(duì)女性影響最大,其次為60歲以上人群,最后為全部呼吸性疾病患者。針對(duì)不同因變量修正得到的不同的GAM模型,可以用作呼吸性疾病死亡人數(shù)的時(shí)間序列研究。 (3)日平均相對(duì)濕度對(duì)心腦血管疾病全部死亡、男性、女性、60歲以上人群的滯后影響期分別為0d、2d、0-1d、Od,按影響程度大小的順序?yàn)椋盒哪X血管疾病全部死亡、60歲以上人群、女性、男性。針對(duì)不同因變量修正得到的不同的GAM模型,可以用作心腦血管疾病死亡人數(shù)的時(shí)間序列研究。 (4)南京地區(qū)近7a的寒潮高發(fā)月份為春季3月,總體穩(wěn)定少變少發(fā),其中低溫升高是寒潮少發(fā)的主導(dǎo)因素。寒潮期間對(duì)天氣敏感性疾病有影響作用的氣象要素有溫度和日平均相對(duì)濕度。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively analyze the influence of meteorological conditions on weather sensitive diseases in Nanjing and improve the health meteorological service of residents, the paper based on the daily death data and meteorological observation data of resident population in Nanjing from 2004 to 2010.The time distribution of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cold weather in Nanjing were described.Taking cold wave as risk factor, holiday effect of time series, long term trend and short term trend as mixed factor, generalized additive model (gamm) is used to study the effect of cold wave weather on the death of weather sensitive diseases.Relative risk risk (RRR) was used to quantify the lag effect, and the gender and age differences were analyzed for two different diseases.The conclusions are as follows:(1) the mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Nanjing was the highest in January and the lowest in June or July in summer. The proportion of the three age groups aged 25 to 44 years and 45 to 59 years all showed a decreasing trend.The proportion of male is higher than that of female over 60, and the proportion of female is higher than that of male.The death rate of respiratory diseases in winter was high and the lowest in summer. The overall trend was that the proportion of people under 25 years old and over 60 years old decreased and the proportion of people aged 25-44 years and 45-59 years old increased. Among them, the proportion of women aged 25-44 years was higher than that of men.The lag effect period of death of male and female was 4 days. The change of this factor had the greatest effect on women, followed by those over 60 years old.Again for male patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease.The lag period of death in women and over 60 years old was 4 days. The change of this factor had the greatest effect on women, followed by the people over 60 years old, and finally all patients with respiratory diseases.Different GAM models based on different dependent variables can be used to study the number of deaths from respiratory diseases in time series.The average daily relative humidity caused all death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. The delayed period of influence of male and female over 60 years old was 0 d / 2 d ~ 0 ~ (-1) d / d respectively. The order of influence degree was as follows: all death of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were over 60 years old, female, male.Different GAM models based on different dependent variables can be used to study the number of deaths from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in time series.(4) the high occurrence month of cold wave in Nanjing area in recent 7 years is March in spring, and the low temperature rise is the main factor of cold wave low occurrence.Temperature and mean daily relative humidity are the meteorological factors that affect weather sensitive diseases during cold wave.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R122

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本文編號(hào)：1771388