發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-01 12:30

  本文選題：溫度指標(biāo)　切入點(diǎn)：呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病　出處：《環(huán)境與健康雜志》2014年05期

【摘要】：目的比較和分析不同大氣溫度指標(biāo)在定量評價(jià)氣溫與人群呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡相關(guān)性方面的不同特點(diǎn)及優(yōu)劣。方法收集北京市H區(qū)2004—2008年氣象數(shù)據(jù)、呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病每日死亡人數(shù)及同期大氣污染物數(shù)據(jù),采用時(shí)間序列分析中廣義相加模型(GAM),通過平滑樣條函數(shù)控制長期趨勢、短期波動(dòng)、其他氣象因素及大氣污染物帶來的混雜效應(yīng),利用GCV值的大小來判斷模型擬合程度的優(yōu)劣,分析比較不同溫度指標(biāo)(日均溫,日最高溫,日最低溫,當(dāng)日溫差,隔日溫差)與全人群呼吸系統(tǒng)死亡的相關(guān)性。結(jié)果半?yún)?shù)模型擬合效果最優(yōu)指標(biāo)為日最高溫(GCV=1.290);日最高溫每升高1℃,發(fā)生呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的RR值為1.021(P0.05)。季節(jié)分層結(jié)果顯示,夏季日最高溫、日均溫每升高1℃,發(fā)生呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的RR值分別為1.040和1.053;冬季日最高溫、日均溫、當(dāng)日溫差每升高1℃,發(fā)生呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡的RR值分別為1.042、1.033和1.026,均有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(P0.05或P0.01);春、秋季尚未發(fā)現(xiàn)有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義的溫度指標(biāo)。春、夏季最優(yōu)溫度指標(biāo)分別為日最低溫(GCV=1.374)、日均溫(GCV=1.516),秋、冬季最優(yōu)溫度指標(biāo)均為日最高溫(GCV分別為1.439和1.500)。結(jié)論日最高溫與呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病死亡率的相關(guān)性最強(qiáng),是該類研究的優(yōu)選指標(biāo)。不同季節(jié)各溫度指標(biāo)的擬合優(yōu)度不同,就北京市的氣候特點(diǎn)而言,春、夏季分別優(yōu)選日最低溫、日均溫,秋、冬季均優(yōu)選日最高溫。
[Abstract]:Objective to compare and analyze the different characteristics and advantages of different atmospheric temperature indexes in quantitative evaluation of the correlation between air temperature and mortality of respiratory diseases. Methods the meteorological data from 2004 to 2008 in H area of Beijing were collected. The daily death toll of respiratory diseases and the data of atmospheric pollutants in the same period were analyzed by using the generalized additive model in time series analysis. The long-term trend and short-term fluctuation were controlled by smoothing spline function. Other meteorological factors and mixed effects caused by atmospheric pollutants are used to judge the fit degree of the model by using the GCV value, and different temperature indexes (daily average temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily temperature difference) are analyzed and compared. Results the best index of fitting effect of semi-parametric model was: daily maximum temperature, GCVV 1.290, RR value of respiratory disease death occurred at 1 鈩，

本文編號：1695613