發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-03 12:47

  本文選題：疾病防治　切入點(diǎn)：馬爾可夫鏈　出處：《重慶師范大學(xué)》2007年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】： 隨著自然環(huán)境的變化和科學(xué)技術(shù)的飛速發(fā)展，許多新的疾病在不斷增加，它們越來越威脅人類的生存，因此疾病防治在醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生工作中尤為顯得突出和緊迫。應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)知識對疾病防治進(jìn)行定量分析，對反映疾病的變化趨勢、提高疾病的防治技術(shù)和幫助各級政府科學(xué)決策都有著極其重要的意義和不可忽視的作用。 本文利用馬爾可夫鏈、灰色理論以及路徑分析三種數(shù)學(xué)方法，針對疾病防治中相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的不同特點(diǎn)，從不同角度進(jìn)行定量研究，更有效地挖掘出各種數(shù)據(jù)資料蘊(yùn)涵的信息，豐富了疾病防治的定量分析方法，為臨床醫(yī)學(xué)科技工作者提供了一些具有參考價(jià)值的信息。具體地，本文進(jìn)行了如下系列研究： 1．利用馬爾可夫鏈方法對大慶市1980～1999年流行性腦脊髓膜炎病死率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行定量分析，預(yù)測出未來年份的病死率，從而有效地挖掘出疾病的流行特征，為該疾病的衛(wèi)生防疫工作提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)。 2．利用灰色系統(tǒng)理論中的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析、GM(1，，1)模型、GM(1，n)模型、灰色災(zāi)變預(yù)測模型等方法，分別對角膜堿燒傷血管形成因素的實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)、1984～1997年流行性出血熱監(jiān)測區(qū)流行性出血熱(EHF)的年發(fā)病率、大慶市1980～1999年流行性腦脊髓膜炎病死率數(shù)據(jù)、某醫(yī)院1997～2001年間各月產(chǎn)婦分娩人數(shù)數(shù)據(jù)等資料進(jìn)行了關(guān)聯(lián)分析，災(zāi)變預(yù)測和季節(jié)變動分析。結(jié)果表明，將灰色系統(tǒng)理論應(yīng)用于疾病防治的定量分析可以得到比傳統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)分析方法更深刻和更有意義的一些結(jié)果，從而可為醫(yī)學(xué)科技工作者提供更多具有參考價(jià)值的信息。 3．利用路徑分析的方法，對某醫(yī)院1998-2002年住院人次及有關(guān)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行定量分析，找出了影響住院人次的直接因素和間接因素，建立了路徑圖，并求出各影響因素對住院人次的路徑作用系數(shù)，構(gòu)建了影響住院人次因素的因果關(guān)系模型，可為醫(yī)院管理的早期干預(yù)提供定量參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the change of natural environment and the rapid development of science and technology, many new diseases are increasing, and they threaten the survival of mankind more and more. Therefore, disease prevention and treatment is particularly prominent and urgent in medical and health work. The quantitative analysis of disease prevention and treatment is carried out by applying mathematical knowledge, and the change trend of disease is reflected. It is very important and important to improve the technology of disease prevention and control and to help the governments at all levels to make scientific decisions. In this paper, three mathematical methods, Markov chain, grey theory and path analysis, are used to quantitatively study the related data in disease prevention and treatment from different angles, so as to mine the information contained in various data more effectively. It enriches the quantitative analysis methods of disease prevention and control, and provides some valuable information for clinical medical science and technology workers. Specifically, this paper has carried out the following series of studies:. 1. The mortality data of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Daqing City from 1980 to 1999 were quantitatively analyzed by Markov chain method. The mortality of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in the future was predicted, and the epidemic characteristics of the disease were effectively excavated. It provides a scientific basis for the health and epidemic prevention of the disease. 2. Using the grey relation analysis in the grey system theory, the GM1 / 1) model and the grey disaster prediction model, etc. The annual incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever (EHF) in the surveillance area of epidemic hemorrhagic fever from 1984 to 1997 and the fatality rate of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis from 1980 to 1999 in Daqing City were analyzed. Correlation analysis, disaster prediction and seasonal variation analysis were carried out on the data of the number of births per month in a hospital from 1997 to 2001. The results show that, Applying the grey system theory to the quantitative analysis of disease prevention and treatment, we can get some more profound and meaningful results than the traditional data analysis method, thus providing more valuable information for medical science and technology workers. 3. By using the method of path analysis, the paper makes quantitative analysis on the number of hospitalizations and related indexes in a certain hospital from 1998 to 2002, finds out the direct and indirect factors that affect the number of hospitalizations, and establishes the path map. The path-action coefficient of the influencing factors on the number of hospital attendances was calculated, and the causality model of the factors was constructed, which can provide a quantitative reference for the early intervention of hospital management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2007
【分類號】：R311

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會議論文 前1條

1 楊白云;;GM(1，1)模型在預(yù)測云南省艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者上的應(yīng)用研究[A];和諧發(fā)展與系統(tǒng)工程——中國系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)會第十五屆年會論文集[C];2008年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 湯云;應(yīng)用灰色理論預(yù)測病毒性肝炎發(fā)病情況研究[D];第三軍醫(yī)大學(xué);2009年

本文編號：1561102