西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值動態(tài)變化及預(yù)測研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-06 18:04
【摘要】：隨著城市化和工業(yè)化快速發(fā)展,引起的城市生態(tài)環(huán)境污染和破壞問題日益嚴(yán)重,現(xiàn)代都市農(nóng)業(yè)的生態(tài)服務(wù)功能對于塑造城市健康的生存空間和生態(tài)環(huán)境愈加重要,都市農(nóng)業(yè)能為城市提供糧食等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品,凈化和調(diào)節(jié)大氣環(huán)境,還能滿足城市居民休閑觀光旅游等多種功能。伴隨著西安工農(nóng)業(yè)和城市化快速發(fā)展,西安市區(qū)以及周邊區(qū)域的河流、土地、大氣環(huán)境等遭到嚴(yán)重的污染破壞,都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)是生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分之一,不僅為城市提供生產(chǎn)服務(wù)功能,還提供城市大氣凈化與調(diào)節(jié)、水源涵養(yǎng)以及城市綠色景觀塑造等生態(tài)服務(wù)功能,這些功能對維持城市及郊區(qū)生態(tài)環(huán)境健康發(fā)展愈益重要。當(dāng)前,都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)服務(wù)功能及其價值測評研究成為國內(nèi)生態(tài)學(xué)、地理學(xué)、生態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域各學(xué)者研究的熱門問題。本文以西安市為研究對象,基于遙感數(shù)據(jù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)社會統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)以及實地調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù),運用3S技術(shù)及生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值理論和方法,并結(jié)合西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,對當(dāng)量因子做適當(dāng)修改,測評都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值,在分析的基礎(chǔ)之上,建立灰色預(yù)測GM(1,1)和馬爾科夫動態(tài)預(yù)測模型,模擬預(yù)測未來幾年西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值變化趨勢。主要研究結(jié)論如下：1.都市農(nóng)業(yè)用地變化：(1)2000-2013年,西安市各農(nóng)業(yè)用地類型的面積均發(fā)生了不同程度的變化,都市農(nóng)業(yè)用地類型主要以耕地和林地為主。(2)西安市2000-2013年農(nóng)業(yè)用地類型動態(tài)度的變化與農(nóng)業(yè)用地類型面積的變化幅度一致,其中園地的增加最快,其次是草地和居民用地；(3)2000-2013年期間,西安市的整體農(nóng)業(yè)用地利用程度處于發(fā)展期,發(fā)展速度較快。2.西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)服務(wù)價值的時間變化特征： (1)2000、2006、2013年西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值依次為236.76×108元、210.22×108元、219.85×108元,呈現(xiàn)先減少后增加的趨勢,在空間分布上呈現(xiàn)從南向北遞減的趨勢。(2)從都市農(nóng)業(yè)用地類型來看,2000-2006年,林地在生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值中的貢獻(xiàn)率最大,從2006-2013年,林地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值占總價值的比例增加了3.86%。2000-2013年,園地的面積急劇增加,所提供的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值不斷增加,提高了5.52%。14年間,耕地、水體的面積不斷減少,提供的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值分別減少了2.07%、1.47%。(3)從各單項生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值來看,2000-2013年各單項因子的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值呈下降趨勢,但變化程度各有不同,其中水源涵養(yǎng)與廢物處理的價值減少最大,娛樂文化與食物生產(chǎn)的價值減少最小,土壤形成與保護(hù)是各單項生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值中最大的。3.西安市都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值的空間變化特征：都市農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值減幅相對比較大的區(qū)域集中分布藍(lán)田中北部和臨潼東南部地區(qū),從2000-2013年減少范圍呈現(xiàn)縮小趨勢,而周至、戶縣和長安區(qū)部分地區(qū),生態(tài)服務(wù)價值有小幅度的增加。主要是因為這些地區(qū),林地、園地趨于集中分布,近幾年都市農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展,調(diào)整農(nóng)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),建立了一系列都市農(nóng)業(yè)示范園區(qū)以及旅游農(nóng)業(yè)觀光帶,林地、園地面積增加幅度大,這些區(qū)域表現(xiàn)出的生態(tài)服務(wù)價值較高,構(gòu)成西安市社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的生態(tài)屏障。4.模擬預(yù)測結(jié)果表明：(1)從單項功能服務(wù)價值的預(yù)測趨勢來看,娛樂文化和大氣調(diào)節(jié)功能的生態(tài)服務(wù)價值增幅相對比較大,隨著政府不斷加大都市農(nóng)業(yè)示范園區(qū)的建設(shè),形成各種示范園區(qū)、無公害蔬菜生產(chǎn)基地以及觀光園區(qū),林地和園地面積將不斷增加,園地和林地所提供的氣體調(diào)節(jié)和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)維護(hù)能力將會增強(qiáng)。隨著人們物質(zhì)消費水平的提高,更多追求精神文化和娛樂休閑方面的享受,娛樂文化功能的地位將不斷提升。(2)從生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)總價值預(yù)測結(jié)果來看,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值總量呈增加趨勢,從2013-2033年,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值年均增長14469.5萬元。從2000年到2033年,耕地的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值整體呈下降趨勢,而園地和林地的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值不斷上升,特別是園地的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價值變化比較明顯,從2000年的11640.8萬元增加到2013的132146.2萬元,隨著政府對農(nóng)業(yè)示范園區(qū)不斷鼓勵和建設(shè),到2033年增加到143892萬元,水體和草地提供的生態(tài)服務(wù)價值略有增加。總的來說,從生態(tài)服務(wù)總價值可以看出,西安市未來十幾年的農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)基本是呈良性發(fā)展的。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the problems of urban ecological environment pollution and destruction are becoming more and more serious. The ecological service function of modern urban agriculture is more and more important to shape the living space and ecological environment of urban health. the invention can purify and adjust the atmospheric environment, and can also meet various functions of urban residents' leisure and sightseeing. With the rapid development of Xi 'an industry and agriculture and urbanization, the urban agricultural ecosystem is one of the important components of the ecosystem, and not only provides the production service function for the city, It also provides the functions of the urban air purification and regulation, the water conservation and the green landscape of the city, which is of great importance to the maintenance of the healthy development of the ecological environment in the urban and rural areas. At present, the function of urban agricultural ecological service and its evaluation of its value become a hot topic for scholars in the fields of domestic ecology, geography and ecological economics. Based on remote sensing data, economic and social statistics and field investigation data, this paper uses 3S technology and ecosystem service value theory and method to make appropriate modification to the equivalent factor based on the current situation of urban agricultural development in Xi' an. On the basis of the analysis, the grey forecast GM (1,1) and the Markov dynamic prediction model are established to simulate the change trend of the service value of the urban agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an in the next few years. The main findings are as follows: 1. Urban agricultural land change: (1) In 2000-2013, the area of various agricultural land types in Xi' an has changed, and the type of urban agricultural land is mainly cultivated land and forest land. (2) The change of the dynamic attitude of the agricultural land type in Xi 'an in 2000-2013 is consistent with the change of the area of the agricultural land type, in which the increase of the land area is the fastest, followed by the land use of the grassland and the residents; (3) During the period 2000-2013, the utilization degree of the whole agricultural land in Xi' an is in the development period. the speed of development is fast. The time-changing characteristics of the value of the urban agricultural ecological service in Xi 'an City are: (1) The total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi' an City in the year 2000, 2006 and 2013 is 236. 