本文選題：氣溫　切入點：大氣污染物　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：研究目的 1.估計日均氣溫、日最大溫差、兩日日均氣溫差及其絕對值、早晚溫差及其絕對值、早中溫差及其絕對值對上海市兒童發(fā)熱就診人次的影響。 2.探索7日的日均氣溫對上海市醫(yī)保兒童呼吸科就診人次影響的效應(yīng)分布,并研究日均氣溫與上海市醫(yī)保兒童呼吸科就診人次之間的關(guān)系,進而建立預(yù)報模型。 3.分析日均氣溫對兒童燒傷急診人次的影響。評估PM10,SO2和NO2三種大氣污染物對兒童燒傷急診人次的短期暴露效應(yīng)、中長期暴露效應(yīng)及其與日均氣溫的交互作用。 研究方法 收集上海市兒童醫(yī)學(xué)中心2006/1/1-2010/8/23之間兒童發(fā)熱門診人次數(shù)據(jù)、上海市醫(yī)保局2008/4/1-2010/12/31之間兒童呼吸科門診人次數(shù)據(jù)、上海市長海醫(yī)院和瑞金醫(yī)院2002/1/1-2010/12/31兒童燒傷急診人次數(shù)據(jù)及同時段上海市的氣象資料和大氣污染物資料。分別以兒童患病就診人次作為健康效應(yīng)指標,估計氣溫變化及大氣污染對兒童健康的影響。運用混合廣義相加模型(mixed generalized additive model,MGAM),分析時間序列數(shù)據(jù)。在控制時間變遷趨勢、星期效應(yīng)和節(jié)假日效應(yīng)的基礎(chǔ)上,評估大氣污染對兒童健康的短期暴露效應(yīng)和中長期暴露效應(yīng),估計氣溫對兒童健康的延遲效應(yīng)分布和函數(shù)效應(yīng)曲線,并由此建立外部預(yù)報模型。 研究結(jié)果 1.日均氣溫、日最大溫差、兩日日均氣溫差、早晚溫差及其絕對值、早中溫差及其絕對值對上海市兒童發(fā)熱就診人次有影響。日均氣溫、日最大溫差、兩日日均氣溫差、早晚溫差及其絕對值、早中溫差及其絕對值越大,兒童發(fā)熱就診人次越多。其中,日均氣溫對兒童發(fā)熱就診人次的影響最大。 2.上海市醫(yī)保兒童呼吸科就診人次與多日的日均氣溫有關(guān)。觀察日的日均氣溫對就診人次的影響最大,觀察日的前3日次之,其它幾日的影響較小。7日加權(quán)氣溫與就診人次的關(guān)系呈現(xiàn)一條非對稱的鐘形曲線,在12.9℃左右,就診人次最多。現(xiàn)有模型對未來1日的就診人次的預(yù)報效果良好。 3.日均氣溫對兒童燒傷急診人次有影響,當(dāng)日均氣溫低于7.4℃時,兒童燒傷急診人次隨氣溫的升高而降低；當(dāng)日均氣溫高于7.4℃時,兒童燒傷急診人次隨氣溫的升高而增加；尤其當(dāng)日均氣溫高于27℃左右時,兒童燒傷急診人次隨氣溫的升高而顯著增加。PM10,SO2和對兒童燒傷急診人次有影響。NO2的周效應(yīng)與日均氣溫有交互作用；SO2的周效應(yīng)和月效應(yīng)與日均氣溫有交互作用；其他效應(yīng)均為主效應(yīng)。其他氣象因素保持不變時,空氣中PM10的日平均濃度、周平均濃度和月平均濃度升高10μg/m3,兒童燒傷急診人次分別增加為原來的1.004、1.014和1.005倍；空氣中SO2日平均濃度、中溫段時的周平均濃度、高溫段時的周平均濃度、低溫段時的月平均濃度、中溫段時的月平均濃度、高溫段時的月平均濃度和年平均濃度升高10μg/m3,兒童燒傷急診人次分別增加為原來的1.015、1.050、1.052、1.048、1.042、1.108和2.578倍；空氣中NO2中溫段時的周平均濃度、月平均濃度和年平均濃度升高10μg/m3,兒童燒傷急診人次分別增加為原來的1.028、1.068和3.260倍。 結(jié)論 上海市日均氣溫變化及大氣污染物水平對兒童健康有影響。了解氣溫及大氣污染與兒童健康的關(guān)聯(lián),有利于提醒父母做好相應(yīng)措施,預(yù)防和控制疾病的發(fā)生和發(fā)展,而且可以為醫(yī)療機構(gòu)管理者合理調(diào)配醫(yī)療資源、監(jiān)測突發(fā)事件提供可靠依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Purpose of study

1 . Estimated daily average temperature , daily maximum temperature difference , daily average temperature difference and its absolute value , early and late temperature difference and its absolute value , early - middle temperature difference and its absolute value influence the number of children ' s fever in Shanghai .

2 . To explore the effect distribution of daily average temperature of 7 days on the number of visits to respiratory department of Shanghai Medical Insurance Children , and to study the relationship between the daily average temperature and the attendance of medical insurance children in Shanghai , and then establish the prediction model .

3 . The effects of daily average temperature on the emergency number of children ' s burn were analyzed . The short - term exposure effect , medium - long - term exposure effect and the interaction between the three kinds of atmospheric pollutants ( PM _ 2 , SO _ 2 and NO _ 2 ) on the emergency number of children ' s burn were assessed .

Research Methods

The data of children ' s fever outpatient visits between 2006 / 1 / 1 - 2010 / 8 / 23 of Shanghai Municipal Children ' s Medical Center were collected . The data of outpatient visits of children ' s respiratory department between 2008 / 4 / 1 - 2010 / 12 / 31 , Shanghai Mayor Hai Hospital and Ruijin Hospital in 2002 / 1 / 1 - 2010 / 12 / 31 were collected . The effects of air pollution on children ' s health were estimated by using mixed generalized additive model ( MGAM ) . The effects of air pollution on children ' s health were estimated by using mixed generalized additive model ( MGAM ) .

Results of the study

1 . The daily average temperature , the daily maximum temperature difference , the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value , the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value of the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the daily average temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference , the early and late temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference and the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value of the temperature difference and the early and middle temperature difference and the absolute value thereof are larger .

2 . The number of visits to the respiratory department of Shanghai Medical Insurance Children is related to the daily average temperature of many days . The daily average temperature of the observation day is the largest on the number of visits , and the effect on the other several days is less than that on the first 3 days of the observation day . The relation between the weighted temperature and the visit time shows an asymmetric bell - shaped curve . At 12.9 鈩，

本文編號：1721919