冬季氣候因素對鄱陽湖區(qū)洲灘螺情的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-06 12:25
【摘要】： 在我國南方,日本血吸蟲病是一種主要的寄生蟲病,嚴(yán)重影響著疫區(qū)人民生活,阻礙社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。釘螺是血吸蟲的唯一中間宿主,溫度是釘螺孳生的重要環(huán)境因素,其直接或間接地影響著釘螺的生長、發(fā)育、繁殖與分布。冬季溫度對釘螺能否生存起決定作用,我國血吸蟲病流行地區(qū)的1月份平均溫度一般都在0℃以上;在北緯33°15′以北釘螺不可能長期存活和延續(xù)后代的主要原因是北方冬季持續(xù)性低溫。適宜釘螺生活與繁殖的溫度為20℃-30℃,過冷或過熱均不利于其活動、繁殖甚至影響壽命。目前我國釘螺面積的94%以上分布于長江流域的湖沼地區(qū)。隨著全球氣候變暖,我國的氣候也在變暖,由于氣候變暖,南方也出現(xiàn)了暖冬,氣候變暖也造成了極端天氣事件的發(fā)生,比如2008年1月江西遭遇的雨雪冰凍天氣,因此了解冬季氣候因素對湖沼區(qū)螺情變化的影響具有重要意義。 與釘螺孳生相關(guān)更為密切的是地表溫度(land surface temperature,LST),隨著遙感技術(shù)的發(fā)展,其在提取地表溫度方面的應(yīng)用也越來越多,因而在了解氣溫對螺情變化的影響以及遙感提取地表溫度與氣溫之間的關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,可運用遙感技術(shù)來預(yù)測洲灘釘螺的孳生分布情況。 第一部分試點區(qū)概況 三個試點區(qū)分別是鄱陽湖中東岸的鄱陽縣三門村的窯背汊洲灘,鄱陽湖南岸的進(jìn)賢縣三里鄉(xiāng)濱山村楊家坪洲灘,鄱陽湖北岸的星子縣渚溪村的兩塊相連的洲灘:馬家灣和渚溪灘。馬家灣和渚溪灘2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率為3.46%、0.99%、2.25%及1.90%;鄱陽窯背汊2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率為1.68%、2.33%、0.92%及0.68%;進(jìn)賢2005、2006、2007及2008年的居民感染率為1.23%、0.18%、0.69%及0%。發(fā)現(xiàn)三個試點區(qū)在2007年、2008年未發(fā)現(xiàn)陽性螺�；盥菝芏仍�2005年、2008年有明顯的下降。 第二部分鄱陽湖區(qū)冬季氣候因素對螺情的影響 本研究收集三個試點區(qū)1998-2008年冬季12月～2月的氣象資料(氣溫和降雨)統(tǒng)計出相關(guān)的氣象指標(biāo):月降雨量,總降雨量(冬季三個月降雨量總和),冬季日最低氣溫低0℃的天數(shù),整個日冬季最低氣溫低于5.87℃的天數(shù),1月日平均氣溫低于0℃的天數(shù),月平均氣溫,月平均最低氣溫,月平均最高氣溫,月最低溫度,月最高溫度等,并將當(dāng)年氣象指標(biāo)與來年春季螺情進(jìn)行相關(guān)分析。在星子試點區(qū)經(jīng)相關(guān)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)活螺密度與冬季日最低溫度低于5.87℃的天數(shù)和冬季日最低溫度低于0℃的天數(shù)之間都成負(fù)相關(guān)�；盥菝芏扰c1月平均溫度之間為正相關(guān)。有螺框出現(xiàn)率與與冬季日最低溫度低于5.87℃的天數(shù)、冬季目最低溫度低于0℃的天數(shù)、1月日平均溫度低于0℃的天數(shù)之間均成負(fù)相關(guān),與12月平均溫度,1月平均溫度成正相關(guān);陽性螺密度和釘螺陽性率在鄱陽湖區(qū)緯度比較高的地方-星子與冬季降雨量成正相關(guān)。在鄱陽試點區(qū),活螺密度與12月最高溫度,1月平均溫度之間都成正相關(guān),有螺框出現(xiàn)率與12月最高溫度和1月平均溫度都成正相關(guān)。釘螺陽性率、陽性螺密度與2月最高溫度和2月平均溫度都成正相關(guān)關(guān)系。在進(jìn)賢試點區(qū),活螺密度與2月平均氣溫存在正相關(guān)。說明湖沼地區(qū)冬季低溫越低,來年春季螺的密度和有螺框出現(xiàn)率越低,2月平均氣溫越高,釘螺孳生繁殖活動加劇,隨著2月溫度升高,人畜草洲活動開始頻繁,導(dǎo)致陽性螺密度和釘螺陽性率升高。 第三部分探索利用MODIS地表溫度產(chǎn)品MOD11A2預(yù)測螺情的可能性的研究 下載NASA網(wǎng)站上免費的MODIS 8天地表溫度產(chǎn)品MOD11A2,經(jīng)過重投影,ENVI中計算,算出1月份平均地表溫度,由于星子試點區(qū)的螺情與1月平均氣溫成正相關(guān)關(guān)系,所以用星子試點區(qū)-查螺區(qū)域作為感興趣區(qū)域,對MODIS地表溫度產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行裁剪,提取星子試點區(qū)的1月平均地表溫度。經(jīng)分析獲得的1月平均地表溫度與星子試點區(qū)活螺密度之間也為正相關(guān)關(guān)系,且相關(guān)系數(shù)更高,為0.929,大于1月平均氣溫與星子試點區(qū)活螺密度之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)0.764。說明在地表溫度難以獲得的區(qū)域可以利用MOD11A2地表溫度產(chǎn)品來監(jiān)測預(yù)測釘螺孳生。
