在新發(fā)突發(fā)傳染病的早期階段,快速應(yīng)對(duì)對(duì)于疫情防控至關(guān)重要。用于控制疫情的公共假期能為大規(guī)模、迅速地進(jìn)行社會(huì)隔離和其他舉措提供關(guān)鍵的時(shí)間窗口期。本研究的目的是探討抗疫假期的起始時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)和持續(xù)時(shí)間對(duì)中國早期新冠病毒肺炎疫情傳播的影響。我們開發(fā)了一個(gè)房室模型來模擬從2020年1月開始中國新冠病毒肺炎疫情的動(dòng)態(tài)傳播;預(yù)測(cè)并比較了春節(jié)期間在有抗疫假期和沒有抗疫假期下的疫情傳播;考慮了抗疫假期在不同持續(xù)時(shí)間、不同起始時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn),以及在關(guān)于病毒傳播率的不同假設(shè)下的多種情況;估計(jì)了在不同情況下達(dá)到某些感染閾值所需的天數(shù)延遲。結(jié)果表明,中國的抗疫假期使新冠病毒肺炎疫情的傳播停滯了許多天。與不設(shè)抗疫假期的場(chǎng)景相比,基礎(chǔ)場(chǎng)景的抗疫假期（湖北省為21 d,中國所有其他省為10 d）可使確診感染100 000例的時(shí)間延遲7.54 d。持續(xù)時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)的抗疫假期會(huì)對(duì)疫情防控產(chǎn)生更大的影響。為期21 d的全國性抗疫假期可使確診感染100 000例的時(shí)間延遲近10 d。此外,研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在新發(fā)突發(fā)傳染病較早階段實(shí)施抗疫假期比較晚階段實(shí)施對(duì)遏制疫情蔓延更有效,抗疫假期期間采取額外的控制措施可以增強(qiáng)疫情控制效果�？傊�,抗疫假期能... 

【文章頁數(shù)】：15 頁

【文章目錄】：
1. Introduction
2. Methods
    2.1. Model description
    2.2. Data sources,parameter estimation,and calibration
    2.3. Projection scenarios
        2.3.1. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control with different durations
        2.3.2. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control with different starting times
        2.3.3. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control when other policies are implemented that further reduce transmission rate
    2.4.‘‘Buying time”:By how many days did the outbreak-control holiday delay epidemic spread?
    2.5. Role of the funding source
3. Results
    3.1. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control with different durations
    3.2. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control with different starting times
    3.3. Epidemic impact of public holidays for outbreak control during which the transmission rate is further reduced
4. Discussion
1.引言
2.方法
    2.1.模型描述
    2.2.數(shù)據(jù)源、參數(shù)估計(jì)和校準(zhǔn)
    2.3.預(yù)測(cè)場(chǎng)景
        2.3.1.不同持續(xù)時(shí)間下公共假期對(duì)疫情控制的影響
        2.3.2.不同時(shí)間起點(diǎn)下公共假期對(duì)疫情控制的影響
        2.3.3.在同時(shí)實(shí)施其他政策以進(jìn)一步降低病毒傳播率的情況下，公共假期對(duì)疫情控制的影響
    2.4.“爭(zhēng)取時(shí)間”——抗疫假期能夠延緩疫情傳播多少天
    2.5.資金來源的作用
3.結(jié)果
    3.1.不同持續(xù)時(shí)間下公共假期對(duì)疫情控制的影響
    3.2.公共假期在不同時(shí)間起點(diǎn)下對(duì)疫情控制的影響
    3.3.傳播率進(jìn)一步降低的情況下公共假期對(duì)疫情控制的影響
4.討論



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