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  本文選題：傳染病自動預(yù)警信息系統(tǒng) + 流行標準��； 參考：《中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計》2017年02期

【摘要】：目的通過納入"流行標準"備選模型,探討各模型對不同傳染病類型預(yù)警閾值設(shè)定的適用性,進而優(yōu)選出各傳染病的適宜預(yù)警閾值,改善預(yù)警效果。方法按照控制圖預(yù)警模型原理,分別計算各重點傳染病2014年周病例數(shù)指定的12個百分位數(shù),然后分別應(yīng)用備選"流行標準"對各重點傳染病2014年相應(yīng)周的疫情進行預(yù)警,通過比較備選模型和控制圖預(yù)警模型預(yù)警結(jié)果,優(yōu)選出預(yù)警閾值,然后依據(jù)2015年傳染病聚集性疫情的實際發(fā)生情況驗證預(yù)警界值預(yù)警效果。結(jié)果納入松江區(qū)3種重點傳染病,流行性腮腺炎整體疫情呈下降趨勢,定為"TYPE A",C2、累積和控制圖(CUSUM)和季節(jié)趨勢模型(SM)推薦P_(50),"μ+2σ"推薦P_(80);流行性感冒整體疫情平穩(wěn),定為"TYPE B",C2、CUSUM和SM推薦P_(40),"μ+2σ"推薦P_(75);猩紅熱整體疫情呈上升趨勢,為"TYPE C",C2和SM推薦P_(90),CUSUM推薦P75,"μ+2σ"推薦P_(80)。結(jié)論 C2、CUSUM和SM適合"TYPE A"型傳染病,推薦預(yù)警閾值低,結(jié)果保守;4種模型均適合"TYPE B"型傳染病,但μ+2σ的預(yù)警的成本效益好;4種模型也均適合"TYPE C"型傳染病,但傾向于推薦大的預(yù)警閾值,建議根據(jù)傳染病社會影響和現(xiàn)有防治水平對預(yù)警閾值進行適當調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the applicability of each model in setting early warning threshold for different infectious diseases by incorporating the "epidemic criteria" model, and then to select the appropriate early warning threshold for each infectious disease and improve the early warning effect. Methods according to the principle of early warning model of control chart, 12 percentiles of the number of cases of each major infectious disease in 2014 were calculated, and then the epidemic situation of each key infectious disease in the corresponding week of 2014 was predicted by using the alternative "epidemic criteria", respectively. By comparing the early warning results of the alternative model and the control chart early warning model, the early warning threshold was selected, and then the early warning effect was verified according to the actual occurrence of infectious disease agglomeration in 2015. Results the overall epidemic situation of mumps showed a downward trend in three major infectious diseases in Songjiang District. It was designated as "TYPE A" C2, CUSUM (cumulative and control chart) and SMC (seasonal trend model), and "渭 2 蟽" recommended Past80, and the overall epidemic situation of influenza was stable. "TYPE B" C2CUSUM and SM, "渭 2 蟽", "渭 2 蟽" and "渭 2 蟽", respectively, showed an upward trend in the overall epidemic situation of scarlet fever, and recommended P75 for "TYPE C" and "渭 2 蟽" for "P75" and "渭 2 蟽" for "TYPE C" and SM, respectively. Conclusion C2CUSUM and SM are suitable for "TYPE A" infectious diseases, and the recommended early warning threshold is low. The results show that the four conservative models are suitable for "TYPE B" infectious diseases, but the four models of 渭 2 蟽 early warning are also suitable for "TYPE C" infectious diseases. However, it tends to recommend a large threshold of early warning, and it is suggested that the threshold should be adjusted according to the social impact of infectious diseases and the current level of prevention and treatment.
【作者單位】： 復旦大學公共衛(wèi)生學院;松江區(qū)疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：公共衛(wèi)生安全教育部重點實驗室開放基金(GW2015-1)
【分類號】：R181

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