本文選題：火災傷害 + 流行特征�。� 參考：《暨南大學》2005年碩士論文

【摘要】：目的:分析我國火災傷害的流行特征及相關因素,揭示火災傷害發(fā)生的危險因素,為預防和控制火災傷害提供科學依據。 方法:采用回顧性流行病學研究方法,收集反映我國火災情況及社會經濟、消防和衛(wèi)生資源狀況的相關數(shù)據進行統(tǒng)計分析。 結果: 1.火災發(fā)生的總體趨勢:通過有序樣品聚類分析,可將我國建國54年的火災發(fā)生情況分為5個階段:第一階段為1950～1954年;第二階段為1955～1963年;第三階段為1964～1979年;第四階段為1980～1996年;第五階段為1997～2003年。每一階段的火災情況受到社會經濟因素的影響�？傮w上我國火災傷害的形勢隨著國民經濟發(fā)展趨于嚴重。 2.火災發(fā)生的時間分布特征:對我國火災發(fā)生的時間進行圓形分布分析,顯示火災發(fā)生在時間上具有規(guī)律性。月分布和晝時分布上有明顯的集中趨勢:火災以2月份、下午18時左右高發(fā),特大和重大火災事故多發(fā)生在深夜0～4:00。 3.全國和各地火災原因:對全國火災直接原因進行統(tǒng)計分析,表明火災事故80%以上由人為因素造成,主要是用火不慎(27.91%)和電氣(23.92%)原因。以各地區(qū)的火災原因構成比進行聚類分析,將我國31個省、自治區(qū)和直轄市分為3類,各類地區(qū)的火災原因構成與經濟生產狀況相關:經濟較發(fā)達,生產經營較活躍的地區(qū)火災原因以電氣(31.12%)為主;地處偏遠,經濟和生產方式較落后的地區(qū)火災原因以用火不慎(35.19%)為主。 4.火災發(fā)生的地域分布特征:以各地區(qū)的4大火災指標數(shù)據對火災情況進行聚類分析,將我國27個省、自治區(qū)分為5類,各類地區(qū)的火災情況與社會經濟狀況呈對應關系:經濟越發(fā)達的地區(qū),火災越高發(fā),火災經濟損失越嚴重;經濟落后的地區(qū),火災發(fā)生頻率和經濟損失均較小,但火災傷亡率高。 5.火災與社會經濟因素關系:聯(lián)合應用Pearson相關和因子分析、逐步回歸對我國火災頻數(shù)與社會經濟因素的關系進行分析,顯示我國火災形勢與社會經濟呈正相關,回歸方程為:(?)=-4055.749+0.11 1X_1+0.988X_2+0.0083X_3+18.554X_4+12.107X_5+1.907X_6即人
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the epidemic characteristics and related factors of fire injury in China, to reveal the risk factors of fire injury, and to provide scientific basis for preventing and controlling fire injury. Methods: retrospective epidemiological study was used to collect and analyze the relevant data reflecting the fire situation, social economy, fire fighting and health resources in China. Results: 1. The general trend of fire occurrence: through cluster analysis of ordered samples, the fire occurrence in 54 years of our country can be divided into five stages: the first stage is 1950- 1954, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996. The fifth stage is from 1997 to 2003. Each stage of the fire situation is affected by socio-economic factors. As a whole, the situation of fire injury in our country tends to be serious with the development of national economy. 2. The characteristics of fire time distribution: the circular distribution analysis of fire time in China shows that the fire occurs regularly in time. The monthly distribution and the daytime distribution showed an obvious trend of concentration: the fire occurred in February, about 18:00 in the afternoon, and most of the major and serious fire accidents occurred at 0: 00 in the night. 3. National and local fire causes: the direct causes of fire in China are statistically analyzed. The results show that more than 80% of fire accidents are caused by human factors, mainly caused by fire carelessness (27.91) and electrical accidents (23.92). Based on cluster analysis of fire cause composition ratio in various regions, 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China are divided into 3 categories. The fire cause composition in various regions is related to the economic production situation: the economy is relatively developed. The main causes of fire in the areas where production and operation are active are electric power 31.12m), and those in remote areas with backward economy and production mode are mainly caused by fire carelessness (35.1919). 4. The regional distribution characteristics of fire occurrence: the fire situation is analyzed by cluster analysis based on the four fire index data in each region. The 27 provinces and autonomous regions of China are divided into 5 categories. The relationship between the fire situation and the social and economic situation in various regions is as follows: the more developed the economy, the higher the fire, the more serious the economic loss of fire, the less the frequency of fire and the economic loss are in the economically backward areas. But the casualty rate is high. 5. The relationship between fire and social economic factors: by using Pearson correlation and factor analysis, the relationship between fire frequency and social economic factors in China is analyzed step by step, which shows that the fire situation in China is positively related to social economy. The regression equation is: 1 055. 749 0. 11 1X_1 0.988X_2 0.0083X_3 18.554X_4 12.107X_5 1.907X_6.
【學位授予單位】：暨南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2005
【分類號】：R181.3

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