[Abstract]:Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease in southern China, which seriously affects people's life and hinders social and economic development. Oncomelania snails are the only intermediate hosts of Schistosoma, and temperature is an important environmental factor for the breeding of oncomelania, which directly or indirectly affects the growth, development, reproduction and distribution of Oncomelania snails. The average temperature in January in the area of schistosomiasis in China is generally above 0 degrees centigrade. The main reason for the non possible long-term survival and continuation of Oncomelania snails in the north latitude of 33 degrees 15 'is the continuous low temperature in the north in winter. The temperature of the life and reproduction of Oncomelania snails is 20 -30 C, which is not good for overcooling or overheating. At present, more than 94% of the area of Oncomelania in China is distributed in the lake and marshes of the Yangtze River Basin. With global warming, the climate in China is also warming. Because of the warming, the South also has warm winter, and the climate warming also caused the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as the Yu Xuebing in Jiangxi in January 2008. Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the influence of winter climate factors on snail changes in lakes and marshlands.
The surface temperature (land surface temperature, LST) is more closely related to the breeding of Oncomelania. With the development of remote sensing technology, more and more applications are used in the extraction of surface temperature. Therefore, remote sensing technology can be applied on the basis of understanding the influence of temperature on the change of snail and the relationship between surface temperature and temperature extraction by remote sensing. To predict the breeding distribution of Oncomelania Oncomelania.
The first part of the pilot area
The three pilot areas are the kilns beaches of the three villages in the Poyang County of the Central East Bank of Poyang Lake, the Yangjiaping beach in Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Yangjiaping, and the beaches of Zhu Xi village in Xingzi County, the North Bank of Poyang Lake: the MMA Bay and Zhu Xi beach. The 200520062007 and 2008 residents of Ma Jia Wan and Zhu Xi Tan are 3.46%, 0 .99%, 2.25% and 1.90%; the infection rate of residents in Poyang kiln back branch in 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.68%, 2.33%, 0.92% and 0.68%. The infection rate of residents in Jinxian 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.23%, 0.18%, 0.69% and 0%. found that there were no positive snail in 2007 and 2008. The density of living snail was obviously decreased in 2005 and 2008.
