本文選題：鉤體病 + 描述性分析��； 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 目的：了解湖南省鉤端螺旋體病(Leptospirosis,簡稱鉤體病)的三間分布規(guī)律及鉤體病主要傳播宿主(鼠類)在不同時(shí)間、地區(qū)內(nèi)密度、種類和帶毒率變化情況；采用空間分析方法,揭示鉤體病的空間分布特點(diǎn)探討鉤體病的時(shí)空聚集性,為湖南省以后的鉤端螺旋體病防治提供新的研究手段和依據(jù)。 方法：利用Excel軟件制作圖、表,對湖南省2003-2008年鉤體病疫情資料及鼠類監(jiān)測資料進(jìn)行描述,并采用卡方檢驗(yàn)分析其差異；利用克里金插值分析(Kriging Interpolation Analysis),形成鉤體病分布預(yù)測地圖和預(yù)測誤差地圖；運(yùn)用掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)量分析,得出鉤體病聚類的時(shí)間、地區(qū)以及不同年份間各縣域的發(fā)病相對危險(xiǎn)度,并實(shí)現(xiàn)可視化。 結(jié)果：研究期間湖南省鉤體病發(fā)病率和死亡率均總體表現(xiàn)為下降趨勢,但2007年有所反彈。2003年到2008年湖南共報(bào)告鉤體病例703例,平均發(fā)病率為0.180/10萬。死亡41例,平均死亡率為0.011/10萬,病死率為5.832/10萬。該病具有明顯的季節(jié)性特征,雖然不同年份間發(fā)病高峰期有所提前和延后,但基本集中于6-10月間,一般為單峰分布,但個(gè)別年份表現(xiàn)為雙峰分布。病例報(bào)告以農(nóng)業(yè)勞動者為主,其次是學(xué)生,年齡集中于10-59歲之間,男性多于女性；宿主動物流行病學(xué)調(diào)查顯示,鼠密度及鼠帶菌率最高的年份為2007年,鼠密度最高的監(jiān)測點(diǎn)為沅江市,鼠帶菌率最高的監(jiān)測點(diǎn)為雙峰縣。不同年份間,不同監(jiān)測點(diǎn)間鼠密度及鼠帶菌率差異有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.0001)。湖南省鉤體鼠類優(yōu)勢鼠種為黑線姬鼠,占總捕獲數(shù)的45.85%,其次為小家鼠和褐家鼠,分別為25.69%,22.32%。不同年份間,不同監(jiān)測點(diǎn)、不同年份間鼠種構(gòu)成差異有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.0001)；克里金插值數(shù)據(jù)探索分析結(jié)果表明,采用基于球狀模型的二階析取克里金插值法得出的平均發(fā)病率地圖精度最高,且根據(jù)球狀模型公式可知在變程123994范圍內(nèi),湖南省鉤體病平均發(fā)病率具有中度自相關(guān)性,其中由空間自相關(guān)引起的變異占總變異的49.97%。時(shí)空掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)分析結(jié)果揭示了在研究期間內(nèi)湖南省鉤體病的發(fā)病不是隨機(jī)性分布,存在三個(gè)有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義的時(shí)空聚類區(qū)(P0.00001)。湖南省鉤體病預(yù)測分布圖及掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)量分析結(jié)果均表明：鉤體病高發(fā)區(qū)域主要位于中東部丘陵地帶、西北和西南部山區(qū),其中各年度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地圖表現(xiàn)為：整體上高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布地區(qū)與低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分布地區(qū)相對固定,某些地區(qū)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)域與低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)域相間分布,高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)波及地區(qū)年度間分布不均勻。 結(jié)論：湖南省2003-2008年鉤體病疫情總體表現(xiàn)為下降趨勢,鉤體病發(fā)病男性多于女性,以農(nóng)民為主的青壯年為多,呈現(xiàn)明顯的季節(jié)性。不同時(shí)間,不同監(jiān)測點(diǎn)間鼠密度,優(yōu)勢鼠種分布及帶菌率均不同。湖南省鉤體病并非隨機(jī)分布,存在時(shí)空聚集性,其高發(fā)區(qū)域主要位于中東部丘陵地帶、西北和西南部山區(qū)。
[Abstract]:Objective: to study the distribution of Leptospirosis (Leptospirosis) in Hunan Province, and the changes of density, species and viral rate of Leptospirosis, the main host of leptospirosis (rodent) in different time and region. To reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of leptospirosis and to explore the space-time aggregation of leptospirosis, and to provide a new research method and basis for the prevention and control of leptospirosis in Hunan Province. Methods: the data of epidemic situation of leptospirosis and the surveillance data of rodents in Hunan Province from 2003 to 2008 were described by using Excel software, and the differences were analyzed by chi-square test. The Kriging Interpolation Analysis was used to form the prediction map and prediction error map of Leptospira disease distribution, and the relative risk of Leptospira disease clustering was obtained by scanning statistical analysis. And realize visualization. Results: the incidence rate and mortality rate of leptospirosis in Hunan Province decreased in general, but rebounded in 2007. From 2003 to 2008, 703 cases of leptospirosis