【摘要】：目的對廣東省時空模型試點縣區(qū)在預警閾值調(diào)整前后的時空模型和時間模型的預警效能進行評價,了解時空模型的預警效能是否更優(yōu)。方法對2008年4月21日-2012年12月31日廣東省時空模型試點縣區(qū)的時空模型和時間模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時性和熱點定位進行評價。結果預警閾值調(diào)整前,時空模型與時間模型的靈敏度分別為67.74%和35.48%(χ2=12.917,P0.01),特異度分別為20.25%和8.23%(χ2=28.063,P0.01),及時性M分別為-0.49 d和1.65 d;預警閾值調(diào)整后,時空模型與時間模型的靈敏度分別為78.43%和43.14%(χ2=13.326,P0.01),特異度分別為31.82%和13.35%(χ2=34.325,P0.01),及時性M分別為-0.27 d和0.67 d;預警閾值調(diào)整前后,時間模型均無法從空間上識別熱點區(qū)域,而時空模型則可以發(fā)現(xiàn)空間聚集性異常。結論無論是預警閾值調(diào)整前還是后,時空模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時性和熱點定位均優(yōu)于時間模型;預警閾值調(diào)整后的時空模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時性和熱點定位均優(yōu)于調(diào)整前。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the early warning effectiveness of spatio-temporal model and time model before and after threshold adjustment in Guangdong Province, and to find out whether the spatio-temporal model is more effective. Methods from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatiotemporal model and time model in pilot counties of Guangdong Province were evaluated. Results before the adjustment of early warning threshold, the sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 67.74% and 35.48%, respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (12.917) P _ (0.01), and the specificity were 20.25% and 8.23% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (2) ~ (28.063) P _ (0.01), respectively. The timeliness M was -0.49 d and 1.65 d respectively; The sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 78.43% and 43.14% respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (13) 326 ~ (26) P _ (0.01), the specificity were 31.82% and 13.35% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (34) ~ (325) P _ (0.01), respectively. Timeliness M was -0.27 d and 0.67 d respectively; Before and after the pre-warning threshold is adjusted, the time model can not identify the hot spot from the space, but the space-time model can find the anomaly of spatial aggregation. Conclusion the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatio-temporal model are better than that of the time model, both before and after the threshold adjustment. The sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot orientation of the model are better than those before adjustment.
【作者單位】： 廣東省疾病預防控制中心公共衛(wèi)生應急部;
【基金】：廣東省“十二五”醫(yī)學重點學科(公共衛(wèi)生應急管理) 廣東省醫(yī)學科研基金項目(C2013003)
【分類號】：R181.82
，

本文編號：2388806