發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-01-25 07:30

【摘要】： 進(jìn)入21世紀(jì),社會(huì)發(fā)展伴隨著各種危機(jī),人類已步入充滿諸多不確定因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)社會(huì)。SARS疫情的暴發(fā)、禽流感疫情與甲型H1N1流感的流行等突發(fā)性公共衛(wèi)生事件迫使我們必須更加科學(xué)地對(duì)待這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 2003年以來(lái),高致病性禽流感在全球不同國(guó)家和地區(qū)頻頻暴發(fā),疫情范圍不斷擴(kuò)大,不僅對(duì)全球和區(qū)域內(nèi)造成重大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,而且對(duì)人類生命安全及生態(tài)環(huán)境造成嚴(yán)重威脅,引起了社會(huì)各界的關(guān)注。禽流感是禽鳥(niǎo)中由A型流感病毒菌株引起的一種傳染病,其發(fā)生、傳播與自然條件、候鳥(niǎo)、疫情態(tài)勢(shì)、家禽養(yǎng)殖、水稻種植及禽類產(chǎn)品運(yùn)輸貿(mào)易有密切關(guān)系。 鄱陽(yáng)湖是中國(guó)最大的淡水湖泊,是全球候鳥(niǎo)重要的越冬棲息地。鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)是全國(guó)水稻主要種植區(qū)之一,家禽養(yǎng)殖條件優(yōu)越,人工飼養(yǎng)野鴨比重較大,區(qū)內(nèi)外交通通達(dá)水平較高,具有國(guó)內(nèi)較大的禽蛋產(chǎn)品交易市場(chǎng)。 論文在分析禽流感發(fā)生與傳播研究現(xiàn)狀,綜述禽流感風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其影響的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合在鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)野外調(diào)查與農(nóng)戶訪談收集整理的數(shù)據(jù)資料,確定了鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,建立了基于鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用多指標(biāo)綜合評(píng)分法通過(guò)模型計(jì)算鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率值,提出了若干預(yù)防與控制禽流感在本區(qū)暴發(fā)的措施建議。 通過(guò)對(duì)鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析,得出以下結(jié)論: (1)建立了由總目標(biāo)層、目標(biāo)要素層、準(zhǔn)則層與指標(biāo)層組成的鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。其中目標(biāo)要素層包括自然因素與人為因素;準(zhǔn)則層包含了生態(tài)環(huán)境因素、候鳥(niǎo)因素、本地及周邊地區(qū)疫情因素、飼養(yǎng)模式因素、交通貿(mào)易因素、屠宰加工因素、預(yù)防與控制因素共7項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素;指標(biāo)層包含了23個(gè)子風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。 (2)通過(guò)層次分析法并運(yùn)用層次分析法軟件計(jì)算出各子風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的權(quán)重值。根據(jù)權(quán)重值劃分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),確定高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素為周邊當(dāng)前疫情;較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素有六個(gè):分別為家禽免疫密度、本地以前疫情、候鳥(niǎo)與家禽接觸、屠宰場(chǎng)廢棄物處理、疫情突發(fā)防控能力與早期檢測(cè)診斷水平。 (3)運(yùn)用多指標(biāo)綜合評(píng)分方法通過(guò)計(jì)算模型求出了鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)禽流感發(fā)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率,初步認(rèn)為鄱陽(yáng)湖區(qū)屬于高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, social development is accompanied by various crises. Human beings have stepped into a risky society full of many uncertain factors. The outbreak of SARS epidemic situation, Sudden public health events, such as avian influenza and H1N1 influenza, force us to deal with these risks more scientifically. Since 2003, the highly pathogenic avian influenza has frequently broken out in different countries and regions of the world, and the epidemic scope has been continuously expanded, which not only causes great economic losses to the whole world and within the region, but also poses a serious threat to the safety of human life and the ecological environment. Has aroused the attention of all walks of life. Avian influenza is an infectious disease caused by influenza A strain in birds. Its occurrence and transmission are closely related to natural conditions, migratory birds, epidemic situation, poultry farming, rice cultivation and poultry product transport trade. Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China and an important winter habitat for migratory birds in the world. Poyang Lake region is one of the main rice growing areas in China. The poultry breeding conditions are superior, the proportion of artificial wild ducks is large, the level of transportation in and out of the area is relatively high, and there is a large domestic market for poultry and egg products. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of avian influenza occurrence and transmission, summarizing the risk of avian influenza and its influence, combining the data collected by field investigation and peasant household interview in Poyang Lake region, the paper determines the risk factors of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region. Based on the index system of avian influenza occurrence risk in Poyang Lake region, the risk probability value of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region was calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and some measures to prevent and control bird flu outbreak in Poyang Lake region were put forward. Based on the risk analysis of avian influenza in Poyang Lake region, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the risk assessment index system of avian influenza occurrence in Poyang Lake region is established, which is composed of total target layer, target element layer, criterion layer and index layer. The target elements include natural factors and human factors. The criterion layer includes seven risk factors, including ecological environment factors, migratory birds factors, epidemic situation factors in local and surrounding areas, breeding mode factors, traffic and trade factors, slaughtering and processing factors, prevention and control factors. The indicator layer contains 23 sub-risk factors. (2) the weight of each sub-risk factor is calculated by AHP and AHP software. According to the weight value, the high risk factors are determined to be the current epidemic situation. There are six higher risk factors: poultry immune density, local epidemic situation, contact between migratory birds and poultry, slaughterhouse waste disposal, outbreak prevention and control ability and early detection and diagnosis level. (3) the probability of avian influenza risk in Poyang Lake region is calculated by using multi-index comprehensive scoring method, and it is preliminarily considered that Poyang Lake region belongs to high risk area.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號(hào)】：S855;R184

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 白裕兵;浦華;;禽流感防控經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究綜述[J];中國(guó)畜牧雜志;2013年06期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 李謂娟;廈門(mén)市同安區(qū)高致病性禽流感免疫抗體監(jiān)測(cè)與分析[D];福建農(nóng)林大學(xué);2010年

2 江文斌;鷹潭市畜牧業(yè)發(fā)展與主要?jiǎng)游镆卟★L(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析[D];江西農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：2414929