【摘要】： 隨著工業(yè)化的發(fā)展，人們生活水平的提高，人們越來越重視生活質(zhì)量。城市大氣污染對人類的危害、氣象環(huán)境對人類的疾病以及健康的影響，日益引起社會(huì)的關(guān)注。要控制大氣污染，首先要了解該地大氣污染的現(xiàn)狀，并研究其與氣象條件的關(guān)系，，在不利于污染擴(kuò)散的氣象條件下控制污染物排放�？諝馕廴绢A(yù)報(bào)是對大氣污染進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)控制的一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)性工作。 天氣的變化不但會(huì)影響到人體的舒適度，還會(huì)影響到人體對疾病的抵御能力，使某些疾病加重或惡化，特別是一些特殊天氣，由于氣象要素變化劇烈，會(huì)使某些人引發(fā)疾病或者病情加重。研究氣象條件人體健康的關(guān)系，特別是與某些疾病的關(guān)系，并做出預(yù)報(bào)，人們可以根據(jù)各自的情況合理安排自己的工作、生活。 本文使用的大氣污染資料由濰坊市環(huán)境監(jiān)測站提供，從2004年1月到2006年6月。病例資料由濰坊市人民醫(yī)院住院處提供，時(shí)間從1997～2006年。氣象資料由濰坊市氣象臺提供，包括1951年以來的各種有關(guān)氣候資料。 分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：PM_(10)是濰坊市的首要污染物，全年有51.7％的時(shí)間屬于輕度污染，另有5.2％的時(shí)間屬于中度、重度污染。濰坊市冬季污染濃度遠(yuǎn)大于夏季，這與自然氣象條件有關(guān)，也與冬季取暖用煤大量增加，污染排放加劇有關(guān)。在一日中污染物濃度變化呈雙峰型，上午和晚上最高，這是由于氣象條件和人類活動(dòng)共同影響產(chǎn)生的。 降水能夠明顯減輕大氣污染，在有大霧時(shí)，PM_(10)觀測值很高。由于水滴的吸附作用，易溶于水的污染物特別是SO_2等物質(zhì)的觀測數(shù)值很低，不能真實(shí)反映此時(shí)大氣中的污染程度。隨著風(fēng)速的增大，污染物濃度越來越低，但當(dāng)風(fēng)速超過5m／s時(shí)，污染物濃度有隨風(fēng)速增大而升高的趨勢。風(fēng)速超過8m／s后，SO_2和NO_2的濃度又開始降低，但PM_(10)的濃度繼續(xù)升高。5m／s的風(fēng)速最有利于PM_(10)的擴(kuò)散和稀釋。 通過對預(yù)報(bào)對象和預(yù)報(bào)因子的相關(guān)分析，分季節(jié)建立了統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方程，并根據(jù)潛勢預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行訂正，能夠做出成功的預(yù)報(bào)。 冬季是流感的高發(fā)期，長期氣溫偏高、干旱少雨、強(qiáng)冷空氣活動(dòng)、空氣污染嚴(yán)重，是誘發(fā)流感的重要因素，通過流感病例于上述氣象因子的相關(guān)分析，建立了預(yù)報(bào)方程。 寒冷天氣影響是誘發(fā)冠心病的重要?dú)庀髼l件，根據(jù)不同時(shí)段的變溫及變壓，分季節(jié)建立了預(yù)報(bào)方程。 根據(jù)濰坊市的氣候特點(diǎn)和人們的生活習(xí)慣，利用溫度、濕度、風(fēng)這3個(gè)影響人體舒適度的最重要因子分季節(jié)做出了濰坊市舒適度指數(shù)計(jì)算公式，并對指數(shù)進(jìn)行了分級。
[Abstract]:With the development of industrialization and the improvement of people's living standard, people pay more and more attention to the quality of life. Air pollution forecast is a basic work for real-time control of air pollution.
Weather changes not only affect the comfort of the human body, but also affect the human body's ability to resist diseases, making certain diseases worse or worse, especially some special weather, because of the drastic changes in meteorological factors, can cause some people to disease or aggravate the illness. To study the relationship between meteorological conditions and human health, especially with certain diseases. And make predictions, people can arrange their work and live according to their own circumstances.
The air pollution data used in this paper were provided by Weifang Environmental Monitoring Station from January 2004 to June 2006. The case data were provided by the inpatient department of Weifang People's Hospital from 1997 to 2006. The meteorological data were provided by Weifang Meteorological Observatory, including various climatic data since 1951.
It is found that PM_ (10) is the most important pollutant in Weifang City, 51.7% of the time is light pollution, and 5.2% of the time is moderate and severe pollution. The variation of the concentration was bimodal, with the highest in the morning and evening, which was caused by the combined effects of meteorological conditions and human activities.
Precipitation can significantly reduce atmospheric pollution, and PM_ (10) observations are very high in fog. Due to the adsorption of water droplets, the observed values of water-soluble pollutants, especially SO_2 and other substances, are too low to truly reflect the degree of atmospheric pollution at this time. The concentration of SO_2 and NO_2 began to decrease again when the wind speed exceeded 8 m/s, but the concentration of PM_ (10) continued to increase. The wind speed of 5 m/s was most favorable to the diffusion and dilution of PM_ (10).
Based on the correlation analysis of the forecasting object and the forecasting factor, the statistical forecasting equation is established by season and revised according to the potential forecasting, and the successful forecasting can be made.
Winter is the high-incidence period of influenza, long-term high temperature, drought and little rain, strong cold air activity, serious air pollution, is an important factor inducing influenza. Through the correlation analysis of influenza cases in the above meteorological factors, the prediction equation is established.
The influence of cold weather is an important meteorological condition to induce coronary heart disease. According to the temperature and pressure change of different periods, the forecast equation is established seasonally.
According to the climate characteristics and people's living habits of Weifang City, the formula of comfort index of Weifang City is worked out by using temperature, humidity and wind, which are the three most important factors affecting human comfort in different seasons, and the index is graded.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2007
【分類號】：R122;R188

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