were reported in Hunan Province, with an average incidence of 0.180 / 100 000. There were 41 deaths, with an average mortality rate of 0.011 / 100, 000 and a mortality rate of 58,832 / 100, 000. Although the peak period of the disease was earlier and delayed in different years, it was mainly concentrated in the period of June to October, which was a single peak distribution, but a double peak distribution in a few years. Case reports were mainly agricultural workers, followed by students, aged between 10 and 59 years, with more males than females. Epidemiological surveys of host animals showed that the highest rodent density and rat carrying rate were in 2007. The highest density of mice is Yuanjiang City, and the highest rate of mice carrying bacteria is Shuangfeng County. There were significant differences in rat density and rat carrying rate among different monitoring sites in different years (P 0.0001). The dominant species of Leptospira rodents in Hunan Province were Apodemus agrarius, which accounted for 45.85% of the total captured number, followed by mice and Rattus norvegicus, which were 25.699.22. 32cm, respectively. There were significant differences in the composition of rodent species between different years, different monitoring points and different years, and the results of Kriging interpolation data analysis showed that, The map accuracy of the mean incidence rate obtained by the second order precipitation Kriging interpolation method based on the spherical model is the highest, and according to the spherical model formula, the average incidence of leptospirosis in Hunan Province has moderate autocorrelation in the range of variable range 123994. The variation caused by spatial autocorrelation accounted for 49.97% of the total variation. The statistical analysis of space-time scanning revealed that the incidence of leptospirosis in Hunan Province was not random distribution during the study period, and there were three statistically significant spatial and temporal clustering regions (P0.00001). The predication map of leptospirosis in Hunan Province and the analysis of scanning statistics showed that the high incidence area of leptospirosis was mainly located in the hilly region of the central and eastern part, northwest and southwest mountain areas. The annual risk map shows that the high risk distribution area and the low risk distribution area are relatively fixed on the whole, the high risk area and the low risk area are distributed in some areas, and the high risk area and the low risk area are not evenly distributed in each year. Conclusion: the epidemic situation of leptospirosis in Hunan Province from 2003 to 2008 showed a downward trend. The incidence of leptospirosis in men was more than that in women. The density of rodents, the distribution of dominant rodent species and the rate of carrying bacteria were different at different time and different monitoring points. Leptospirosis is not a random distribution in Hunan Province, and it has spatio-temporal aggregation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：R181.3;R514.4

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

1 李建濤;黃飛;陳偉;成詩明;;空間插值技術(shù)在流行病學(xué)中的應(yīng)用[J];中國防癆雜志;2012年12期

2 鄧特;黃勇;顧菁;于石成;肖革新;郝元濤;;空間分析中空間自相關(guān)性的診斷[J];中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì);2013年03期

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本文編號：2040555