【摘要】：目的篩選山東省干旱敏感的傳染性疾病,為旱期傳染病預(yù)防控制提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。方法比較山東省威海、濟(jì)寧、臨沂、棗莊干旱年與非干旱年甲乙類法定傳染病的發(fā)病率,對上述地區(qū)及所轄縣1997—1999年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)(SPI)與同期、滯后1~3月的甲乙類法定傳染病月發(fā)病率進(jìn)行相關(guān)分析。結(jié)果干旱年菌痢、麻疹、猩紅熱、肺結(jié)核、出血熱、肝炎(總)、乙肝發(fā)病率高于非干旱年。SPI在濟(jì)寧地區(qū)與當(dāng)月菌痢月發(fā)病率相關(guān)系數(shù)最大(rs=-0.392,P=0.018);SPI在威海地區(qū)與滯后3月的腎綜合征出血熱月發(fā)病率相關(guān)系數(shù)最大(rs=-0.552,P0.001),而臨沂、濟(jì)寧、棗莊SPI分別與當(dāng)月(rs=0.430,P=0.009)、滯后1月(rs=0.384,P=0.021)、當(dāng)月的發(fā)病率(rs=0.445,P=0.007)關(guān)系最為密切;SPI在棗莊、臨沂地區(qū)分別與滯后3月(rs=0.355,P=0.034)、滯后1月的肺結(jié)核月發(fā)病率(rs=0.469,P=0.004)關(guān)系最為密切�；诳h級的SPI與菌痢、麻疹月發(fā)病率呈負(fù)相關(guān),而猩紅熱、肺結(jié)核、腎綜合征出血熱、肝炎(總)、乙肝中,SPI與單病種月發(fā)病率相關(guān)方向在不同縣不完全一致。結(jié)論山東省甲乙類法定傳染病中菌痢、麻疹、猩紅熱、肺結(jié)核、腎綜合征出血熱、肝炎(總)、乙肝的發(fā)病可能與干旱有關(guān),其中菌疾、麻疹的發(fā)病率與干旱程度呈正相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Objective to screen drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Shandong Province and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of drought-related infectious diseases. Methods the incidence of class A and B infectious diseases in Weihai, Jining, Linyi, Zaozhuang and non-arid years in Weihai, Shandong Province was compared. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the above areas and counties was compared with that in the same period. The monthly incidence of class A and B infectious diseases with a lag of 1 ~ 3 months was analyzed. Results the incidence of bacterial dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, haemorrhagic fever, hepatitis B (total) and hepatitis B in drought years were higher than those in non-drought years. The correlation coefficient between SPI and monthly bacterial dysentery in Jining area was the highest (rs=-0.392,P=0.018). The monthly incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (rs=-0.552,P0.001) with SPI in Weihai area was the largest (rs=-0.552,P0.001), while SPI in Linyi, Jining and Zaozhuang was correlated with rs=0.430,P=0.009 and rs=0.384, respectively. The incidence rate (rs=0.445,P=0.007) was the most closely related in that month. SPI in Zaozhuang and Linyi area was most closely related to the monthly incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis (rs=0.469,P=0.004), which was delayed by 3 months (rs=0.355,P=0.034) and 1 month respectively. Based on county level SPI and bacillary dysentery, the monthly incidence of measles was negatively correlated, while scarlet fever, pulmonary tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total), hepatitis B, SPI and the monthly incidence of single disease were not completely consistent in different counties. Conclusion the incidence of bacillary dysentery, measles, scarlet fever, tuberculosis, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, hepatitis (total) and hepatitis B may be related to drought in Shandong Province.
【作者單位】： 山東大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院流行病與衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計學(xué)系;山東省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：國家重大科學(xué)研究計劃(2012CB955502) 山東大學(xué)自主創(chuàng)新基金(2012TS087) 山東大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院青年人才創(chuàng)新基金(201101)
【分類號】：R181.3
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本文編號：2422003