本文選題：媒介生物　切入點(diǎn)：生物入侵　出處：《中國(guó)血吸蟲(chóng)病防治雜志》2016年03期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的了解騷擾阿蚊(Armigeres subalbatus)在我國(guó)的擴(kuò)散趨勢(shì)及種群變化,同時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)其潛在適生區(qū)。方法野外調(diào)查獲得標(biāo)本,查對(duì)館藏標(biāo)本相關(guān)記錄,結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)報(bào)道分析騷擾阿蚊擴(kuò)散及種群動(dòng)態(tài)趨勢(shì)。整理騷擾阿蚊分布記錄,結(jié)合20個(gè)環(huán)境相關(guān)變量,建立生態(tài)小生境模型,比較其潛在適生區(qū)的變化。通過(guò)ROC曲線分析檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ蜏?zhǔn)確性,利用刀切法逐一分析環(huán)境變量貢獻(xiàn)值。結(jié)果野外調(diào)查在山東濰坊及威海地區(qū)發(fā)現(xiàn)騷擾阿蚊新分布點(diǎn)。結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)及館藏標(biāo)本分析發(fā)現(xiàn)該物種正逐漸向古北界華北區(qū)擴(kuò)散,目前已接近北緯42°地區(qū),部分地區(qū)種群已逐漸發(fā)展為區(qū)域主要物種。本研究收集并整理了騷擾阿蚊相關(guān)資料,共獲得294個(gè)分布記錄。研究以2000年為時(shí)間分隔,運(yùn)用Maxent軟件分別構(gòu)建了2000年和2016年的分布預(yù)測(cè)模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)2016年的預(yù)測(cè)分布范圍較2000年已明顯向北推移,即騷擾阿蚊的潛在適生區(qū)呈向北擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì)。模型檢驗(yàn)ROC分析結(jié)果顯示兩個(gè)模型AUC值分別為0.980和0.982,模型可信度極高。刀切法分析結(jié)果表明最暖季度平均濕度、最濕月份濕度和最濕季度濕度對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)騷擾阿蚊的分布具有重要影響。結(jié)論騷擾阿蚊種群分布向北逐漸擴(kuò)散,氣候變暖可能是造成擴(kuò)散的原因。該物種的擴(kuò)散一定程度影響當(dāng)?shù)匚梅N組成,同時(shí)可能會(huì)增加部分蚊媒疾病傳播的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:Objective to investigate the diffusion trend and population change of Armigeres subalbatus in China, and to predict its potential suitable area. The spread and population dynamics of Anopheles albopictus were analyzed based on the literature reports. The distribution records of Anopheles albopictus were collected and 20 environmental variables were used to establish ecological niche model. The accuracy of the model was verified by ROC curve analysis. Results A new distribution point of Anopheles albopictus was found in Weifang and Weihai areas of Shandong Province. Combined with literature and collection analysis, it was found that the species was gradually spreading to North China. At present, the area of latitude 42 擄N has been approached, and some areas have gradually developed into the main species in the region. In this study, 294 records of distribution were collected and collated. The study was separated by 2000. The distribution prediction models of 2000 and 2016 were constructed by using Maxent software respectively. It was found that the forecast distribution range of 2016 was significantly northward than that of 2016. The results of ROC analysis showed that the AUC values of the two models were 0.980 and 0.982respectively, and the reliability of the models was very high. The wetter month humidity and the west-season humidity have important influence on forecasting the distribution of Anopheles albopictus. Conclusion the population distribution of Anopheles albopictus spread northward. Global warming may be the cause of the spread, which affects the composition of local mosquitoes to some extent and may increase the risk of some mosquito-borne diseases.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)疾病預(yù)防控制中心寄生蟲(chóng)病預(yù)防控制所 衛(wèi)生部寄生蟲(chóng)病原與媒介生物學(xué)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室 科技部國(guó)家級(jí)熱帶病國(guó)際聯(lián)合研究中心 世界衛(wèi)生組織熱帶病合作中心;
【基金】：中國(guó)CDC寄生蟲(chóng)病預(yù)防控制所防治技術(shù)儲(chǔ)備科研基金(CB.16003)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R384.1

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