76, 108 yuan, 210. 22, 108 yuan, 21.9. 85 to 108 yuan, and the trend of increasing after the first decrease is presented, and the trend of decreasing from the south to the north is presented in the spatial distribution. (2) From the type of urban agricultural land, in 2000-2006, the contribution rate of the forest land in the value of ecosystem services was the largest. From 2006 to 2013, the total value of the forest ecosystem service value increased by 3.86%. The area of the garden area increased sharply in 2000-2013. The value of ecosystem services provided increased by 5.52%. During the 14-year period, the area of cultivated land and water was reduced, and the value of ecosystem services provided was decreased by 2.07% and 1.47%, respectively. (3) From the value of each individual ecosystem services, the value of the ecosystem services of the individual factors in the period 2000-2013 is declining, but the degree of change is different, among which the value of water conservation and waste treatment is reduced, the value of the entertainment culture and the food production is reduced to the minimum, Soil formation and protection is the largest in the value of individual ecosystem services. The spatial change of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi 'an city: the relatively large area of the total value of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services is concentrated in the north and the south-eastern part of the north and south-east of the city, and the reduction trend of the urban agricultural ecosystem services from 2000 to 2013 is reduced, and the period to, There is a small increase in the value of the ecological service in some parts of the county and the long-an area. mainly because of the concentrated distribution of the forest land and the garden, the development of urban agriculture in recent years, the adjustment of the agricultural structure, the establishment of a series of urban agricultural demonstration parks and the tourism agricultural sightseeing belt, the forest land and the garden area, The ecological services represented by these regions are of high value and constitute an ecological barrier to the social and economic development of Xi' an. The results of the simulation show that: (1) The value of the ecological service of the entertainment culture and the air conditioning function is relatively large from the forecast trend of the value of the single function service, and as the government continuously increases the construction of the urban agricultural demonstration park, various demonstration parks are formed. The area of the pollution-free vegetable production base and the sightseeing park, the forest land and the garden area will be continuously increased, and the gas regulation and the ecological system maintenance capacity provided by the garden land and the forest land will be enhanced. With the improvement of people's material consumption level, more pursuit of the enjoyment of spiritual culture and entertainment and leisure, the status of the function of entertainment and culture will be promoted. (2) From the result of the total value forecast of ecosystem services, the total value of ecosystem services is increasing, from 2013 to 2033, the annual growth of ecosystem service value is 146.9 million yuan. From 2000 to 2033, the value of ecosystem services in the cultivated land is declining, while the value of ecosystem services in the garden and the forest land is increasing, especially the value of the ecosystem services in the park is relatively obvious, from 116480,000 yuan in 2000 to 132146 million yuan in 2013. With the government's continuous encouragement and construction of the agricultural demonstration park, the value of the ecological service provided by the water body and the grassland increased slightly from 2033 to 143892 million yuan. In general, from the total value of the ecological service, it can be seen that the agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an over the next ten years is a benign development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.22
本文編號：2315063
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the problems of urban ecological environment pollution and destruction are becoming more and more serious. The ecological service function of modern urban agriculture is more and more important to shape the living space and ecological environment of urban health. the invention can purify and adjust the atmospheric environment, and can also meet various functions of urban residents' leisure and sightseeing. With the rapid development of Xi 'an industry and agriculture and urbanization, the urban agricultural ecosystem is one of the important components of the ecosystem, and not only provides the production service function for the city, It also provides the functions of the urban air purification and regulation, the water conservation and the green landscape of the city, which is of great importance to the maintenance of the healthy