The second part is the influence of winter climate factors on snail situation in Poyang Lake district.
In this study, the meteorological data (temperature and rainfall) from December to February of three pilot areas were collected. The monthly rainfall, the total rainfall (the total rainfall of three months in winter), the lowest temperature of 0 centigrade in winter, the lowest temperature of the whole day in winter were below 5.87 degrees Celsius, and the average daily temperature in January was lower than 0 centigrade. The number of days, the average monthly temperature, the monthly mean minimum temperature, the maximum monthly temperature, the minimum temperature of the month, the maximum temperature of the month and so on, and the correlation analysis between the meteorological indexes and the spring snails in the coming year were carried out. The number of the living snail density and the winter day's lowest temperature below 5.87 degrees centigrade and the lowest temperature of winter were found to be lower than 0 in the pilot area of the stars. There is a negative correlation between the number of Celsius days and the average temperature of the living snail and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame and the lowest temperature of the winter day are below 5.87 degrees, the lowest temperature in winter is lower than the number of 0 degrees, and the average daily temperature in January is lower than the number of days at 0 degrees C, and it is in positive phase with the average temperature in December and the average January temperature. The density of positive snail and the positive rate of Oncomelania snails were positively related to the winter rainfall in the high latitude of Poyang Lake district. In the pilot area of Poyang, the density of living snail was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. Positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. The density of the snail has a positive correlation with the highest temperature in February and the average temperature in February. In the pilot area of Jinxian, the density of living snail and the average temperature in February have a positive correlation. It shows that the lower the low temperature in winter in the lake area, the lower the density and the emergence of the snails in the spring, the higher the average temperature in February, the increase of the breeding activities of oncomelania, with the temperature rising in February. The activity of human sow Chau began to increase frequently, resulting in higher density of positive snail and positive rate of Oncomelania hupensis.
The third part is to explore the possibility of predicting snail by using MODIS land surface temperature product MOD11A2.
Download the free MODIS 8 world table temperature product MOD11A2 on the NASA site. After re projection and ENVI calculation, the average surface temperature in January is calculated. Because the snails in the pilot area of Xingzi are positively related to the average temperature in January, we cut the surface temperature products of MODIS with the pilot area of the Star son as a sense of interest area, and cut out the surface temperature products of the MODIS. The average surface temperature of January in the pilot area of the star sub region. The average surface temperature obtained in January is also positively correlated with the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed, and the correlation coefficient is higher, 0.929, and the correlation coefficient 0.764. between the average temperature in January and the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed shows that the area where the surface temperature is difficult to obtain can be found. Using MOD11A2 land surface temperature products to monitor snail breeding.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國疾病預(yù)防控制中心
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：R184
本文編號：2167726
[Abstract]:Schistosomiasis japonica is a major parasitic disease in southern China, which seriously affects people's life and hinders social and economic development. Oncomelania snails are the only intermediate hosts of Schistosoma, and temperature is an important environmental factor for the breeding of oncomelania, which directly or indirectly affects the growth, development, reproduction and distribution of Oncomelania snails. The average temperature in January in the area of schistosomiasis in China is generally above 0 degrees centigrade. The main reason for the non possible long-term survival and continuation of Oncomelania snails in the north latitude of 33 degrees 15 'is the continuous low temperature in the north in winter. The temperature of the life and reproduction of Oncomelania snails is 20 -30 C, which is not good for overcooling or overheating. At present, more than 94% of the area of Oncomelania in China is distributed in the lake and marshes of the Yangtze River Basin. With global warming, the climate in China is also warming. Because of the warming, the South also has warm winter, and the climate warming also caused the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as the Yu Xuebing in Jiangxi in January 2008. Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the influence of winter climate factors on snail changes in lakes and marshlands.
