空間統(tǒng)計學方法在某市淋病疫情時空聚集性特征研究中的應用
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-14 17:57
【摘要】： 目的：了解深圳市2005～2009年淋病疫情時空聚集性特征,探討空間統(tǒng)計分析方法在淋病疫情分析中的應用價值和意義,為衛(wèi)生部門的淋病防控工作提供新的思路和理論依據(jù)。 方法：收集深圳市55個街道2005～2009年“疾病監(jiān)測信息報告管理系統(tǒng)”中報告的淋病病例及各街道地理坐標,建立具有空間屬性的疾病數(shù)據(jù)庫,借助SaTScan、ArcGIS等專業(yè)軟件,應用空間自回歸、空間掃描統(tǒng)計等空間統(tǒng)計分析方法對其時空分布規(guī)律進行探索性分析。 結果：1.全局自相關分析結果顯示：深圳市2005-2009年淋病年平均報告發(fā)病率存在空間自相關性(全局Moran's I=0.02,Z=2.07,全局G統(tǒng)計量為0.02,Z=4.02)；三維趨勢分析顯示,淋病發(fā)病率由西向東呈下降趨勢,南北方向則為兩頭高,中間低；局部空間自相關分析顯示：深圳西部南頭街道(Local Moran's I=0.41,Z=3.72)、蛇口街道(Local Moran's I=0.31,Z=2.47)和新安街道(Local Moran'sI=0.21,Z=2.25)為淋病高發(fā)病率聚集區(qū),深圳東部的大鵬街道(Local Moran's I=0.18,Z=2.08)和坑梓街道(Local Moran's I=0.16,Z=1.97)為低發(fā)病率聚集區(qū)。 2.單純空間掃描分析結果顯示2005年淋病高發(fā)病率聚集區(qū)為深圳西北部的松崗、公明街道,2006年為深圳西南部的南山、南頭街道,2007年為松崗、公明和沙井街道,2008年為深圳西南部的南頭街道,2009年為深圳西南部的南山和南頭街道；單純時間掃描分析顯示：深圳2005和2007年的淋病發(fā)病聚集時間段為11-12月,2006年聚集時間段為10-11月,2008年和2009年聚集時間分別為7～9月和5～7月；時空掃描分析顯示：深圳市粵海、南頭、南山和沙河街道的淋病發(fā)病在2005年3-7月有聚集性(LLR=84.06,RR=2.40),南山、南頭、粵海、招商和蛇口街道的淋病發(fā)病在2006年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=869.75,RR=8.87),南頭、南山、粵海和新安街道的淋病發(fā)病在2007年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=645.47, RR=6.45),南頭、南山、粵海、招商和蛇口街道的淋病發(fā)病在2008年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=959.05,RR=7.65),新安、西麗、南頭、西鄉(xiāng)、粵海和南山街道的淋病發(fā)病在2009年4～6月有聚集性(LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78)。 結論：以街道為基本單元的深圳市淋病病例和淋病發(fā)病率在時間、空間和時空分布上均存在聚集性。2005～2009年淋病的高發(fā)病率聚集區(qū)位于深圳西南部,低發(fā)病率聚集區(qū)位于深圳東北部。深圳市淋病病例空間聚集區(qū)主要位于西北部和西南部；淋病發(fā)病的聚集時間段有從第四季度向前推移的趨勢；時空聚集特點為每年第二季度左右在深圳西南部聚集。空間自相關和空間掃描統(tǒng)計等空間統(tǒng)計方法能夠用于揭示深圳市淋病疫情時空聚集性分布特征,并確定淋病防控的重點區(qū)域。
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of gonorrhea epidemic in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2009, and to explore the application value and significance of spatial statistical analysis method in the analysis of gonorrhea epidemic situation, and to provide a new way of thinking and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of gonorrhea in health department. Methods: the geographical coordinates of gonorrhea cases reported in the disease surveillance information management system from 2005 to 2009 in 55 streets of Shenzhen were collected, and the disease database with spatial attributes was set up, and SaTScan,ArcGIS and other professional software were used. Spatial autoregressive, spatial scanning statistics and other spatial statistical analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the spatial and temporal distribution. Results: 1. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the average reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen City (global Moran's I0.02, ZG 2.07, global G statistics: 0.02%, ZG 4.02), and the results showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen. Three-dimensional trend analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea decreased from west to east, and was high at both ends in the north and south, and low in the middle. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that (Local Moran's I (0.41), (Local Moran's (0.31) and Xin'an (Local Moran'sI=0.21,) in Nantou street, western Shenzhen, were 0.41, 0.31, and 2.47, respectively. The high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the (Local Moran's I of Dapeng street in the east of Shenzhen and the (Local Moran's I ~ (0.16) ~ (1. 16) Z ~ (1. 97) of Hang Zi street. 2. The results of simple spatial scanning analysis showed that the concentrated areas of high incidence of gonorrhea in 2005 were Songgang, Gongming street in northwestern Shenzhen, Nanshan and Nantou streets in southwestern Shenzhen in 2006, Songgang, Gongming and Shajing streets in 2007. Nantou street in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2008 and Nanshan and Nantou streets in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2009; Simple time scanning analysis showed that the aggregation period of gonorrhea in Shenzhen was 11-12 months in 2005 and 2007, 10-11 months in 2006, 7-9 and 5-7 months in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong, Nantou, Nanshan and Shahe in Shenzhen City had agglomeration (LLR=84.06,RR=2.40) in March-July 2005, Nanshan, Nantou, Yuehai, Nanshan, Nantou, Guangdong, etc. The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Merchants and Shekou was clustered (LLR=869.75,RR=8.87) from April to June 2006, and the gonorrhea in Nantou, Nanshan, Guangdong and Xinan streets was LLR=645.47, RR=6.45 and Nantou from April to June of 2007. The incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan, Guangdong, Merchants and Shekou streets from April to June 2008 was LLR=959.05,RR=7.65, Xin'an, Xili, Nantou, Xixiang, The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong and Nanshan was LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78 from April to June 2009. Conclusion: the incidence of gonorrhea and the incidence of gonorrhea are clustered in time, space and time. The high incidence area of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2009 is located in the southwest of Shenzhen. The low incidence area is located in the northeast of Shenzhen. The spatial agglomeration area of gonorrhea cases in Shenzhen is mainly located in the northwest and southwest of China, and the agglomeration period of gonorrhea has the tendency of moving forward from the fourth quarter, and the spatio-temporal aggregation is characterized by the clustering in the southwest of Shenzhen in the second quarter of each year. