本文選題：腎綜合征出血熱 + 時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2006年碩士論文

【摘要】：腎綜合征出血熱是一種自然疫源性疾病，在歐亞大陸許多國(guó)家流行。其中，中國(guó)HFRS的發(fā)病人數(shù)約占世界總發(fā)病數(shù)的90％以上，是嚴(yán)重危害我國(guó)居民健康的重要傳染病。研究表明，在中國(guó)流行的HFRS病毒株主要為漢坦病毒，宿主動(dòng)物以黑線姬鼠和褐家鼠為主。目前，雖已基本弄清了我國(guó)HFRS的流行特征，并開展了疫苗免疫和滅鼠等綜合預(yù)防措施，但HFRS仍處于流行狀態(tài)，某些地區(qū)(如山東省)還時(shí)有暴發(fā)流行，新的疫區(qū)不斷出現(xiàn)，而且疫區(qū)類型也在發(fā)生演變。因此，有必要進(jìn)一步研究HFRS的時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)變化以及疫區(qū)類型的演變規(guī)律，以便為制定切實(shí)可行的防制措施提供理論依據(jù)。鑒于莒南縣是山東省野鼠型HFRS的原發(fā)疫源地和高發(fā)病區(qū)，也是我國(guó)的HFRS監(jiān)測(cè)點(diǎn)之一，所以在研究山東省HFRS時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)變化以及疫區(qū)類型的演變時(shí)，莒南縣具有一定的代表性。本研究利用莒南縣1975年9月1日～2004年8月31日的HFRS發(fā)病資料，應(yīng)用疾病空間分布概率模型、趨勢(shì)面分析、疾病空間變異函數(shù)和樣條函數(shù)插值等方法，研究莒南縣以自然村為單位的HFRS的空間分布及其時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)變化過(guò)程，并結(jié)合鼠情監(jiān)測(cè)資料分析其疫區(qū)類型的演變。以期闡明小尺度下(以自然村為單位)HFRS的時(shí)空動(dòng)態(tài)演化規(guī)律，為調(diào)整和優(yōu)化山東省HFRS的綜合防治策略提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 本研究結(jié)果表明： 1．1975年～2004年，莒南縣累計(jì)報(bào)告HFRS病例15685例，其中，男性占67.24％，，15歲～64歲的占89.80％，農(nóng)民占90.35％；此期間，莒南縣HFRS的年發(fā)病水平呈周期性變化，周期約為5～7年。HFRS發(fā)病具有季節(jié)性，其中，發(fā)病高峰期在秋冬季(10月～次年1月)的為姬鼠型，在春季(3月～6月)的為家鼠型，29年間，發(fā)病的季節(jié)性經(jīng)歷了秋冬峰的單峰型→以秋冬峰為主的雙峰型→以春峰為主的雙峰型的變化過(guò)程。
[Abstract]:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a natural disease that is prevalent in many countries in Eurasia.Among them, the incidence of HFRS in China accounts for more than 90% of the total incidence in the world, which is an important infectious disease that seriously endangers the health of Chinese residents.The results showed that Hantavirus was the main strain of HFRS virus in China, and the host animals were Apodemus agrarius and Rattus norvegicus.At present, although the epidemic characteristics of HFRS in our country have been basically understood, and comprehensive preventive measures such as vaccine immunization and rodent control have been carried out, HFRS is still in a state of epidemic, and some areas (such as Shandong Province) still have outbreaks from time to time, and new epidemic areas continue to appear.And the types of epidemic areas are also evolving.Therefore, it is necessary to further study the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of HFRS and the evolution of epidemic areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of feasible prevention and control measures.Junan County is the primary foci and high incidence areas of wild rat type HFRS in Shandong Province, and is also one of the monitoring points of HFRS in our country. Therefore, Junan County has a certain representativeness in studying the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of HFRS and the evolution of epidemic area types in Shandong Province.In this study, the incidence data of HFRS from September 1, 1975 to August 31, 2004 in Junan County were used, and the methods of disease spatial distribution probability model, trend surface analysis, disease spatial variation function and spline function interpolation were used.The spatial distribution and spatiotemporal dynamic changes of HFRS in Junan County were studied, and the evolution of its epidemic area was analyzed based on the monitoring data of rodent situation.The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution of HFRS in small scale (taking natural village as a unit) and to provide scientific basis for adjusting and optimizing the integrated control strategy of HFRS in Shandong Province.The results show that:1. From 1975 to 2004, 15685 cases of HFRS were reported in Junan County, of which the male accounted for 89.80 years old and the farmer 90.35.The annual incidence level of HFRS in Junan County changed periodically, and the period was about 57-7 years.The peak period of onset was in autumn and winter (October to January), and in spring (March to June), it was the family mouse type for 29 years.The seasonality of the disease has experienced the change process of the single peak type of autumn and winter peak and the double peak type of autumn and winter peak and the spring peak type.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2006
【分類號(hào)】：R512.8;R181.8

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 張桂琴;以疫苗接種為主的綜合干預(yù)模式預(yù)防HFRS的遠(yuǎn)期流行病學(xué)效果評(píng)價(jià)[D];山東大學(xué);2008年

本文編號(hào)：1745970