本文關(guān)鍵詞：神經(jīng)內(nèi)科護理工作量的時間序列研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

神經(jīng)內(nèi)科護理工作量的時間序列研究

Time series analysis of nursing workload in neurological wards

[1] [2]

CHEN Hong,JIANG Hong

復(fù)旦大學(xué)附屬華山醫(yī)院護理部,上海市200040

文章摘要：目的 了解神經(jīng)內(nèi)科護理工作量的變化趨勢,構(gòu)建每日護理工作量時間序列模型,預(yù)測護理工作量。方法 工作量衡量采用賦分法,由信息系統(tǒng)自動生成后提取每日護理工作量。采用時間序列分析構(gòu)建每日護理工作量的時間序列模型。結(jié)果 2013年4個季度總護理工作量變化如下：A病區(qū)呈先上升后下降的趨勢,B病區(qū)呈下降、上升,然后下降的趨勢。最佳擬合模型均為指數(shù)平滑模型,對2014年1月1-3日A、B兩個病區(qū)總護理工作量進行預(yù)測,A病區(qū)3d總護理工作量分別為：317.39分、316.14分、295.94分;B病區(qū)分別為：450.03分、449.38分、445.58分。結(jié)論 神經(jīng)內(nèi)科護理工作量在腦血管疾病等高發(fā)的冬春季節(jié)較夏秋季節(jié)低,不同部門各季度護理工作量不同。應(yīng)用時間序列分析可預(yù)測護理工作量,根據(jù)短期預(yù)測值調(diào)整當(dāng)日上班護士人數(shù),同時可評價現(xiàn)有人力配置策略的合理性。

Abstr：Objective To dissect the trends of nursing workload and construct time series model of daily nursing workload using time series analysis,and forcast the nursing workload in neurological wards. Methods The daily nursing workload was evaluated by Score Method. Time series analysis was used to construct the time series model of daily nursing workload. Results The trends of ward A＇s nursing workload increased firstly and decreased then.The trends of ward B＇s nursing workload decreased firstly,increased then and decreased ultimately. The fit time series model for ward A and ward B were Exponential Smoothing Model,the forecasted nursing workload of ward A were317.39、316.14、295.94 for the next three days,while the ward B were 450.03、449.38、445.58. Conclusions Neurological nursing workload in the winter and spring of high cerebro-vascular disease incidence were lower than the summer and fall. Time series analysis can predict the nursing workload through the short-term forecasting of time series model. It can also evaluate the reasonableness of the existing staffing strategy.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:Nursing Care Workload Nursing Administration Research

課題項目：國家臨床重點專科建設(shè)項目;復(fù)旦大學(xué)護理學(xué)院科研項目（FNF201236）

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：神經(jīng)內(nèi)科護理工作量的時間序列研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。