development of the ecological environment in the urban and rural areas. At present, the function of urban agricultural ecological service and its evaluation of its value become a hot topic for scholars in the fields of domestic ecology, geography and ecological economics. Based on remote sensing data, economic and social statistics and field investigation data, this paper uses 3S technology and ecosystem service value theory and method to make appropriate modification to the equivalent factor based on the current situation of urban agricultural development in Xi' an. On the basis of the analysis, the grey forecast GM (1,1) and the Markov dynamic prediction model are established to simulate the change trend of the service value of the urban agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an in the next few years. The main findings are as follows: 1. Urban agricultural land change: (1) In 2000-2013, the area of various agricultural land types in Xi' an has changed, and the type of urban agricultural land is mainly cultivated land and forest land. (2) The change of the dynamic attitude of the agricultural land type in Xi 'an in 2000-2013 is consistent with the change of the area of the agricultural land type, in which the increase of the land area is the fastest, followed by the land use of the grassland and the residents; (3) During the period 2000-2013, the utilization degree of the whole agricultural land in Xi' an is in the development period. the speed of development is fast. The time-changing characteristics of the value of the urban agricultural ecological service in Xi 'an City are: (1) The total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi' an City in the year 2000, 2006 and 2013 is 236. 76, 108 yuan, 210. 22, 108 yuan, 21.9. 85 to 108 yuan, and the trend of increasing after the first decrease is presented, and the trend of decreasing from the south to the north is presented in the spatial distribution. (2) From the type of urban agricultural land, in 2000-2006, the contribution rate of the forest land in the value of ecosystem services was the largest. From 2006 to 2013, the total value of the forest ecosystem service value increased by 3.86%. The area of the garden area increased sharply in 2000-2013. The value of ecosystem services provided increased by 5.52%. During the 14-year period, the area of cultivated land and water was reduced, and the value of ecosystem services provided was decreased by 2.07% and 1.47%, respectively. (3) From the value of each individual ecosystem services, the value of the ecosystem services of the individual factors in the period 2000-2013 is declining, but the degree of change is different, among which the value of water conservation and waste treatment is reduced, the value of the entertainment culture and the food production is reduced to the minimum, Soil formation and protection is the largest in the value of individual ecosystem services. The spatial change of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services in Xi 'an city: the relatively large area of the total value of the total value of the urban agricultural ecosystem services is concentrated in the north and the south-eastern part of the north and south-east of the city, and the reduction trend of the urban agricultural ecosystem services from 2000 to 2013 is reduced, and the period to, There is a small increase in the value of the ecological service in some parts of the county and the long-an area. mainly because of the concentrated distribution of the forest land and the garden, the development of urban agriculture in recent years, the adjustment of the agricultural structure, the establishment of a series of urban agricultural demonstration parks and the tourism agricultural sightseeing belt, the forest land and the garden area, The ecological services represented by these regions are of high value and constitute an ecological barrier to the social and economic development of Xi' an. The results of the simulation show that: (1) The value of the ecological service of the entertainment culture and the air conditioning function is relatively large from the forecast trend of the value of the single function service, and as the government continuously increases the construction of the urban agricultural demonstration park, various demonstration parks are formed. The area of the pollution-free vegetable production base and the sightseeing park, the forest land and the garden area will be continuously increased, and the gas regulation and the ecological system maintenance capacity provided by the garden land and the forest land will be enhanced. With the improvement of people's material consumption level, more pursuit of the enjoyment of spiritual culture and entertainment and leisure, the status of the function of entertainment and culture will be promoted. (2) From the result of the total value forecast of ecosystem services, the total value of ecosystem services is increasing, from 2013 to 2033, the annual growth of ecosystem service value is 146.9 million yuan. From 2000 to 2033, the value of ecosystem services in the cultivated land is declining, while the value of ecosystem services in the garden and the forest land is increasing, especially the value of the ecosystem services in the park is relatively obvious, from 116480,000 yuan in 2000 to 132146 million yuan in 2013. With the government's continuous encouragement and construction of the agricultural demonstration park, the value of the ecological service provided by the water body and the grassland increased slightly from 2033 to 143892 million yuan. In general, from the total value of the ecological service, it can be seen that the agricultural ecosystem in Xi 'an over the next ten years is a benign development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F323.22
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