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning statistics can be used to reveal the spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics of gonorrhea in Shenzhen and to determine the key areas for the prevention and control of gonorrhea.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：R759.2
本文編號：2331884
[Abstract]:Objective: to understand the spatial and temporal characteristics of gonorrhea epidemic in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2009, and to explore the application value and significance of spatial statistical analysis method in the analysis of gonorrhea epidemic situation, and to provide a new way of thinking and theoretical basis for the prevention and control of gonorrhea in health department. Methods: the geographical coordinates of gonorrhea cases reported in the disease surveillance information management system from 2005 to 2009 in 55 streets of Shenzhen were collected, and the disease database with spatial attributes was set up, and SaTScan,ArcGIS and other professional software were used. Spatial autoregressive, spatial scanning statistics and other spatial statistical analysis methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of the spatial and temporal distribution. Results: 1. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the average reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen City (global Moran's I0.02, ZG 2.07, global G statistics: 0.02%, ZG 4.02), and the results showed that there was a spatial autocorrelation between 2005 and 2009 in the reported incidence of gonorrhea in Shenzhen. Three-dimensional trend analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea decreased from west to east, and was high at both ends in the north and south, and low in the middle. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that (Local Moran's I (0.41), (Local Moran's (0.31) and Xin'an (Local Moran'sI=0.21,) in Nantou street, western Shenzhen, were 0.41, 0.31, and 2.47, respectively. The high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the high incidence area of gonorrhea, the low incidence area, the (Local Moran's I of Dapeng street in the east of Shenzhen and the (Local Moran's I ~ (0.16) ~ (1. 16) Z ~ (1. 97) of Hang Zi street. 2. The results of simple spatial scanning analysis showed that the concentrated areas of high incidence of gonorrhea in 2005 were Songgang, Gongming street in northwestern Shenzhen, Nanshan and Nantou streets in southwestern Shenzhen in 2006, Songgang, Gongming and Shajing streets in 2007. Nantou street in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2008 and Nanshan and Nantou streets in the southwest of Shenzhen in 2009; Simple time scanning analysis showed that the aggregation period of gonorrhea in Shenzhen was 11-12 months in 2005 and 2007, 10-11 months in 2006, 7-9 and 5-7 months in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong, Nantou, Nanshan and Shahe in Shenzhen City had agglomeration (LLR=84.06,RR=2.40) in March-July 2005, Nanshan, Nantou, Yuehai, Nanshan, Nantou, Guangdong, etc. The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Merchants and Shekou was clustered (LLR=869.75,RR=8.87) from April to June 2006, and the gonorrhea in Nantou, Nanshan, Guangdong and Xinan streets was LLR=645.47, RR=6.45 and Nantou from April to June of 2007. The incidence of gonorrhea in Nanshan, Guangdong, Merchants and Shekou streets from April to June 2008 was LLR=959.05,RR=7.65, Xin'an, Xili, Nantou, Xixiang, The incidence of gonorrhea in the streets of Guangdong and Nanshan was LLR=1157.85,RR=6.78 from April to June 2009. Conclusion: the incidence of gonorrhea and the incidence of gonorrhea are clustered in time, space and time. The high incidence area of gonorrhea from 2005 to 2009 is located in the southwest of Shenzhen. The low incidence area is located in the northeast of Shenzhen. The spatial agglomeration area of gonorrhea cases in Shenzhen is mainly located in the northwest and southwest of China, and the agglomeration period of gonorrhea has the tendency of moving forward from the fourth quarter, and the spatio-temporal aggregation is characterized by the clustering in the southwest of Shenzhen in the second quarter of each year. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning statistics can be used to reveal the spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics of gonorrhea in Shenzhen and to determine the key areas for the prevention and control of gonorrhea.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：R759.2
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