本文選題：火災(zāi)傷害 + 流行特征　； 參考：《暨南大學(xué)》2005年碩士論文

【摘要】：目的:分析我國(guó)火災(zāi)傷害的流行特征及相關(guān)因素,揭示火災(zāi)傷害發(fā)生的危險(xiǎn)因素,為預(yù)防和控制火災(zāi)傷害提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 方法:采用回顧性流行病學(xué)研究方法,收集反映我國(guó)火災(zāi)情況及社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、消防和衛(wèi)生資源狀況的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。 結(jié)果: 1.火災(zāi)發(fā)生的總體趨勢(shì):通過有序樣品聚類分析,可將我國(guó)建國(guó)54年的火災(zāi)發(fā)生情況分為5個(gè)階段:第一階段為1950～1954年;第二階段為1955～1963年;第三階段為1964～1979年;第四階段為1980～1996年;第五階段為1997～2003年。每一階段的火災(zāi)情況受到社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響�？傮w上我國(guó)火災(zāi)傷害的形勢(shì)隨著國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨于嚴(yán)重。 2.火災(zāi)發(fā)生的時(shí)間分布特征:對(duì)我國(guó)火災(zāi)發(fā)生的時(shí)間進(jìn)行圓形分布分析,顯示火災(zāi)發(fā)生在時(shí)間上具有規(guī)律性。月分布和晝時(shí)分布上有明顯的集中趨勢(shì):火災(zāi)以2月份、下午18時(shí)左右高發(fā),特大和重大火災(zāi)事故多發(fā)生在深夜0～4:00。 3.全國(guó)和各地火災(zāi)原因:對(duì)全國(guó)火災(zāi)直接原因進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,表明火災(zāi)事故80%以上由人為因素造成,主要是用火不慎(27.91%)和電氣(23.92%)原因。以各地區(qū)的火災(zāi)原因構(gòu)成比進(jìn)行聚類分析,將我國(guó)31個(gè)省、自治區(qū)和直轄市分為3類,各類地區(qū)的火災(zāi)原因構(gòu)成與經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)狀況相關(guān):經(jīng)濟(jì)較發(fā)達(dá),生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)較活躍的地區(qū)火災(zāi)原因以電氣(31.12%)為主;地處偏遠(yuǎn),經(jīng)濟(jì)和生產(chǎn)方式較落后的地區(qū)火災(zāi)原因以用火不慎(35.19%)為主。 4.火災(zāi)發(fā)生的地域分布特征:以各地區(qū)的4大火災(zāi)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)火災(zāi)情況進(jìn)行聚類分析,將我國(guó)27個(gè)省、自治區(qū)分為5類,各類地區(qū)的火災(zāi)情況與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況呈對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系:經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)達(dá)的地區(qū),火災(zāi)越高發(fā),火災(zāi)經(jīng)濟(jì)損失越嚴(yán)重;經(jīng)濟(jì)落后的地區(qū),火災(zāi)發(fā)生頻率和經(jīng)濟(jì)損失均較小,但火災(zāi)傷亡率高。 5.火災(zāi)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素關(guān)系:聯(lián)合應(yīng)用Pearson相關(guān)和因子分析、逐步回歸對(duì)我國(guó)火災(zāi)頻數(shù)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,顯示我國(guó)火災(zāi)形勢(shì)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)呈正相關(guān),回歸方程為:(?)=-4055.749+0.11 1X_1+0.988X_2+0.0083X_3+18.554X_4+12.107X_5+1.907X_6即人
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the epidemic characteristics and related factors of fire injury in China, to reveal the risk factors of fire injury, and to provide scientific basis for preventing and controlling fire injury. Methods: retrospective epidemiological study was used to collect and analyze the relevant data reflecting the fire situation, social economy, fire fighting and health resources in China. Results: 1. The general trend of fire occurrence: through cluster analysis of ordered samples, the fire occurrence in 54 years of our country can be divided into five stages: the first stage is 1950- 1954, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996, the second stage is 1955-1963, the third stage is 1964-1979, the fourth stage is 1980-1996. The fifth stage is from 1997 to 2003. Each stage of the fire situation is affected by socio-economic factors. As a whole, the situation of fire injury in our country tends to be serious with the development of national economy. 2. The characteristics of fire time distribution: the circular distribution analysis of fire time in China shows that the fire occurs regularly in time. The monthly distribution and the daytime distribution showed an obvious trend of concentration: the fire occurred in February, about 18:00 in the afternoon, and most of the major and serious fire accidents occurred at 0: 00 in the night. 3. National and local fire causes: the direct causes of fire in China are statistically analyzed. The results show that more than 80% of fire accidents are caused by human factors, mainly caused by fire carelessness (27.91) and electrical accidents (23.92). Based on cluster analysis of fire cause composition ratio in various regions, 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China are divided into 3 categories. The fire cause composition in various regions is related to the economic production situation: the economy is relatively developed. The main causes of fire in the areas where production and operation are active are electric power 31.12m), and those in remote areas with backward economy and production mode are mainly caused by fire carelessness (35.1919). 4. The regional distribution characteristics of fire occurrence: the fire situation is analyzed by cluster analysis based on the four fire index data in each region. The 27 provinces and autonomous regions of China are divided into 5 categories. The relationship between the fire situation and the social and economic situation in various regions is as follows: the more developed the economy, the higher the fire, the more serious the economic loss of fire, the less the frequency of fire and the economic loss are in the economically backward areas. But the casualty rate is high. 5. The relationship between fire and social economic factors: by using Pearson correlation and factor analysis, the relationship between fire frequency and social economic factors in China is analyzed step by step, which shows that the fire situation in China is positively related to social economy. The regression equation is: 1 055. 749 0. 11 1X_1 0.988X_2 0.0083X_3 18.554X_4 12.107X_5 1.907X_6.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2005
【分類號(hào)】：R181.3

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