應(yīng)用隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)SARS在北京傳播規(guī)律的研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-20 17:30
【摘要】： 傳染性非典型肺炎,又稱嚴(yán)重急性呼吸綜合癥傳染(Severe AcuteRespiratory Syndrome,SARS),是由SARS冠狀病毒感染引起的新發(fā)急性傳染病.2002年11月在我國(guó)廣東省首次發(fā)現(xiàn)后,至2003年6月,在短短時(shí)間里,蔓延肆虐于世界32個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū),患者達(dá)八千多例,死亡七百多人,其中中國(guó)內(nèi)地5327例(其中廣東報(bào)告1512例),死亡349例(其中廣東報(bào)告58例).2004年廣東又發(fā)現(xiàn)4個(gè)新發(fā)病例,此外,臺(tái)灣、新加坡、和我國(guó)還發(fā)生過(guò)實(shí)驗(yàn)室感染事故,SARS已成為二十一世紀(jì)首個(gè)對(duì)人類健康造成嚴(yán)重危害的傳染病. 研究SARS的傳播規(guī)律,一方面可以使我們從理論上了解SARS的傳播規(guī)律;另一方面,為將來(lái)出現(xiàn)其它感染性疾病提供預(yù)防和治療措施. 本文首先回顧了前人對(duì)SARS的研究現(xiàn)狀,他們是采用Malthus模型和Logistic模型對(duì)SARS在北京的傳播情況進(jìn)行擬合的,也有采用SIR模型對(duì)北京SARS疫情的流行規(guī)律進(jìn)行擬合的,擬合效果較好,但是這些模型都過(guò)于理想化;于是,有必要進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步研究,在這里用隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論來(lái)探討SARS在北京的傳播,同時(shí)得到了相應(yīng)結(jié)論,并提出了合理的預(yù)防措施. 通過(guò)比較,可以看出,雖然前人的研究可以使我們很直觀的了解SARS病例隨時(shí)間變化的情況,但是它只是一種事后描述;使用隨機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論可以得到當(dāng)傳染能力T0.0375時(shí),疾病不會(huì)大規(guī)模流行.
[Abstract]:Infectious atypical pneumonia (Severe AcuteRespiratory Syndrome,SARS), also called severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), is a new acute infectious disease caused by SARS coronavirus infection. In a short period of time, it has spread to 32 countries and regions in the world, with more than 8,000 patients and more than 700 deaths, including 5327 cases in the mainland of China (of which 1512 cases were reported from Guangdong). There were 349 deaths (58 reported in Guangdong). Four new cases were found in Guangdong in 2004. In addition, there were laboratory infections in Taiwan, Singapore, and China. SARS has become the first infectious disease to cause serious harm to human health in 21 century. On the one hand, we can understand the transmission law of SARS in theory; on the other hand, we can provide preventive and therapeutic measures for other infectious diseases in the future. In this paper, we first reviewed the current research status of SARS by predecessors. They used Malthus model and Logistic model to fit the transmission of SARS in Beijing, and SIR model was used to fit the epidemic pattern of SARS epidemic in Beijing, and the fitting effect was good. But these models are too idealistic; Therefore, it is necessary to further study the spread of SARS in Beijing by using the stochastic network theory. At the same time, the corresponding conclusions are obtained, and reasonable preventive measures are put forward. Through comparison, we can see that although previous studies can make us understand the changes of SARS cases over time, it is only a description after the fact; Using stochastic network theory, it can be concluded that when infectious capacity T 0.0375, the disease does not spread in a large scale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2007
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;O157.5
[Abstract]:Infectious atypical pneumonia (Severe AcuteRespiratory Syndrome,SARS), also called severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), is a new acute infectious disease caused by SARS coronavirus infection. In a short period of time, it has spread to 32 countries and regions in the world, with more than 8,000 patients and more than 700 deaths, including 5327 cases in the mainland of China (of which 1512 cases were reported from Guangdong). There were 349 deaths (58 reported in Guangdong). Four new cases were found in Guangdong in 2004. In addition, there were laboratory infections in Taiwan, Singapore, and China. SARS has become the first infectious disease to cause serious harm to human health in 21 century. On the one hand, we can understand the transmission law of SARS in theory; on the other hand, we can provide preventive and therapeutic measures for other infectious diseases in the future. In this paper, we first reviewed the current research status of SARS by predecessors. They used Malthus model and Logistic model to fit the transmission of SARS in Beijing, and SIR model was used to fit the epidemic pattern of SARS epidemic in Beijing, and the fitting effect was good. But these models are too idealistic; Therefore, it is necessary to further study the spread of SARS in Beijing by using the stochastic network theory. At the same time, the corresponding conclusions are obtained, and reasonable preventive measures are put forward. Through comparison, we can see that although previous studies can make us understand the changes of SARS cases over time, it is only a description after the fact; Using stochastic network theory, it can be concluded that when infectious capacity T 0.0375, the disease does not spread in a large scale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2007
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3;O157.5
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條
1 王新為,李勁松,金敏,甄蓓,孔慶鑫,宋農(nóng),肖文s，
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