本文選題：傳染病 + 流行趨勢(shì)　； 參考：《山西醫(yī)科大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】： 目的隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步,人們生活條件的改善和計(jì)劃免疫的實(shí)施,許多傳染病得到了有效的控制,但是近年來一些傳染病如病毒性肝炎、肺結(jié)核等死灰復(fù)燃,開始回升。了解這些疾病的發(fā)病趨勢(shì),從理論上探索其流行規(guī)律,預(yù)測(cè)其發(fā)生發(fā)展的變化趨勢(shì),然后有的放矢的采取相應(yīng)的干預(yù)措施,具有重要的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)際意義。本文嘗試?yán)肁RIMA模型建立痢疾發(fā)病的動(dòng)態(tài)模型,探討ARIMA模型在傳染病發(fā)病預(yù)測(cè)方面的應(yīng)用,為制定科學(xué)、有效的防治措施提供理論依據(jù)。 方法收集晉城煤業(yè)集團(tuán)1998-2007年法定傳染病疫情報(bào)告表和人口資料,描述1998-2007年各種法定傳染病的發(fā)病水平及病種分布情況,全面了解不同法定傳染病的動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì)。以痢疾為例,對(duì)痢疾的月發(fā)病數(shù)建立ARIMA模型,對(duì)晉城煤業(yè)集團(tuán)痢疾發(fā)病水平進(jìn)行模擬與評(píng)價(jià)。 結(jié)果1998-2007年共報(bào)告法定傳染病2898例,年平均發(fā)病率為442.83／10萬。無甲類傳染病報(bào)告,乙類和丙類共報(bào)告18種。在過去的10年中,法定傳染病報(bào)告有所增加,2000和2004年出現(xiàn)兩個(gè)高峰,并在2007年達(dá)到最高發(fā)病率1024.59／10萬。傳染病位次也發(fā)生明顯變化,蟲媒傳播傳染病降低,腸道傳染病和血源及性傳播疾病上升明顯。前三位的傳染病為病毒性肝炎、肺結(jié)核和痢疾。經(jīng)痢疾發(fā)病的時(shí)間序列資料建立的ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型擬合效果較好,能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)痢疾發(fā)病趨勢(shì)。 結(jié)論晉煤集團(tuán)法定傳染病疫情形勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻,必須加強(qiáng)各種傳染病的防治工作。乙肝、肺結(jié)核、腸道傳染病是今后防治的重點(diǎn)。應(yīng)用ARIMA模型對(duì)痢疾月發(fā)病數(shù)所建的模型能準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)痢疾的發(fā)病趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Objective with the progress of science and technology, the improvement of people's living conditions and the implementation of planned immunization, many infectious diseases have been effectively controlled, but in recent years, some infectious diseases, such as viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and so on, began to rise again. It is of great theoretical value and practical significance to understand the incidence trend of these diseases, to explore their epidemic law theoretically, to predict the changing trend of their occurrence and development, and then to take corresponding intervention measures. This paper attempts to establish a dynamic model of dysentery by using ARIMA model, and to discuss the application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of infectious diseases, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific and effective prevention and treatment measures. Methods to collect the report form and population data of epidemic situation of statutory infectious diseases in Jincheng Coal Industry Group from 1998 to 2007, to describe the incidence level and distribution of various kinds of statutory infectious diseases from 1998 to 2007, and to understand the dynamic change trend of different legal infectious diseases in an all-round way. Taking dysentery as an example, the ARIMA model was established to simulate and evaluate the incidence level of dysentery in Jincheng Coal Industry Group. Results A total of 2898 cases of statutory infectious diseases were reported from 1998 to 2007, with an average annual incidence of 442.83 / 100 000. No A infectious diseases were reported, 18 species were reported in Group B and Group C. Over the past 10 years, there has been an increase in the number of notifiable infectious diseases reported in 2000 and 2004, reaching a peak of 1,0245.9 per 100,000 in 2007. The rank of infectious diseases also changed obviously, the number of insect-borne infectious diseases decreased, and that of intestinal infectious diseases and blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases increased significantly. The top three infectious diseases are viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and dysentery. According to the time series data of dysentery, the fitting effect of Arima model was good, and it could predict the incidence trend of dysentery accurately. Conclusion the epidemic situation of legal infectious diseases in Jinmei Group is severe, and the prevention and control of various infectious diseases must be strengthened. Hepatitis B, tuberculosis, intestinal infectious diseases are the focus of prevention and treatment in the future. The ARIMA model can accurately predict the incidence trend of dysentery.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西醫(yī)科大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類號(hào)】：R181.8

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本文編號(hào)：1960196