The surface temperature (land surface temperature, LST) is more closely related to the breeding of Oncomelania. With the development of remote sensing technology, more and more applications are used in the extraction of surface temperature. Therefore, remote sensing technology can be applied on the basis of understanding the influence of temperature on the change of snail and the relationship between surface temperature and temperature extraction by remote sensing. To predict the breeding distribution of Oncomelania Oncomelania.
The first part of the pilot area
The three pilot areas are the kilns beaches of the three villages in the Poyang County of the Central East Bank of Poyang Lake, the Yangjiaping beach in Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Jinxian County, Yangjiaping, and the beaches of Zhu Xi village in Xingzi County, the North Bank of Poyang Lake: the MMA Bay and Zhu Xi beach. The 200520062007 and 2008 residents of Ma Jia Wan and Zhu Xi Tan are 3.46%, 0 .99%, 2.25% and 1.90%; the infection rate of residents in Poyang kiln back branch in 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.68%, 2.33%, 0.92% and 0.68%. The infection rate of residents in Jinxian 200520062007 and 2008 was 1.23%, 0.18%, 0.69% and 0%. found that there were no positive snail in 2007 and 2008. The density of living snail was obviously decreased in 2005 and 2008.
The second part is the influence of winter climate factors on snail situation in Poyang Lake district.
In this study, the meteorological data (temperature and rainfall) from December to February of three pilot areas were collected. The monthly rainfall, the total rainfall (the total rainfall of three months in winter), the lowest temperature of 0 centigrade in winter, the lowest temperature of the whole day in winter were below 5.87 degrees Celsius, and the average daily temperature in January was lower than 0 centigrade. The number of days, the average monthly temperature, the monthly mean minimum temperature, the maximum monthly temperature, the minimum temperature of the month, the maximum temperature of the month and so on, and the correlation analysis between the meteorological indexes and the spring snails in the coming year were carried out. The number of the living snail density and the winter day's lowest temperature below 5.87 degrees centigrade and the lowest temperature of winter were found to be lower than 0 in the pilot area of the stars. There is a negative correlation between the number of Celsius days and the average temperature of the living snail and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame and the lowest temperature of the winter day are below 5.87 degrees, the lowest temperature in winter is lower than the number of 0 degrees, and the average daily temperature in January is lower than the number of days at 0 degrees C, and it is in positive phase with the average temperature in December and the average January temperature. The density of positive snail and the positive rate of Oncomelania snails were positively related to the winter rainfall in the high latitude of Poyang Lake district. In the pilot area of Poyang, the density of living snail was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The emergence rate of the spiral frame was positively correlated with the highest temperature in December and the average temperature in January. The positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. Positive rate of Oncomelania snails was positive. The density of the snail has a positive correlation with the highest temperature in February and the average temperature in February. In the pilot area of Jinxian, the density of living snail and the average temperature in February have a positive correlation. It shows that the lower the low temperature in winter in the lake area, the lower the density and the emergence of the snails in the spring, the higher the average temperature in February, the increase of the breeding activities of oncomelania, with the temperature rising in February. The activity of human sow Chau began to increase frequently, resulting in higher density of positive snail and positive rate of Oncomelania hupensis.
The third part is to explore the possibility of predicting snail by using MODIS land surface temperature product MOD11A2.
Download the free MODIS 8 world table temperature product MOD11A2 on the NASA site. After re projection and ENVI calculation, the average surface temperature in January is calculated. Because the snails in the pilot area of Xingzi are positively related to the average temperature in January, we cut the surface temperature products of MODIS with the pilot area of the Star son as a sense of interest area, and cut out the surface temperature products of the MODIS. The average surface temperature of January in the pilot area of the star sub region. The average surface temperature obtained in January is also positively correlated with the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed, and the correlation coefficient is higher, 0.929, and the correlation coefficient 0.764. between the average temperature in January and the density of the living snail in the pilot area of the star seed shows that the area where the surface temperature is difficult to obtain can be found. Using MOD11A2 land surface temperature products to monitor snail breeding.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國疾病預(yù)防控制中心
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類號】：R184
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