【摘要】： 近幾年,突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件的頻繁爆發(fā),不僅阻礙了社會、經(jīng)濟的健康發(fā)展,而且危及到社會穩(wěn)定。我國公共衛(wèi)生部門在處理這些突發(fā)事件時,意識到中國在突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件的危機意識、決策機制、組織協(xié)調(diào)和防疫控制等方面存在著明顯的不足。因此,本文從細(xì)節(jié)著眼,將問題聚焦在突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)事件的擴散問題上所研究的擴散路徑能夠給有關(guān)部門處理類似突發(fā)公共衛(wèi)生事件提供建議,做到防患于未然。 本文以危機管理理論、事件鏈理論和突發(fā)事件擴散機理為基礎(chǔ),通過對突發(fā)性傳染病的性質(zhì)、成因、特點和影響因素進(jìn)行分析,得到突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)后可能會隨之發(fā)生的次生事件以及次生事件之間的相互作用。本文調(diào)查問卷中所用到的量表依據(jù)Likert量表的制作原理進(jìn)行設(shè)計,依據(jù)原始數(shù)據(jù),使用LISREL軟件計算原始數(shù)據(jù)的協(xié)方差,繪制突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)事件的擴散路徑圖,根據(jù)t值原則進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計,先后刪除系數(shù)不顯著的路徑,重新進(jìn)行分析過程,依據(jù)得出的擬合優(yōu)度分析報告判斷是否終止模型的調(diào)整,最終導(dǎo)出突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)事件的擴散路徑。 由分析得到的突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)事件的擴散路徑可知,當(dāng)突發(fā)性傳染病爆發(fā)后,會導(dǎo)致謠言傳播、居民染病和疫苗研究等三個一級次生事件,而謠言傳播又會導(dǎo)致藥品搶購二級次生事件,居民染病會導(dǎo)致醫(yī)院救治能力不足、人員死亡和集會限制等三個二級次生事件。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the frequent outbreak of public health incidents not only hinders the healthy development of society and economy, but also endangers the social stability. In dealing with these emergencies, China's public health departments are aware of the obvious deficiencies in the crisis consciousness, decision-making mechanism, organization and coordination, and epidemic prevention and control of public health emergencies in China. Therefore, from the point of view of detail, this paper focuses on the problem of the spread of sudden outbreak of infectious diseases, which can provide suggestions for the relevant departments to deal with similar sudden public health events, so as to prevent and prevent from happening in the first place. Based on the theory of crisis management, the theory of event chain and the mechanism of sudden event diffusion, this paper analyzes the nature, causes, characteristics and influencing factors of sudden infectious diseases. The secondary events and the interactions between the secondary events that may occur after the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases are obtained. The scale used in the questionnaire is designed according to the production principle of the Likert scale. According to the original data, the covariance of the original data is calculated by using the LISREL software, and the diffusion path map of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is drawn. According to the t-value principle, the parameter estimation is carried out, the path with the coefficient is deleted successively, the analysis process is re-carried out, and the adjustment of the model is judged according to the obtained goodness-of-fit analysis report. Finally, the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases is derived. According to the analysis of the spreading path of the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases, it can be seen that the outbreak of sudden infectious diseases will lead to the spread of rumors, the infection of residents and the study of vaccines, which are three primary secondary events. The spread of rumors will lead to the second-level secondary events of drug purchase, and the infection of residents will lead to three secondary events, such as inadequate capacity of hospital treatment, death of personnel and restriction of assembly.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：R184

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 祝江斌;重大傳染病疫情地方政府應(yīng)對能力研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2011年

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本文編號：2433717