本文選題：慢性阻塞性肺疾病 + 隊列研究�。� 參考：《山東大學(xué)學(xué)報(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2017年12期

【摘要】：目的構(gòu)建健康管理隊列慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)的風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型,對模型預(yù)測效果進行評價,為COPD的防治提供理論依據(jù)。方法模型隊列的建立基于"山東多中心健康管理縱向觀察大數(shù)據(jù)隊列",共有33 383人進入隊列。通過對慢性阻塞性肺疾病發(fā)生的危險因素進行變量篩選,應(yīng)用Cox比例風(fēng)險回歸建立COPD的預(yù)測模型,十折交叉驗證法判別模型準確性,受試者工作特征曲線下面積(AUC)衡量模型的辨別能力。結(jié)果隊列觀察期間,共發(fā)生慢性阻塞性肺疾病136例,發(fā)病密度為118.08/10萬人年。最終納入模型的變量為年齡、性別、吸煙、白蛋白、血壓和血白細胞計數(shù)。模型ROC曲線下面積為0.872(95%CI:0.810~0.934),十折交叉驗證后ROC曲線下面積為0.866(95%CI:0.809~0.923)。結(jié)論構(gòu)建的慢性阻塞性肺疾病預(yù)測模型在健康管理隊列中有較好的預(yù)測能力。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish a risk prediction model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the health management cohort and evaluate the predictive effect of the model to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of COPD. Methods the model cohort was established on the basis of "Shandong Multi-Center Health Management Longitudinal observation big data Cohort". A total of 33,383 people were enrolled in the queue. By screening the risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the predictive model of COPD was established by using Cox proportional risk regression, and the accuracy of the model was judged by 10% cross-validation. The area under the operating characteristic curve measured the discriminant ability of the model. Results during the cohort observation, 136 cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were observed, with an incidence density of 118.08 / 100 thousand person-years. The variables included in the model were age, sex, smoking, albumin, blood pressure and white blood cell count. The area under the model ROC curve is 0.87295 and the area under the ROC curve is 0.86695 CI: 0.809 / 0.9233.The area under the ROC curve is 0.87295 and 0.809 respectively, and the area under the ROC curve is 0.86695% 0.809. Conclusion the predictive model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has good predictive ability in health management cohort.
【作者單位】： 山東大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院生物統(tǒng)計學(xué)系;山東大學(xué)齊魯生物醫(yī)學(xué)大數(shù)據(jù)中心;山東大學(xué)附屬山東省腫瘤醫(yī)院科教部;山東省醫(yī)學(xué)科學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(81273177)
【分類號】：R563.9

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