肉牛胃腸道甲烷排放模型估算精度的評估分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-10 11:32
【摘要】：本研究旨在評估6個經(jīng)典的肉牛胃腸道甲烷排放估算模型的預(yù)測精度,分析影響模型預(yù)測精度的原因。在湖南望城肉牛養(yǎng)殖場選用17頭體況良好的湘中黑牛,分兩階段測定了肉牛體重、營養(yǎng)組分采食量及胃腸道甲烷排放量。本研究選擇6個經(jīng)典的肉牛胃腸道甲烷排放估算模型,包括:以干物質(zhì)采食量(DMI)為核心參數(shù)的估算模型1[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=1.246×DMI(kg·d~(-1))+0.996]和模型2[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=-2.07+2.636×DMI(kg·d~(-1))-0.105×DMI2(kg·d~(-1))];以纖維攝入量為核心參數(shù)的估算模型3[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=5.58+0.848×NDF(kg·d~(-1))]和模型4[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=3.41+0.520×DMI(kg·d~(-1))-0.996×ADF(kg·d~(-1))+1.15×NDF(kg·d~(-1))];以總能攝入量為核心參數(shù)的估算模型5[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=0.065×GEI(MJ·d~(-1))]和模型6[CH4(MJ·d~(-1))=0.081×GEI(MJ·d~(-1))-0.024]。利用預(yù)測誤差均方(Mean squared prediction error,MSPE)和一致性相關(guān)系數(shù)(Consistent correlation coefficient,CCC)兩種分析方法評估6個估算模型預(yù)測肉牛胃腸道甲烷排放量的精度以及影響模型估算精度的原因。結(jié)果表明,模型5(CCC=0.86)的估測精度最高,模型1(CCC=0.74)和6(CCC=0.79)次之,模型2(CCC=0.66)、3(CCC=0.22)和4(CCC=0.54)的估算精度最低;模型1和2的估算誤差主要來自于整體偏差的偏離(分別為48.8%和70.3%);模型3的估算誤差主要來自于回歸斜率的偏離(47.6%);模型4的偏差主要來自于整體偏差(29.2%)和回歸斜率偏離(28.6%)。IPCC(2006)Tier2推薦的以總能GEI為單一變量的模型5是本試驗中6個估算公式預(yù)測精度最高的模型。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prediction accuracy of six classical models for estimating methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle, and to analyze the reasons that affect the prediction accuracy of the models. A total of 17 black cattle were selected from Wangcheng Beef Farm in Hunan Province. The body weight, nutrient intake and methane emission from gastrointestinal tract were measured in two stages. In this study, six classical models for estimating methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle were selected. Model 1 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 1.246 脳 DMI (kg d-1] and model 2 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = -2] were used as core parameters of dry matter intake (DMI). 07 2.636 脳 DMI (kg D1-0.105 脳 DMI2 (kg D1)]; Model 3 [CH4 (MJ d ~ (-1) = 5.58 0.848 脳 NDF (kg d ~ (-1)] and model 4 [CH4 (MJ d ~ (-1) = 3.41 0.520 脳 DMI (kg d ~ (-1)] -1)-0.996 脳 ADF (kg D1) 1.15 脳 NDF (kg D1]; Model 5 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 0.065 脳 GEI (MJ D1] and model 6 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 0.081 脳 GEI (MJ d-1-0.024]. The prediction error mean square (Mean squared prediction error,MSPE) and consistency correlation coefficient (Consistent correlation coefficient,CCC) were used to evaluate the accuracy of six models for predicting methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle and the reasons influencing the accuracy of the models. The results showed that the estimation accuracy of model 5 (CCC=0.86) was the highest, model 1 (CCC=0.74) and model 6 (CCC=0.79) took the second place, and models 2 (CCC=0.66), 3 (CCC=0.22) and 4 (CCC=0.54) had the lowest accuracy. The estimation error of model 1 and 2 mainly comes from the deviation of the whole deviation (48.8% and 70.3% respectively), the estimation error of model 3 mainly comes from the deviation of regression slope (47.6%). The deviation of model 4 mainly comes from the global deviation (29.2%) and regression slope deviation (28.6%). IPCC (2006). Model 5, with total energy GEI as a single variable, recommended by Tier2, is the model with the highest prediction accuracy of the six estimation formulas in this experiment.
【作者單位】： 湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)動物科學(xué)技術(shù)學(xué)院;湖南畜禽安全生產(chǎn)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;中國科學(xué)院亞熱帶農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(31561143009;31472133) 國家科技計劃項目(2016YFD0500504) 湖南省科技計劃項目(2015WK3043) 中國科學(xué)院青年促進會項目
【分類號】：S823.92
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prediction accuracy of six classical models for estimating methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle, and to analyze the reasons that affect the prediction accuracy of the models. A total of 17 black cattle were selected from Wangcheng Beef Farm in Hunan Province. The body weight, nutrient intake and methane emission from gastrointestinal tract were measured in two stages. In this study, six classical models for estimating methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle were selected. Model 1 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 1.246 脳 DMI (kg d-1] and model 2 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = -2] were used as core parameters of dry matter intake (DMI). 07 2.636 脳 DMI (kg D1-0.105 脳 DMI2 (kg D1)]; Model 3 [CH4 (MJ d ~ (-1) = 5.58 0.848 脳 NDF (kg d ~ (-1)] and model 4 [CH4 (MJ d ~ (-1) = 3.41 0.520 脳 DMI (kg d ~ (-1)] -1)-0.996 脳 ADF (kg D1) 1.15 脳 NDF (kg D1]; Model 5 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 0.065 脳 GEI (MJ D1] and model 6 [CH4 (MJ d-1) = 0.081 脳 GEI (MJ d-1-0.024]. The prediction error mean square (Mean squared prediction error,MSPE) and consistency correlation coefficient (Consistent correlation coefficient,CCC) were used to evaluate the accuracy of six models for predicting methane emissions from gastrointestinal tract of beef cattle and the reasons influencing the accuracy of the models. The results showed that the estimation accuracy of model 5 (CCC=0.86) was the highest, model 1 (CCC=0.74) and model 6 (CCC=0.79) took the second place, and models 2 (CCC=0.66), 3 (CCC=0.22) and 4 (CCC=0.54) had the lowest accuracy. The estimation error of model 1 and 2 mainly comes from the deviation of the whole deviation (48.8% and 70.3% respectively), the estimation error of model 3 mainly comes from the deviation of regression slope (47.6%). The deviation of model 4 mainly comes from the global deviation (29.2%) and regression slope deviation (28.6%). IPCC (2006). Model 5, with total energy GEI as a single variable, recommended by Tier2, is the model with the highest prediction accuracy of the six estimation formulas in this experiment.
【作者單位】： 湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)動物科學(xué)技術(shù)學(xué)院;湖南畜禽安全生產(chǎn)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;中國科學(xué)院亞熱帶農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)研究所;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(31561143009;31472133) 國家科技計劃項目(2016YFD0500504) 湖南省科技計劃項目(2015WK3043) 中國科學(xué)院青年促進會項目
【分類號】：S823.92
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