【摘要】：全球氣候變暖和極端氣候事件頻發(fā)已成為人類面臨的重大環(huán)境問題之一,全球氣候變化及其引發(fā)的生態(tài)環(huán)境的改變,是傳染病發(fā)病率上升、流行區(qū)域擴大、流行季節(jié)延長的重要原因。在受氣候變化影響較大的傳染病中,尤以媒介傳播疾病最為突出。通過研究傳染病與氣象因素的關(guān)系,揭示各種傳染病的氣象流行病學(xué)規(guī)律,可為預(yù)防和控制傳染病提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。腎綜合征出血熱(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)是由漢坦病毒(HV)引起的多宿主自然疫源性疾病,也是我國重點防治的傳染病之一,其發(fā)生和流行與氣象因素密切相關(guān)。遵循流行病學(xué)的基本原理,運用氣象流行病學(xué)方法探索HFRS流行動態(tài)與氣象因素的定量關(guān)系,對進一步揭示HFRS的流行病學(xué)和生態(tài)學(xué)機制,預(yù)測其流行趨勢和制訂科學(xué)有效的預(yù)防措施,有重要的理論價值和實踐意義。 氣象流行病學(xué)是運用氣象學(xué)和流行病學(xué)的原理與方法研究有關(guān)氣象條件、氣候變化與疾病和健康的相互關(guān)系,探討影響疾病發(fā)生和流行的氣象學(xué)因素及其作用機制,針對各種氣候變化和氣象災(zāi)害科學(xué)地制定預(yù)防疾病發(fā)生和控制流行的措施提供依據(jù)的一門流行病學(xué)分支學(xué)科。氣象流行病學(xué)的研究方法包括橫向研究和縱向研究,但目前的研究多為縱向研究�？v向研究是利用某疫區(qū)的疫情和相關(guān)因素的時間序列資料進行病因探索,其重點是研究某些影響因素與疾病流行強度在時間尺度上的動態(tài)變化,揭示它們之間的作用艦律�，F(xiàn)有的關(guān)于HFRS與氣象因素關(guān)系的縱向研究的分析方法多局限于簡單相關(guān)、多元線性回歸、多元逐步判別等傳統(tǒng)的多元統(tǒng)計方法。這些方法存在以下不足:首先,只能定性地說明哪些氣象因素與發(fā)病率有關(guān),而不能定量地分析氣象因素的作用大小;其次,難以控制混雜因素,導(dǎo)致文獻報道結(jié)果不一致和難以比較。本研
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of global climate change and extreme climate events has become one of the major environmental problems facing mankind. Global climate change and the ecological environment change caused by it are the increasing incidence of infectious diseases and the expansion of epidemic areas. An important reason for the prolongation of the epidemic season. Among the major infectious diseases affected by climate change, vector-borne diseases are the most prominent. By studying the relationship between infectious diseases and meteorological factors, this paper reveals the laws of meteorological epidemiology of various infectious diseases, which can provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (hemorrhagic fever with renal) is a multi-host natural epidemic disease caused by Hantavirus (HV). It is also one of the most important infectious diseases in China. The occurrence and prevalence of HFRS are closely related to meteorological factors. Following the basic principles of epidemiology, the quantitative relationship between the epidemic dynamics of HFRS and meteorological factors was explored by means of meteorological epidemiology, and the epidemiological and ecological mechanisms of HFRS were further revealed. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to predict its epidemic trend and formulate scientific and effective preventive measures. Meteorological epidemiology is to use the principles and methods of meteorology and epidemiology to study meteorological conditions, the interrelationship between climate change and disease and health, and to explore the meteorological factors affecting the occurrence and prevalence of diseases and their mechanism of action. A branch of epidemiology that provides scientific basis for the prevention of diseases and the control of epidemics in view of climate change and meteorological disasters. The research methods of meteorological epidemiology include horizontal and longitudinal studies, but most of the current studies are longitudinal. Longitudinal study is based on the time series data of epidemic situation and related factors in an epidemic area. The emphasis of this study is to study the dynamic changes of some influencing factors and epidemic intensity in time scale, and to reveal the law of action between them. Most of the existing longitudinal analysis methods on the relationship between HFRS and meteorological factors are limited to simple correlation, multiple linear regression, multiple stepwise discrimination and other traditional multivariate statistical methods. These methods have the following shortcomings: first, they can only describe qualitatively which meteorological factors are related to morbidity, but not quantitatively analyze the magnitude of the effects of meteorological factors; secondly, it is difficult to control confounding factors. The results of literature reports are inconsistent and difficult to compare. This research institute
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2005
【分類號】：R181.3

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 葉劍雄;《內(nèi)經(jīng)》運氣理論研究[D];北京中醫(yī)藥大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：2186958