本文關(guān)鍵詞： 手足口病 ROC曲線 控制圖 預(yù)警模型　出處：《重慶醫(yī)學(xué)》2017年22期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的基于控制圖法構(gòu)建武漢市武昌區(qū)手足口病預(yù)警模型,確定最佳預(yù)警界值,為該區(qū)手足口病監(jiān)測(cè)工作提供數(shù)據(jù)支持。方法從國(guó)家傳染病報(bào)告系統(tǒng)中整理2009-2014年武昌區(qū)手足口病數(shù)據(jù)并建立數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),采用移動(dòng)百分位數(shù)法建立預(yù)警模型,通過(guò)篩檢試驗(yàn)方法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),計(jì)算出靈敏度、特異度、陽(yáng)性預(yù)測(cè)值和陰性預(yù)測(cè)值,繪制ROC曲線并找出最佳預(yù)警界值。結(jié)果武漢市武昌區(qū)手足口病最佳預(yù)警界值為P90,其靈敏度、特異度、陽(yáng)性預(yù)測(cè)值和陰性預(yù)測(cè)值分別為75.00%、93.88%、50.00%和97.87%。結(jié)論手足口病預(yù)警界值的確定應(yīng)根據(jù)發(fā)病特點(diǎn)結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)匾咔閮?yōu)選,注重地區(qū)特異性,提高傳染病疫情監(jiān)測(cè)能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish an early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Wuchang District of Wuhan City based on the control chart method, and to determine the best warning threshold value. Methods the data of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) were collected from the national infectious disease reporting system in Wuchang from 2009 to 2014 and the database was established. The early warning model was established by moving percentile method, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated by screening test method. Results the best early warning value of hand, foot and mouth disease in Wuchang District of Wuhan City was P90. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 75.00%, respectively. Conclusion the early warning threshold of HFMD should be selected according to the characteristics of HFMD and local epidemic situation, pay attention to regional specificity and improve the surveillance ability of infectious diseases.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;湖北省武漢市武昌區(qū)疾病預(yù)防控制中心;湖北省宜昌市疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【分類號(hào)】：R181.8;R725.1

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