本文選題：致死性畸形　切入點(diǎn)：超聲　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(醫(yī)學(xué)版)》2015年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的:分析某醫(yī)院2010年至2014年超聲診斷的六大類致死性畸形發(fā)病情況,并應(yīng)用自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型(ARIMA)建立發(fā)病預(yù)測(cè)模型。方法:收集某醫(yī)院2010年1月至2014年12月采用四維超聲系統(tǒng)篩查發(fā)現(xiàn)的六大類致死性畸形病例資料,分析其發(fā)病規(guī)律;采用2010年1月至2013年12月的數(shù)據(jù)擬合ARIMA模型,并用該模型對(duì)2014年1月至12月的發(fā)病率進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果:2010年1月至2014年12月共檢查86 018例,篩查出六大類致死性畸形胎兒1 063例,總發(fā)病率為12.36‰,其中發(fā)病率最高的為嚴(yán)重開放性脊柱裂(3.67‰),其后依次為單腔心(3.39‰)、腹壁裂-內(nèi)臟外翻(2.06‰)、無腦兒(1.77‰)、致死性骨發(fā)育不良(0.79‰)、嚴(yán)重腦膨出(0.67‰)。ARI(1,0)模型能夠較好地預(yù)測(cè)六大類致死性畸形月發(fā)病率,具有較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度(MAD為0.381 7,MAPE為28.01%,MSE為0.061 8)。結(jié)論:六大類致死性畸形的發(fā)病率仍較高,ARI(1,0)模型能較好地用于其發(fā)病率的預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:Objective: to analyze the incidence of six kinds of fatal deformities diagnosed by ultrasound from 2010 to 2014 in a hospital. An autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) was used to establish a predictive model. Methods: from January 2010 to December 2014, six major types of fatal malformations were screened by four-dimensional ultrasound system in a hospital and their incidence patterns were analyzed. The data from January 2010 to December 2013 were used to fit the ARIMA model and to predict the incidence from January 2014 to #date.Results: 86 018 cases were examined from January 2014 to January 2014, and 1 063 cases of fatal malformation were screened out. The total incidence rate was 12.36 鈥，

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